965
FXUS63 KTOP 161731
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1231 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible over east central Kansas today, but
  severe weather is unlikely.

- Temperatures warm up by the weekend with highs in the 80s
  forecast through the beginning of next week.

- Will need to watch out for the potential of severe storms
  Sunday afternoon/evening and again Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

08Z water vapor imagery showed a shortwave trough propagating
east over the Dakotas into MN. There was also an area mid and
upper level low pressure left behind over AZ. At the surface,
low pressure was noted near the Big Bend of TX with an inverted
trough axis extending through central KS.

For today through Friday, the main driver of the forecast will be
where the weak boundary or inverted trough is since models don`t
have a lot of synoptic scale dynamics impacting the central plains.
This boundary is expected to hang up across east central KS today
with modest instability but weak bulk shear. So will kept some
chance POPs across east central KS for the potential for pop up
showers and thunderstorms. The boundary kind of washes out by Friday
while the models are coming into a better consensus with keeping the
energy over AZ to the south of the forecast area Friday. So have
continued to trend lower on POPs across east central KS. There
remains some instability with little to no inhibition, but with a
lack of forcing it is hard to see anything more than isolated
activity developing so kept some slight chance POPs. Temps should
see a warming trend through the end of the work week as southerly
low level flow advects warmer air north.

A lack of shortwave activity or boundary to focus low level
convergence on Saturday means chances for precipitation are around
10 percent. For Sunday through Tuesday, models continue to show a
southwesterly upper flow with one shortwave passing through the
region Sunday night and a second late Monday or Tuesday. So POPs are
spread throughout the period with likely POPs Sunday night and high
chance POPs Monday night. GFS progs suggest there is some risk for
severe thunderstorms Sunday with a warm moist airmass advecting
through northeast KS and CAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg developing
in the heat of the day. Bulk shear of 40KT to 50KT would support
organized updrafts as well. There are some differences but the ECMWF
generally shows a similar picture with the overall pattern. So I
wouldn`t be surprised if SPC includes some probability of severe
storms for Sunday afternoon and evening thinking that storms could
develop along a dryline to the west of the forecast area and move
east. A similar setup with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70
and a conditionally unstable airmass over the forecast area is seen
in the operational models for Monday evening. The shortwave Tuesday
is progged to bring a boundary through the state by Wednesday. This
should knock highs back a few degrees and limit chances for
precipitation on Wednesday. Until then warm weather is forecast for
Saturday through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Ceilings have been scattering at KTOP and KFOE early this
period, and VFR should prevail at all sites by mid afternoon.
There is another signal for patchy fog development tonight and
early Friday morning. Confidence is high enough to at least introduce
reduced visibilities for a few hours early Friday. Timing and
extent of fog may still need to be tweaked in the 00Z period.
VFR then returns with light winds shifting slightly from a south
to a southeasterly direction.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Teefey