Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






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