Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 282355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SKY CONDITIONS VARYING
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE
FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.

500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE,
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL
SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE
MONDAY.

EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED
IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS AT RUT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, BUT WON`T
BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LOCALLY GOVERNED
BY TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL
RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO



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