Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXAK67 PAJK 192340
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A 976 MB LOW ABOUT
200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING EAST ACROSS DIXON ENTRANCE THEN SOUTHEAST OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. BETWEEN THE LOW AND PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA
IN YUKON...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AND PRODUCES
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE...ADVANCED MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PROPAGATE FROM BARANOF
ISLAND TO JUNEAU AREA SOUTH TO WRANGELL...KLAWOCK AND KETCHIKAN
AREAS. NORTHERNMOST AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SOAR UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 976 MB LOW CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE OCCLUDED
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
PRESSURE FIELDS AND BLENDED THE POPS AND QPF FIELDS WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER BARANOF ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING UP TO GLACIER BAY AND
JUNEAU AREAS. THE RAIN BANDS WILL THEN SHEAR APART WITH HIGHER
POPS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS
WAITING FOR THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT AS COLD AS LAST
NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS. MID 30S ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AND MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS. EASTER SUNDAY DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
SEASONAL RANGE OF UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.



&&

.LONG TERM...THE LOW OVER THE GULF ALASKA THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING
ABOUT GULF WILL TAKE ONE LAST CIRCLE MOVING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST TO BE ABOUT 300 NM SW OF
HAIDA GWAII MONDAY EVENING. THE SECOND WAVE THAT WAS TRAILING THE
MAIN FRONTAL BAND WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER COAST
OF THE PANHANDLE AND FOLLOWING THE WESTERN TURN THE PREVIOUS ONES
HAD. THE FRONT IS FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND WILL LEAVE SHOWERS AS THE WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO THE MONDAY UNTIL THEY FALL APART.

MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE FROM MON TO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE
ANY OF THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND THEN LEAVE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREAS THAT GET SOME ADEQUATE
RAIN FALL AND THE BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY FOG. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW BUT SOMETHING WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON.

MEANWHILE THE STRONG LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL THE FRONTAL BAND MOVE EAST. THE NORTHERN
PORTION LOOKS TO BE JUST SHEARING OUT AS THE TRIPLE POINT
CONTINUES EASTWARD. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT COULD BE TRYING TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...WITH NO
STRONG GRADIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS THOUGH LOCAL EFFECTS
WILL BOOSTING SOME VALUES AROUND THE PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.




.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033>035.

&&

$$

AHN/BEZENEK






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