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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020359
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1059 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER
THIS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VERIFY TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS...EARLIER RUNS
HAD BEEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES THIS EVENING WHILE IN REALITY TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO
SHOW TEMPS NEARLY STEADY TO RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR DEVELOPING DENSE FOG IN LIGHT SW FLOW OVER WET GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1/2SM. UPSTREAM OBS IN NC SHOW MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS IN THE
1/2SM TO 1SM RANGE. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS
REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A
SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO
RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING
DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK
THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDR SHOWED PCPN (MAINLY -RA) MOVNG THRU EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC AND
OVR CNTRL VA PIEDMONT ENE INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR. EXPECT MAINLY
IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES INTO EARLY MON MORNG
(07Z-10Z) AS WINDS TURN TO THE SW 3 TO 9 KT. -DZ POSSIBLE ALSO.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACRS THE REGION AND OFF THE CST DURING
MON MORNG...WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. HI PRES BLDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER MON MORNG INTO MON NGT...WITH NORTHERLY FLO USHERING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW
AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ