Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 190834
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
434 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area this morning and move
south into North Carolina by this afternoon. High pressure
builds in tonight through early next week. The next cold front
will affect the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis indicating a sfc cold front pushing through the
CWA, earlier convection had been well out ahead of the front and
has now diminished with just a few lingering showers over mainly
eastern sections of the CWA. Expect these showers to continue to
weaken/diminish through the next few hrs with genly dry
conditions all areas by sunrise or shortly thereafter. The front
will stall along the SE VA/NE NC coast late this morning into
the aftn as upper level shortwave energy currently situated over
the mid-MS/lower OH Valley tracks east. The combination of the
stalled front and deeper moisture along and to the S/SE suggests
that at least sacttered showers/tstms will redevelop this aftn
over the SE. Elsewhere will probably see some increase in clouds
for a few hrs this aftn but airmass will be drier so will keep
PoPs silent at less than 15%. Highs today will be slightly
cooler than Fri, but still quite warm averaging in the upper 80s
near the coast and around 90F inland. Dew pts will be noticeably
lower across inland areas, falling into the 60s this aftn, but
will remain in the 70s across the SE (perhaps even upper 70s
along Albemarle Sound). Heat indices may approach 105 F for NE
NC but will not be as high as on fri and will refrain from
issuing a heat adsy. Some clouds may persist this evening and
some of the high res guidance as well as the GFS depicts light
QPF over the eastern shore from 00-06Z. Added 20% PoPs to
account for this and raised cloud cover a bit through 06Z,
followed by clearing conditions as sfc high pressure builds in
from the NW overnight. Lows in the upper 60s along/west of I-95
to 70-75 F farther east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over the area Sunday and lingers just off
the coast through Monday. Went with a dry forecast for Sunday
with highs in the mid-upper 80s along the coast and over the
north to around 90 F inland over the central and south.

As the high shifts off the coast on Mon, expect temperatures to
rise slightly, with highs mainly upper 80s to lower 90s. Will
have a 20% PoP for aftn tstms over the Piedmont. Becoming a
little more humid Mon night/Tue as the highs shifts farther off
the coast with 20-30% PoPs by Tue aftn as a weak thermal trough
develops east of the Mtns. Highs into the lower 90s most areas
away from the water Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is expected to track through the area on
Wed...exiting the coast Thu morning. Conditions will become
increasingly more humid ahead of the front. The frontal passage
Wed/Wed night will provide a better focus for more organized
thunderstorms to occur. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE
VA/NE NC on Thu. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds
across the Midwest with dry conditions anticipated for the Mid
Atlantic Region Thu night-Fri night.

Highs Wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s
beaches. Highs Thu/Fri low-mid 80s; mid-upper 70s beaches. Lows
Tue night generally 70-75F. Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to
70-75F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering showers across the region, with embedded tstms over
the far SE through 08Z. Otherwise, becoming dry thereafter but
with potential for MVFR vsbys/cigs through 12-15Z. Mainly VFR
conditions for the rest of the day though possible ISOLD tstms
in the afternoon SE VA-NE NC invof lingering weakening frontal
boundary (best chance at ECG). VFR Sat night-Mon as high
pressure builds back into the region. Some patchy early morning
fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term today thru Sun night. A cold
front will cross the waters this morning, and then stall near
the Mid Atlc coast thru Sat night. WSW winds 5 to 15 kt early
this morning, will become NW or N later this morning thru
midday, then become SE or S early this evening. SSW winds 5 to
10 kt tonight, will become WNW by early Sun morning.

High pressure will build over the area during Sun, then slides
offshr and out to sea for Mon and Tue. NNW winds 5 to 10 kt
becoming NE or E during Sun, then ESE Sun night. ESE 5 to 10 kt
becoming SE or S during Mon. S winds 5 to 15 kt on Tue, then SSW
10 to 20 kt Tue night, as a cold front approaches fm the WNW.
The cold front will drop acrs the waters Wed into Wed night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ESS/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...TMG


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