Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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991
FXAK69 PAFG 221325
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
525 AM AKDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 990 MB LOW WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST. A
WEAK WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LIES OVER BARROW EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY...
REACHING DEMARCATION POINT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN ANY EVENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL SPREAD NORTH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY...WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING
NEAR PRUDHOE BAY AROUND 4PM...THEN MOVING EAST TO CENTER OVER
MACKENZIE BAY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE 968 MB LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
CYCLONICALLY NORTHWEST THEN WEST THEN SOUTH AROUND THE LOW CENTER
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AGAIN
LATER SATURDAY...AND BE 998 MB NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FILLING. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MORE RAPIDLY...THROUGH SAINT PAUL AND
DUTCH HARBOR SATURDAY MORNING AND ONTO THE NORTH BRISTOL BAY COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN A RATHER DIFFUSE FORM...FOLLOWING A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
TO TRACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL BUILD
WESTWARD OVER INTERIOR AND ARCTIC ALASKA...REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
STRENGTH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE
INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST LATER SAT AS THE WEATHER FRONT AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT
DISCUSSED ABOVE APPROACH...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO COOL
SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM THE PANHANDLE TODAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TO BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH ZONE 224 ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE...
WHICH WILL AND DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAYBE INVOLVING ZONE 220 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED QUITE DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR...PROBABLY EXTRAORDINARILY SO ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VARIOUS WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND WATCHES CONTINUE TODAY...
MAINLY DUE TO SNOW MELT. MOST OF THEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235.
&&

$$

DJH MAY 15



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