Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 291805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
105 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Made some small adjustments to pops based on latest iterations of
the HRRR, which is still keeping isolated showers across portions
of central ND this afternoon. HRRR and RAP soundings support some
shower activity. As you get near the Canadian border, CAPE does
increase and an isolated thunderstorm can not be rule out, but at
this time will not include thunder. We raised temperatures too
across parts of the forecast area.

UPDATE Issued at 953 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Will let the dense fog advisory expire at 10 AM. There are still
some areas of dense fog but latest satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate improving conditions and expect this to
continue through the morning.

Last couple iterations of the HRRR indicate showers developing
along a convergence zone over central ND. With a vort lobe
expected to track across this area today, decided to add at least
a mention of showers over the south central this afternoon. Used
a time lagged HRRR to populate afternoon pops. Populated latest
sensible weather observations and interpolated to late morning

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Generally weak flow at h500 resulting in weak ventilation and
another morning of foggy conditions across western and portions of
central North Dakota. Fog is more widespread and dense across teh
northwest where teh current dense fog advisory remains in effect
until 10 am CDT. Most of the rain has diminished to a small area
north central. Current forecast looks good.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Dense fog is once again an issue across portions of the area.
Subsidence aloft behind a departing wave, ample low-level
moisture and weak surface flow is producing dense fog across
northwest North Dakota. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
this area through 10 AM.

Most of the area should remain dry today, with the exception of
far north central North Dakota where there is a chance of rain as
another wave is expected to move through this afternoon.

Otherwise...a warm day is expected with readings in the mid 60s
for most locations that have little to no snow remaining.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

An active pattern continues into the long term part of the
forecast. However, with a split flow pattern the majority of the
energy either moves north of the forecast area or well to our
south. We are expecting an upper level trough to traverse the area
late Thursday into early Saturday. This is expected to produce
scattered showers with generally light amounts. Precipitation may
fall as a mix of rain and snow Friday night into Saturday morning
across the northwest and north central. Another system moves into
the plains early to mid week, next week. There is still a lot of
model uncertainty with this system and will it will need to be
watched. But at this time a southern track is favored. Once this
system passes by, upper level ridging builds over the region with
a warm- up towards the end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Fog has dissipated across the forecast area just in time for the
18 UTC TAF issuance. Expect VFR conditions today with ceilings
generally 4-6 thousand feet. Did include a VCSH at KBIS and KMOT
this afternoon. Southerly flow does shift southwest at KDIK and
KISN this afternoon, but then shift back south tonight. South to
southeast flow at remaining TAF sites. Could be some patchy fog
again Thursday morning but with an increasing surface gradient
will hold off on adding fog in any particular TAF at this time.




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