Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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700 FXUS64 KSHV 090308 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1008 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Expanded Tornado Watch 210 in time to midnight and included some Arkansas counties for a while longer too active SVR warnings. && .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Primarily to warm overnight lows at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The HRRR has been wrong before, so we will give these storms a couple more hours of breathing room along our I-30 corridor with the Tornado Watch editing so to speak. Lots of CAPE and momentum now with radar trying to play connect the dots on these towers. We have kept some maybe severe wording in for the overnight at this time. More to come by midnight and of course and in our new zone package for the day ahead with our broad I-20 corridor Enhanced Risk for day 2. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Quieter weather briefly returns through the weekend before precipitation chances are reintroduced early next week. Quasi- zonal flow aloft will allow for a mid-level trough to drift eastward across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This trough, in combination with ridging shifting further east across the Mississippi River, will maintain enhanced southerly flow and moisture through most of early next week. Precipitation chances will remain through the same time period as a result. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Widespread haze originating from Mexico and Central America will result in some instances of MVFR visibilities at the start of the period. A complex of strong to severe convection is expected to enter portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas around 09/02z before moving southeast affecting most TAF sites. The storms should begin to rapidly weaken after midnight local time, so convection was not mentioned at KMLU or KLFK. Low clouds are expected to rapidly develop after the storms dissipate resulting in widespread IFR/LIFR flight conditions. A slow improvement is expected after daybreak Thursday, but VFR conditions should return to most sites by 09/18z. More strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated to affect Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas, potentially affecting KTYR, near the end of this TAF cycle. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 90 67 83 / 40 30 50 0 MLU 75 90 65 81 / 30 20 60 0 DEQ 66 86 58 80 / 60 30 30 0 TXK 72 87 62 81 / 70 30 40 0 ELD 72 86 61 80 / 60 20 40 0 TYR 72 88 65 82 / 40 40 40 0 GGG 74 88 65 82 / 40 30 50 0 LFK 74 92 67 84 / 10 30 40 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...09