Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 272106

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
106 PM AKDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The 12z models suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread in both the short range and the mid range remains very
reasonable. Model spread increases rapidly in the long range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a long wave trough currently centered over
central Alaska will slowly move to the west to be centered over
western Alaska Wednesday. A ridge builds over western Canada today
and Tuesday and will push further west over the Yukon by
Wednesday. Southerly flow strengthens at 500 hpa over a large
portion of central and eastern Alaska with southeast flow at 700
hpa increasing in strength over the same areas. Strong easterly
winds continue below 850 hpa down to the surface over the same
areas and will continue through Tuesday morning. Winter Weather
Advisories for blowing snow over highway summits continue for
much of the central and eastern interior north of Fairbanks for
tonight and into Tuesday morning as the gradient continues to
increase. Wind gusts in the 20s and 30s are noted over highway
summits over the interior this afternoon with gusts to around 40
mph expected tonight before the gradient relaxes Tuesday

Moisture continues to move north and northwest into the eastern
and central interior and will increase tonight as a shortwave
rotating around the upper level low over south central Alaska
moves over the area. Light snow or flurries are expected over a
large area of the central and eastern interior beginning tonight
and continuing into Tuesday. Generally less than one inch is
expected. A stronger shortwave moves over the southern interior
Wednesday night and Thursday with another round of snow expected
over the central and western interior. 1 to 2 inches of snow is
possible with this system.

Low ceilings, fog and flurries are noted over portions of the
north slope with similar conditions expected to continue tonight
and Tuesday.


Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.


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