Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 210752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to dominate and will do so into the
beginning of next week while Hurricane Jose remains southeast of New
England. Quiet and dry conditions are expected through the weekend
with fog in the early morning. Temperatures will continue to be well
above seasonal average temperatures throughout the period with highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s, possibly approaching daily highs for
some areas this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure is still entrenched over
the North Country. This is keeping Hurricane Jose to the
southeast of the CWA with mainly just some higher clouds over
the area today, which should decrease in coverage as the day
progresses. As we have seen the last few nights, areas of fog
and low stratus persist even beyond the favored locations and
will last until a couple hours after sunrise.

925mb temps are slightly cooler today than yesterday, around
17C, coupled another day of northerly winds should again keep
temperatures today in the upper 70s to low 80s in a few valley
locations. Again, still well above seasonable normals. Overnight
tonight will see skies clear before another round of fog and
low stratus sets up again much like the last few nights.

While Friday is the first day of Fall, it will feel more like mid-
summer with another warm, dry and mostly cloudless day as temps once
again will reach the upper 70s and lows 80s in some valley.
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...What is left of Jose drifts even further
southeast of the area as high pressure aloft builds into the
Northeast. Dry weather will continue as a result with plenty of
sunshine expected. Highs will be in the 80s across the entire
area...well above normal for this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge becomes established over the
area Sunday into Monday and the warmest 850 mb temperatures
overspread the region as well. Highs both days will be well into
the 80s and would not be surprised if someone hits 90. This
will be up to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Still no precipitation and plenty of sunshine expected. With dew
points in the 60s it will definitely feel more like summer.
Ridge begins to weaken a bit Tuesday into Wednesday and
eventually an upper trough begins to move toward the area on
Wednesday. This may enhance the potential for some showers on
Wednesday and the southwest flow aloft associated with the upper
trough looks to be sufficient enough to ensure Hurricane Maria
moving up the East Coast remains south and east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Looks like another round of fog/stratus
again tonight as KBTV/KRUT/KSLK are already MFVR/IFR/LIFR
respectively. High level cloud cover from Jose is keeping
KMSS/KMPV VFR right now, but breaks in the cover over the next
couple of hours will see them drop as well. After 14Z all
stations will again be VFR with high level clouds and light
northerly winds at 05-10 knots for the remainder of the day.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Patchy FG.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23
to Mon Sep 25

Day    Burlington     Massena      Montpelier
9/23   87 / 1895      84 / 1964    83 / 1965
9/24   84 / 1961      87 / 2010    83 / 1961
9/25   85 / 1891      90 / 2007    85 / 2007

For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds

90F or higher:  9/16/1939
88F or higher:  9/22/1965
87F or higher:  9/23/1895
86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Neiles/Verasamy
CLIMATE...BTV



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