


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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017 FXUS61 KAKQ 151118 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 718 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern continues through midweek with scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible each day before the heat rebuilds Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Flood Watch in effect through midnight tonight for all central, eastern, and southeastern Virginia counties/independent cities along with southeast Maryland. - Heavy rainfall will bring a flash flooding threat, especially for vulnerable areas that have received significant rain the past several days. GOES water vapor channels depict a slow moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak front is co- located at the surface with subtropical high pressure centered off the Southeast coast. Showers/tstms with heavy rain linger early this morning in vicinity of the boundary. Showers/tstms should diminish over the next few hours with the early morning diurnal cycle. However, scattered showers/tstms will redevelop by this afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough bogs down and the surface front stalls over the area. PW values in vicinity of the front remain >2" (130-140%) of normal and the shear profile will be weak resulting in slow moving and occasionally back- building tstms. Also, the slight risk ERO has been extended and includes all the local VA and SE MD counties/independent cities. Given this the flood watch has been extended in area and time and runs through midnight tonight (begins at noon for the new eastern segment, which includes eastern/SE VA and SE MD). Least confidence is over the VA Eastern Shore but opted to not get too specific with the watch. NE NC is not included at this time as there is less of a signal there in the 15/00z HREF. A localized wet microburst threat will accompany any tstms, but the threat is not high enough to warrant a marginal risk area. Showers/tstms should diminish later tonight. Seasonally hot and humid today with highs in the mid 80s to near 90F, and warm and humid tonight with lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area. A similar pattern continues into Wednesday (shifted slightly N) with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PW values remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists. Given a northward shift in the synoptic pattern, the marginal risk ERO is N of the local area, but a localized flood threat will continue for vulnerable areas. Continued seasonally hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible. Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northward into the area through the weekend. With this change in the pattern, convective coverage will likely diminish some, but due to the time of year and weaker ridge, have maintained scattered PoPs for the time being. With the decrease in cloud cover and storms expected combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower 90s Thursday through Saturday, with Friday possibly seeing mid 90s across the area. At the same time, there will be an uptick in low level moisture and dew points will increase into the mid to upper 70s. Heat indices, especially on Friday, could eclipse 105F+ so Heat Advisories may be required. On Saturday, temperatures may not be quite as warm, so Heat Advisories may be necessary only in the southern portion of our area. Continued seasonally hot and humid Sunday/Monday with some dampening of the upper ridge. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 715 AM EDT Tuesday... SHRA/TSRA are generally on the downward trend this morning, though some lingering activity is impacting PHF/ORF as of this writing, with ECG potentially getting a SHRA within the next couple of hours as well. Patchy IFR is also possible through 14Z. This batch of RA will diminish by mid-morning, leaving SCT- BKN030-050 skies into the afternoon. Another chance of scattered SHRA/TSRA develops after 18-19Z, though confidence in location/coverage of activity is low. Included PROB30 groups for TSRA at all terminals except ECG for now. Activity should wind down into the overnight hours, though some early morning fog/stratus will be possible. Winds remain light out of the south/southwest. Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to recur Wed. Shower/storm coverage is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week. && .MARINE... As of 259 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. High pressure offshore continues to lead to prevailing southerly flow over most of the waters. However, winds in some areas have turned to the N this morning due to convective influences. The expectation is for winds to again become SW everywhere around sunrise through the late morning period. As sea breezes develop this afternoon, expect the wind direction to turn S-SE at 10-15 kt. The pressure gradient sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure tracks well N of the area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt SW winds are expected through Wednesday, with less of a sea breeze influence. A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are appearing increasingly plausible Wednesday night and local wind probabilities are 80-90% for 18 kt sustained winds across most of the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. Will hold off on issuing headlines given this is within the fourth period, but SCAs will likely eventually be needed sometime within the 00z-12z period Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Wednesday night, with 2-3 ft (locally 4 ft) in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds decrease some during the day Thursday, especially over the open water, but will tend to remain gusty to around 20 kt on nearshore portions of the waters (including on the rivers and Currituck Sound). Another period of elevated SW flow (and SCAs) is possible Thursday night/Friday morning, but confidence is lower. By later Friday into the weekend, benign conditions return with high pressure settling near the area. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021-022. Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for MDZ023>025. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075>083-087-088-509>522. Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for VAZ084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB LONG TERM...AJZ/NB AVIATION...AJZ/JKP MARINE...SW