Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230529
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1229 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

No major changes for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Issued a Frost Advisory for western and portions of central North
Dakota for tonight into Tuesday morning. Satellite trends through
0215 UTC favor clearing skies generally west of US Highway 83.
With weak winds near the surface ridge axis across eastern Montana
and evening dewpoints in the 30s, favored the lowest edge of
forecast guidance for overnight lows tonight with good radiational
cooling. Widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected, if
not cooler, generally west of US Highway 83. To the east, cloud
cover and stronger winds should prevent frost.

UPDATE Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Quick update to increase PoPs through 01 UTC across south central
North Dakota and into the James River Valley per radar trends in a
High PoP/Low QPF scenario.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Diurnal convection peaking out this afternoon with the upper level
trough moving through. Just enough cape for a few thunderstorms
southwest this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the
convection will diminish quickly after sunset with skies slowly
clearing tonight from the west. Tonight`s lows will be in the
upper 30s southwest to the upper 40s east. Will not mention frost
as the minimum temperatures should be just above the frost
threshold.

On Tuesday the upper low will exit the region with rising heights
at h500 suppressing convection most of the area. Tuesday will be
partly sunny west with lingering clouds and a few showers across
the James River Valley. Highs Tuesday upper 50s James River
Valley to the upper 60s northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The extended will generally remain below normal for temperatures
with limited precipitation. Initially the global models track an
upper low across southern Canada pulling a cold front through
western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will
form along the cold front. Cape is limited but zero to 6 km shear
sufficient to support a few thunderstorms along the front.

There will be lingering showers across the north and east
Thursday. Friday through Memorial Day will see spotty showers but
not anything widespread. Highs through the weekend into Memorial
Day period mostly in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

MVFR cigs will affect primarily the James River Valley region
through early afternoon before improving to VFR. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS



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