Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 181128
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The wintry mix will taper off during the day today, with most
precipitation limited to the mountains by tonight. Low pressure
south of Long Island early this morning will move slowly eastward
south of New England today. A ridge of high pressure will slowly
build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the
region through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 617 AM EST Wednesday...Forecast tracking along so far so
good. Will send updated grids/text products right at 12z to
expire the advisory. Otherwise precipitation continuing across
the forecast area. Mostly snow from northern Adirondacks into Lake
Champlain Valley eastward, with some rain in St. Lawrence County
and freezing rain at Massena in cold NE wind and 28 degree
surface temp. Boundar layer winds have turned westerly, and
Froude number less than 0.5 based on local study indicate
blocked flow and snow to continue on western slopes of Green
Mountains for at least next several hours.

Snow winding down overnight, radar coverage has definitely
changed from organized band of snow when the mid- shift started
to more of a spotty coverage. Weak surface low moving up the St.
Lawrence Valley is starting to fizzle out as 500 mb shortwave
trough reaches the coast and spins up surface low south of Long
Island. Later today the forecast area will be under shortwave
ridging from about 18z to 06z with little organized ascent and
only orographic lift continuing precip chances. A second 500 mb
shortwave trough will move across the region 06-12z Thursday to
continue precip chances mainly in northern higher terrain.

Precip type: Temperatures a few degrees either side of
freezing, although wetbulb effects making precip type mostly
snow. Temperatures today will warm above freezing most
everywhere, with wintry mix of sleet/snow/rain. Freezing rain
and any significant icing less of a threat from here on out with
warming temperatures. Freezing drizzle a possibility mainly
southern areas of the forecast area this afternoon through this
evening as daytime heating cools off and thermal profile not
conducive to ice crystals/snow growth. Further north thermal
profile colder and more conducive to snow. Only trace amounts of
icing.

No airmass change with the passage of the low, and temperatures
will see little diurnal change from highs in the 30s and lows
25 to 30. Saturated below about 700 mb and overcast skies for
the duration of the near term period.

Although heaviest wintry precip has ended will continue
headlines for the time being as snow continues and will affect
the morning drive. Northern NY advisory expires 7 am and will
evaluate with next update. Rest of the area will continue to 1
pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Generally looking at improving
conditions for the Thursday/Friday timeframe with some lingering
upslope light rain/snow showers focused over the high terrain
diminishing Thursday, and strong 500mb ridging building in aloft
for Thursday night and Friday, offering dry conditions to end
the work week. Even though strong subsidence will be shifting in
with the ridge, forecast soundings are indicating abundant
moisture trapped beneath a low-level inversion holding tough
through much of Friday and potentially longer into the weekend.
Thus, have adjusted sky cover to indicate cloudier skies and
subsequently lower temperatures slightly with highs both days in
the mid/upper 30s and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to low
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned upper ridge and
surface high pressure continue to dominate the North Country`s
weather going into the weekend with decaying shortwave energy
shifting out of the central CONUS into the Ohio Valley falling
apart as it hits the ridge and providing nothing more than some
clouds. Subsidence aloft looks to finally win out over low level
moisture as well so looking at partly cloudy skies through the
weekend along with above normal temperatures in the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Next potential system looks to impact the region early next
week as a shortwave trough pulling east out of the lee of the
Rockies Saturday night develops a strong surface low over the
southeast states Sunday, then tracks northeastward along the
east coast during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Ptype could be
an issue with this one with blocking high pressure in place over
Nova Scotia keeping low levels close to or below freezing,
especially east of the Green Mountains Monday evening, but
eventually a strong low/mid level jet pushes a warm front
through the region Monday night transitioning precip to rain. At
least that`s what the models are telling us now, but there`s
lots of time for things to change so stay tuned. For certain
though, temperatures look to remain very mild by late- January
standards with highs continuing to push into the 40s, and lows
in the 20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 02Z Thursday...MVFR ceilings most locations except LIFR
KMSS. Low level moisture will remain locked in the area during
the TAF period and see little improvement in ceiling heights.
Mainly snow to continue over most of the area except KMSS where
northeast flow locks in upper 20s temperatures and light
freezing rain/mist. Precipitation to gradually come to an end
this afternoon when upper trough moves out of area.

Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with
KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone
exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though most of the
period with winds 05-15 knots.

12Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR
rain/snow showers.

00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure
will be over the region.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ006>012-017>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ029-
     087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ028-030-031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hanson


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