Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 011845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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