Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR


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