Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
290 FXXX10 KWNP 061231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2024 May 06 May 07 May 08 00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 2.33 3.00 2.67 06-09UT 2.33 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.67 1.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 1.67 2.00 15-18UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 1.00 18-21UT 3.67 3.67 2.00 21-00UT 1.67 2.67 2.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 06 May due to persistent CME activity. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024 May 06 May 07 May 08 S1 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 06 2024 0635 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024 May 06 May 07 May 08 R1-R2 90% 90% 90% R3 or greater 50% 50% 50% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.