Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 021918
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB LOW CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. BUT
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REMAINING IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT, EXPECT CLOSED LOW TO SHIFT
EAST AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS MADE SOIL AND VEGETATION MOIST WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
DIMINISHES WINDS TO CALM-LIGHT. SO AS LOW CLOUDS EXIT EASTWARD,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO BE THICK AT TIMES. BEFORE BURNING OFF
IN THE MORNING SUNSHINE.

MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 12C-13C WITH UNHINDERED SUNSHINE
YIELDING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. WITH THURSDAY 925MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS, EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S.

SOUTHERLY STREAM 500MB TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS ATTEMPTS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL LINGERING JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE TROUGH
WEAKENING, EXPECT MOSTLY INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE IN TO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST THREAT FOR THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COME MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANGE TAKES PLACE FOR THE
START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH STATIONS AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN JUST NOW BECOMING
VFR. ALL STATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE
VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT WE WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG AND
POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GO MOSTLY CALM
AFTER 03Z. OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR FOG OVER STATUS WHICH
WILL CREATE IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. BY MID TO LATE MORNING THE
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF LEADING VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z-14Z FOR THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT
ALL TERMINALS IN THE 02-13Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/MV



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.