Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 241259
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
459 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOWS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN YUKON WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEING
PINCHED OVER THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTING E AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INLAND NEAR HAIDA GWAII.

 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD E THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TRANSITIONING TO
STRATIFORM PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST AND INNER CHANNELS
AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LOW.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BLOCKY PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE GULF INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. USED A 00Z ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR FRI-SAT...THEN BLENDED
THE ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT NIGHT...WILL HAVE FRONT STALLED OVER THE ERN GULF
WITH A COUPLE OF LOWS MOVING N ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE AREA WET DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND SCA LEVELS
OVER THE FAR ERN GULF DURING THIS TIME. THE WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE RANGES ON THE SMALL SIDE...AND DID TIGHTEN UP THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR FRI-SAT. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50S DURING THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINING TIME FRAME...STILL LOOKS WET FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE GULF.
MODELS HINT AT A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE TROF LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THAT
TIME RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.


$$

BC/RWT






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