Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282310
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. ADDED THUNDER TO
WESTER PIEDMONT AREA NEXT FEW HRS AS TSTMS TRACK EAST IVOF I64.
KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES IN THE WATCH BOX FOR THE PULSE TYP
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND PAST HALF HOUR BUT
DON`T THINK SEVERE THREAT IS OVER JUST YET GIVEN THE CELLS
MARCHING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE ZONES
BASED OFF CURRENT VSBYS. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR THE
WATERS LATER ON.

PVS DSCN:
WW119 ISSUED FOR OUR SW TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE
NC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58 AND WEST OF A JACKSON NC TO
EMPORIA VA LINE UNTIL 11PM. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...
THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES
NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&


.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...BMD/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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