Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 182341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 724 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING
INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SCHEDULE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE PICS...AND TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING
RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF
QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS
THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NY THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIR TRRN MAY ALSO BE OBSCD BETWEEN 04-09Z. A WIND
SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS INITIALLY S-SE ACROSS VT
AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING
FROPA. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G24KT.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS




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