Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM



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