Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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089
FXUS61 KAKQ 210223
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
923 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Tuesday.
Weak low pressure moves northeast along the coast Tuesday night
ahead of a cold front that pushes offshore Wednesday morning. High
pressure builds back into the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Sfc hi pres has moved to near the VA/NC coasts this eve...and
will remain there through the night. Combo light SSW winds and
SCT-BKN CI will limit temp fall the rest of the night. Lows
inland 30-35F...u30s-around 40F at the coast in SE VA-NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure pushes farther offshore Tuesday with a trof developing
along the sern coast. Moisture increases along this feature but
support for any rainfall stays south of the local area through 00Z
Wed. Tues starts off sunny with clouds increasing S-N throughout the
day. Milder with highs 60-65.

A quick moving nrn stream wave lifts into the northeast Wed
with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12Z Wed.
Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift N-NE along the Mid-
Atlantic coast Wed. Latest models are somewhat faster with the
fropa which pushes the moisture off the coast btwn 12Z- 15Z.
Where the models differ is just how far west any measurable pcpn
gets. GFS is closer to the coast with the NAM/SREF favoring some
light pcpn as far west as the Piedmont. Best lift progged east
of I95 between 06Z-12Z Wed. Thus, expect a period of showers
mainly along and east of I-95 after midnight...quickly shifting
toward the coast around 12Z then offshore by 15Z Wed. Kept likely
pops east of I95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows Tues
night in the 40s to lwr 50s SE. Little QPF west of I95, .10 to
.25 east.

Given a quicker fropa, tsctns show drying west to east Wed aftrn as
high pressure builds in from the west. Lagging CAA and sun should
allow temps to rise into the mid 50s - lwr 60s.

Mstly clr / pt cldy Wed night. Lows upr 20s - mid 30s except upr 30s
sern coastal areas. Cool / dry Thurs. Highs 45-50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore Fri. This keeps any moisture coming
off of Fla south of the local area. Lows Thurs nite in the upr 20s-
upr 30s. Highs Fri in the low-mid 50s. Lows Fri nite in the 30s.

The next front pushes across the region Sat. It will be moisture
starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs Sat in the
mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry / colder early next week as Canadian high
prs returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows in the mid 20s-mid
30s. Highs Mon in the low-mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high
pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. SSW winds blo 15 kt.
A weak trough of low pressure develops along the Carolina coast
Wed with sct shwrs possible mainly east of I95 Tues night into
early Wed. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions are possible
over the terminals during this timeframe.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines or SCA conditions expected tonight thru Tue night.
Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered over the
Carolinas. The high will slide off the coast and out to sea
tonight and Tue. Expect winds to become SW or S this evening
thru Tue, with speeds mainly 5 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over nrn two
coastal waters on Tue). Meanwhile, a canadian low pressure
system will drag a cold front into the OH Valley on Tue,
approaching the waters late Tue night. Also, low pressure will
develop off the SE coast Tue night, then lifts NE just off the
Mid Atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn.

Next chance for SCA conditions should be midday Wed into Thu
morning, as cool high pressure builds into the region fm the
WNW. High pressure will generally be over the area, then slide
offshore Thu aftn thru Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated daily climate for Richmond due to erroneous high temp
this afternoon.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive
Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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