Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 261355

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
555 AM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Surface analysis and satellite imagery show a weak
ridge along the coast with another shortwave pushing precip into
the panhandle. Weak low pressure over the NW gulf associated with
this feature will dissipate this morning allowing winds along the
N gulf coastal zones to diminish. Models remain in good agreement
with the parent low persisting S of Kodiak through the period with
another impulse ejecting NE from it overnight into Wed. Rainfall
totals over the north gulf coast and northern panhandle today
will generally be around 0.50-0.66 inches, with 0.33-0.50 inches
expected over the southern panhandle. Moderate to fresh winds over
the northern channels early this morning will ease through the
morning, then rise again this afternoon as the next system moves
into the W gulf. Models remain in good agreement and current
forecast represented this well and minimal changes made mainly to
localized winds/trends over the inner channels.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday to Monday / The mid to long range forecast
solution has not altered significantly with the newer model
solutions. Onshore flow pattern with continued precipitation
through the week continued... with better chances through Friday
and a slight improvement after that. The heaviest rains from the
short waves spreading across southeast Alaska, are expected to
taper off after Thursday. Until the rains do taper off the current
hydrological watch on the rivers and streams will continue.

The vertically stacked low over the northern gulf will slowly
weaken into the later half of the week and then the upper level
support will be maneuvered southeast past the panhandle and over
Haida Gwaii Friday night. This will drag the shower activity past
the panhandle. A narrow upper level ridge is projected to move to
over the northeast gulf coast for the weekend that will try to
taper off the rain for the forecast area. Will continue to monitorand
updated the forecast if this pattern continues to hold for drier
with the potential for breaks of the sun. Forecast confidence is
above average until the weekend and then lowers to average.


.HYDROLOGY...Area rivers and streams have fallen below bankfull as
of early this morning, however, another round of rainfall across
the region today will result in rises again. This rainfall will
cause the Taiya River near Skagway to reach bankfull this
afternoon, potentially rise to minor flood by Wed morning and
approach moderate flood stage by Thu. Additional streams and
rivers across the central and northern panhandle will also
experiencerises, but are expected to remain within bankfull.
Will continue to monitor precip/river trends for other potential
hydrologic impacts.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ043-051-052.



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