Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 110134
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
434 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY WITH
BANDS OF MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
PLUS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO DIXON ENTRANCE AS OF THIS
WRITING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION REVEALS A
CLUSTER OF CELLS AROUND 50N 140W AS OF 3 PM WHICH IF HOLDING
TOGETHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. SNOW HAS ALSO KEPT UP
FOR THE HAINES AREA TODAY BUT WET STUFF.

FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE SPEED OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS AND
DEVILISH DETAILS IN THEM. THE 10/12Z NAM WAS CONSISTENT WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ON THE ONE OF THE SERIES OF FRONTS COMING UP WITH A GALE
FORCE LOW THAT BACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. 10/18Z NAM QPF
FORECASTS A BREAK THU AFTERNOON BUT KEPT CHANCES IN THERE CAUSE ALL
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE SO WET WITH NO COLD DRY AIR IN SIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING IS POOR.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS RANGED FROM VFR TO LIFR TODAY WITH PROBLEMS DUE TO
TRAPPED MOISTURE OR PERSISTENT PRECIP. HELD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR
TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE LLWS WITH THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE THE
FRONT IN DIXON ENTRANCE. MODELS FORECASTED A LOW LEVEL JET FOR THE
HINT OF LLWS. POOR CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SO KEEP CHECKING FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.MARINE...RESPECTED THE WAVE COMING UP ALONG 140W TONIGHT SO MOVED
GALE FORCE SE WIND ALONG WITH IT. SEAS ARE BIG AND REMAIN BIG.
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION THU AFTERNOON DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON THE GALES.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH THE
GULF REMAINING ACTIVE WITH ONE WEATHER SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER GULF NOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING NW OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION IS BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE NAM/GFS/GEM WITH THE EC
WEAKENING THE LOW MUCH FASTER. THERE IS A BUNCH OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THAT WILL TRACK NORTH
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY SUSTAIN THE STRONG CONVECTION INTO THE GULF AND POSSIBLE
COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD GALES OVER THE GULF WITH SOME
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT AS
THE SLIDES TO THE WEST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE E/S FROM N/S
SO THERE WILL BE DECREASE IN THE NORTHERN WINDS AND SWITCH TO A
LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE CAT PRECIP WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS AREA ON THE MILD SIDE SO FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP WILL
BE IN A LIQUID FORM BUT THE HIGHWAYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR INTERIOR
VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME SNOW.

INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THAT SOME COOLER AIR
MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-033>036-053.
&&

$$

JC/ABJ

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