Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 302323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
623 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

At 6 pm CDT a surface low pressure area across eastern Montana
will remain nearly stationary through saturday evening. The CAM
models all have the showers across central North Dakota
diminishing this evening leaving North Dakota in a region of dry
weather by Saturday. Temperatures will be mild for this time of
year with lows tonight in the 40s to around 50. Current forecast
looks ok.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The main focus for the short term is rain showers this afternoon
and evening.

A fast moving upper level short wave has led to scattered showers
across western North Dakota this afternoon. This area of showers
is expected to push off to the northeast this evening as the wave
exits the region. Only scattered, light amounts of precipitation
is expected tonight.

Saturday, warm air advection and plenty of sunshine will allow
temperatures to climb into the 70s across the region. A persistent
tight pressure gradient will keep southeasterly winds in the 20
mph range for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Saturday night into Sunday begins a rather pronounced change in
the weather.

A deep West Coast trough will propagate across the Northern Plains
late this weekend into early next week. The 12 UTC models are in
fairly good agreement about bringing the center of the surface low
across the western Dakotas. This would keep the bulk of the
heaviest rainfall amounts further north into Canada and west into
Montana as a good portion of North Dakota may end up in the dry
slot. However, this low will remain nearby for several days and
likely bring widespread rain showers and thunderstorms to the area
as wrap around moisture moves through. In addition to
precipitation being likely, windy conditions can also be expected
with this system as the low really wraps up and deepens over the
area. While thunderstorms will become less and less common as we
get deeper into fall, this system will likely have enough dynamic
forcing and instability to produce some thunderstorms Sunday and

As the low moves out by midweek, cold air will move in. Highs will
likely fall into the 50s with overnight lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

An area of surface low pressure will remain in Montana through
Saturday. VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. Some wind
shear possible across the south central (KBIS) this evening with
winds at 2 thousand agl 17035kts between 00z and 04z.




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