Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 060542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG


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