Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 041420

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
920 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

Cloudy skies and lingering morning flurries will give way to partial
sunshine by later today as weak high pressure bridges across
the area. Weakening upper energy will then spread into the
region on Monday with widespread light snow and flurries
expected. The weather remains active as we progress through the
work week with several additional systems bringing renewed
chances of light rain and snow.


As of 915 AM EST Sunday...The forecast remains in good shape.
So have just done some very minor tweaks to the temps as the
diurnal change today will be very small. Other than that, it
continues to be a quiet morning.

Prior discussion...
A rather typical early December weather pattern continues today
with plenty of cloud cover and lingering chances of northern
mountain flurries, at least through early afternoon. Weak high
pressure will be building into the area through time, but modest
northwesterly flow combined with lingering shallow moisture
trapped beneath a persistent synoptic inversion near 850 mb
should be a hindrance to more pronounced clearing. Some
afternoon sun should be realized in the broader valleys toward
mid to late afternoon however as flow trends light. High
temperatures close to blended guidance with values in the upper
20s to lower 30s in mountain communities, and lower to mid 30s
in the broader valleys.

By tonight clouds will thin to partly cloudy in all areas for a
brief time as aforementioned surface high quickly traverses through
the area. This will be short-lived however as thickening clouds
return quickly from the south and west after midnight with approach
of a dampening upper level trough and associated vorticity
advection/warm thermal advection. Models remain generally
consistent with timing of this system with light precipitation
overspreading the southwestern half of the forecast area by
sunrise on Monday. Thermal profiles plenty cold enough such that
p-type will be all of the light snow/flurry variety with a
light accumulation of a dusting to perhaps an inch across these
areas per blended qpf/GEFS plume output. Low temperatures a bit
tricky depending on how much clearing is realized this evening
and degree to which thickening clouds put a halt on readings
later tonight, but a general idea of 15 to 20 in the mountains
and lower to mid 20s in the valleys appears reasonably close at
this point. Winds light.


As of 320 AM EST Sunday...Upper level trof and weak surface low
to cross our forecast area on Monday. Will see widespread light
snow with this feature, though not significant accumulations.
Have indicated high probabilities but low snow totals, generally
two inches or less across the area from early Monday morning
through about midnight Monday night. Later Monday night and
Tuesday will once again feature building heights with surface
and upper level ridging over the North country, dry weather is
expected. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals through the
short term.


As of 330 AM EST Sunday...Tuesday night and Wednesday will
bring the next precipitation to the region with a weak surface
low and shortwave energy crossing the forecast area. Have
mentioned light snow likely. Models still indicating that this
system will remain unphased with northern stream energy over the
northern plains. Still looks like it will be warm enough Wed
afternoon for precipitation to mix with rain in the Champlain
and Saint Lawrence valleys. Precipitation will shut down later
Wednesday afternoon. From Wednesday night onward there is not
very much agreement between GFS and ECMWF leading to a lower
confidence forecast. Large upper level trof will develop over
the central conus and move Eastward through the end of the week.
GFS wants to develop a low off the New England coast on Thursday
while ECMWF brings a low pressure system across our CWA on
Thursday night. By Friday looks like whichever low will be off
the coast of New Foundland and our forecast area will have some
wrap around Northwesterly flow snow showers for Friday through
Saturday. Aforementioned upper level low will bring coldest air
of the season so far, though only slightly below seasonal
normals for max and min temperatures. Drier weather is then
expected for Saturday night and Sunday. Looking even further
out, despite some differences both GFS and ECMWF show a low
pressure system near the Long Island coast by 12z Monday.


.AVIATION /14Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR through 18Z, trending SCT
VFR from 18-00Z. A few flurries here and there through 18Z as
well but no appreciable restrictions to visibility. Higher
terrain will be obscured through 18Z as well. Skies trend SKC by
00Z with thickening/lowering OVC returning after 06Z Monday and
light snows/IFR arriving at KSLK/KMSS late in the forecast
cycle. Winds west to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots, trending
light after 21Z.

12Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...Widespread MVFR/IFR in periods
of light snow/flurries. Precipitation may mix with light rain
at KBTV/KPBG/KRUT after 17Z.

00Z Tuesday through 12Z Tuesday...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR with
scattered flurries.

12Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday...VFR/high pressure.

06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...trending MVFR/IFR in
rain/snow showers.

00Z Thursday onward...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in periods of light




LONG TERM...Neiles
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