Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 262007
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Strong high pressure will remain centered over the southeast
United States through the end of the week. A weak frontal boundary
will move south into the local area tonight, then lingers across
the region through Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
It`s been another hot and humid day across the area with high
pressure centered over the Southeast. A weak frontal boundary
remains situated just north of the local area but will slowly push
south through the evening/overnight hours. Starting to get a
little more organization with tstms this afternoon but storms are
primarily pulse in nature with localized heavy rain. Weak
perturbations in the flow aloft along with the weak boundary
dropping south will allow for chances for tstms into the late
evening (slight chc overnight). The threat of severe wx will be
low (marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours
will be possible in the strongest tstms. Warm and humid tonight
with lows in the mid/upr 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Westerly flow aloft will allow the aforementioned boundary to
stall over the local area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong high
pressure remains centered over the area through Friday. There will
continue to be enough instability, moisture, and weak forcing to
support scattered tstms Wed/Thu aftn/eve (30-40% PoPs) across the
area. Again, the threat of severe wx will remain low given weak
shear profiles but locally heavy rain is possible with PWs in
excess of 2". Given the increased cloud cover Wed and slightly
lower/cooler low-level thicknesses and H85 temps across the
north/west, should be able to shrink the size of the Heat
Advisory headline to SE VA and NE NC. (Similar headline may be
necessary Thu). Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a partly
Latest model data suggests the weak front lifts back north as a
warm front Thurs night to near the mason-dixon line on Friday in
response to a series of weak disturbances progged to track east
along it. Lows Thu night in the mid/upr 70s. Data also shows a
lingering sfc trough in lee of mountains. Given the available low
level moisture, expect enough instability across the region to
carry chc pops across the northern two-thirds of the area Fri aftn
(slight chc far south). Warm and humid again with highs in the low
to mid 90s (possible heat advisory SE areas).
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes to the going forecast for the extended. The
westerlies generally remain north of the area through early next
week with the frontal boundary remaining just north of the area or
even over the region through the period. This frontal boundary
will allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms through the
entire forecast period...with slightly higher POPs Sunday into
Sunday night as heights lower across the forecast area as a weak
upper trough passes north of the region. Will go with a dry
forecast on Tuesday as the GFS and ECMWF finally suggest the
surface front may pass south of the area as the upper trough
deepens over New England and the Mid-Atlantic.
It will continue warm and humid through the extended with highs
each day in the low-mid 90s with dew points still in the low-mid
70s. Probably not quite as warm as previous days...but still
uncomfortable. Perhaps a little cooler and slightly drier on
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest visible satellite imagery depicts cumulus developing across
the local area, with seabreeze boundaries visible along the coast.
Expect isolated to scattered convection to develop through mid
afternoon, becoming more organized with better coverage late
today into the evening. Due to the scattered nature of the storms,
it will be difficult to nail down timing to put in TAFS. Best
chances this afternoon will be along the seabreeze boundary for
KORF and KPHF. High resolution guidance is trending toward late
afternoon into the evening hours for KRIC. Lower chances KSBY and
KECG. Main threats will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Otherwise, expect a scattered to broken deck around 5k ft AGL.
Surface winds generally at or below 10 knots.
Outlook...Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of the
local area through the rest of the week...with scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day through
Generally quiet marine conditions expected through next week with
a weak front remaining just north of the area and high pressure
well offshore. Winds will generally stay less than 15 kt and seas
over the coastal waters 2 ft or less. With the chances for storms
each day...cannot rule out stronger winds in and near storms but
otherwise quiet through the weekend and even into early next week.
No records have been set so far during the current heat spell.
Records Tue (7/26)
* RIC: 100 (1940)
* ORF: 100 (1940)
* SBY: 102 (1940)
* ECG: 97 (1949)
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ012>017-
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ079>082-