Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 222026
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
Expect above normal temperatures...on the order of 15 to 25
degrees warmer...to continue right through Saturday. Saturday
will be the warmest day with highs in the 50s to around 60 and
these temperatures could set new record highs. The above normal
temperatures will lead to increased snowmelt and runoff and
increase the potential for ice jams and river flooding.
Widespread rain later Saturday into Saturday night could further
enhance the potential for flooding across parts of the North
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...Satellite trends show the area
should receive a couple more hours of sun before clouds start
increasing across the entire area tonight. Later tonight there
may be some patch fog and have included everywhere during the
overnight hours. Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to mid
40s. Any precipitation overnight will be rather spotty and
generally confined to parts of northern New York.
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...Forecast remains on track for
above normal temperatures...both daytime and nighttime
temperatures. This will lead to ice breakup in the
rivers...especially northeast New York and areas along and north
of Route 2 in Vermont where river ice still prevails. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 40s to upper
50s...but mid 40s to lower 50s on Friday. Either way both days
are still above normal. Upper trough passing north of the area
will keep main forcing north of the border...but we could still
see some light rain showers. Looking at rainfall amounts less
than a tenth of an inch on Thursday. Warm front will be to our
southwest on Friday and will eventually push up into the region
late Friday into Friday and lift north of the border by early
Saturday. Could be some showers with this front...but again not
a lot of precipitation...generally less than two tenths of an
inch. These temperatures should still promote snowmelt/runoff
and we should begin to see 1 to 3 foot rises on rivers late
Thursday into Thursday night...but most of the mainstem rivers
are starting off low and should be able to handle the increase.
Further rises are expected on Friday...but the greatest concern
will come on Saturday when even warmer temperatures and
widespread rain eventually moves in.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...On Saturday we will be in the warm
sector ahead of approaching cold front. Strong southwesterly
return flow will be in place as low pressure system moves from
the Great Lakes region north of our CWA later Saturday and
Saturday night. 850 temps will reach about 10 C on Saturday, max
temps will be in the mid 50s to around 60. Strong cold front
pushes west to east across our forecast area Saturday night.
Have high pops mentioned from 18z Saturday through 06z Sunday.
Moderate rain is expected area wide. Storm total QPF will range
from about half an inch to around an inch. See hydrology section
for ice jam concerns. Strong cold air advection behind cold
front will keep temperatures on Sunday closer to seasonal
normals, mainly 30s across the area. Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon will feature quieter and more seasonable
weather with a ridge of surface high pressure briefly over the
area. By Monday evening a weaker low pressure system will pass
to our south and bring just a chance for some rain and snow
showers. Towards the middle of the week temperatures will warm
back above seasonal normals and a quieter weather pattern
develops. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate a large scale system for
the second half of the work week to impact the north country,
looks very similar to Saturday`s system with rain and then snow.
.AVIATION /20Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18z Thursday...Have continued with mention of BR
overnight at all TAF sites. Surface dewpoints to increase and
winds will decouple...allowing for areas of low clouds and
fog/BR to develop as warm/moist air moves over cold snow pack.
Expecting IFR with LIFR conditions possible...especially given
all the fog/br upstream over the Ohio Valley and MI early Wed
morning. Winds begin to increase toward sunrise on Thursday...so
fog/BR may transition into an IFR stratus deck before lifting.
Have VCSH mentioned for MSS and SLK with some scattered light
rain showers expected overnight.
Outlook 18z Thursday through Monday... Additional fog/BR
possible Thursday Night into Friday...as weak backdoor front
results in a wind shift to the north. Very gusty southerly winds
develop...along with a line of showers with embedded heavier
rainfall for Sat. Localized areas of turbulence and shear
likely...along with MVFR conditions in the heavier showers.
Rain transitions to mountain snow showers with lingering IFR
vis possible at SLK/MPV Sat night into Sunday. MVFR possible
again on Monday with more showers in the area.
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...Temperatures Thursday through
Saturday will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal...both during the
day and into the night. This will continue to support the
breakup of river ice and increase the potential for ice jams.
Rivers with ice still in them are mainly over northeast New York
and the northern third of Vermont...generally north of Route 2.
We will see some light showers Thursday and Friday...but
amounts should not have much of an impact. The above normal
temperatures will contribute to snowmelt/runoff and we should
see noticeable rises Thursday and Friday...1 to 3 foot rises on
Thursday...but rivers are starting off low and should be able to
handle these initial rises. Main concern will likely be on
Saturday and into Saturday night when record/near record high
temperatures further increase snowmelt/runoff and widespread
rain moves in with at least a half to one inch of rain expected.
Sharp rises will likely occur during this period and greatest
ice jam/river flooding potential should be during this time