Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 311426
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
626 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THAT GFS RUN CLEARLY CLEANED UP ON THE ECMF. BASED ON
SATELLITE PICS AS WELL AS TRACK RECORD...WE PREFER THE GFS ON THE
DETAILS THIS MORNING. IN PARTICULAR...IT IS SHOWING THE DOUBLE
CENTER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY...WHILE THE ECMF TAKES
MUCH LONGER TO DEVELOP MULTIPLE CENTERS. DESPITE THIS...THE GFS
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THAN
THE ECMF DOES...THOUGH WE ARE GETTING SOMEWHAT BETTER INDICATIONS
OF SNOW OVER ZONES 214 AND 215 NOW. WINDS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF
INTEREST HERE...AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARNING LEVEL
WINDS...EXCEPT FOR GALES IN MARINE AREAS 200 AND 210.

DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...WE STILL
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WIND THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT ALOFT.

WINDS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST COMING ONSHORE. THERE WILL PRESUMABLY
BE MORE FOG THERE IN CONSEQUENCE...BUT NOT YET ANYWAY.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

$$

DJH OCT 14



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