Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 280901
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
301 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...
Models continue to look pretty consistent, so little in the way of
changes this morning. A weak cold front rotates across northern
Montana this morning will bring zonal flow by this afternoon. The
best energy stays to the north, but some vorticity will rotate
through the area today, with westerly flow taking over the region
from west to east through the day. Models do indicate some CAPE
over the far eastern zones, with a chance of the tail end of cold
front slipping through the eastern zones. Expect thunderstorms
along the departing cold front, but weak shear should limit
strength of storms. Otherwise, slight pops for showers and
isolated thunder across western and central zones this afternoon.
Zonal flow aloft will persist over the region tonight through
Sunday, with some possible short wave ridging possible. A drier
airmass, and downslope flow will lead to warmer temps...as highs
climb through mid 70s. The Pacific trof approaches the area Sunday
night...but does not actually start crossing ther region until
Monday. That said...shear and CAPE do appear to be on the
increase...as does pwats...so have continued with showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night. Gilstad
.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
Main model change for evening runs was the ECMWF coming in line
with the GFS with track and strength of Pacific system Mon-Tue.
Both models now drop down a closed low into the central portion of
the state by mid day Monday and linger the system over the area
through Tuesday. This brings back in a better chance for showers
and thunderstorms, along with a better chance for strong to
isolated severe storms Monday afternoon/evening. Best chance of a
severe storm currently looks to be east of Rosebud county, but
freezing levels quickly dropping to around 6kft AGL over western
and central zones Monday afternoon will keep at least a small hail
threat in play into the evening hours. Tuesday freezing levels are
even lower and though this colder air will inhibit widespread
storms an isolated storm or two will remain possible and these
could once again present a small hail threat particularly with any
cell merger activity.
Ridge of high pressure builds in for Wednesday into next weekend.
This will bring dry and warmer temperatures Wed/Thu with ridge
becoming increasingly dirty by Friday allowing for a better chance
for afternoon/evening convection into Saturday. Another Pacific
system begins to influence the region by next Sunday. Chambers
This morning a few light showers will be possible from Billings
moving eastward along with a disturbance aloft. Local MVFR
ceilings can be expected near this activity. At the surface patchy
fog and LIFR stratus will be possible through mid morning,
diminishing by 16z.
This afternoon will see isolated showers and thunderstorms moving
off the western mountains into the plains, as well as over
southeast Montana along an eastward moving convergence zone.
Western convection looks light, but a few strong storms will be
possible near the eastern state line heading into the Dakotas.
Local MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected near convection
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Chambers
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
BIL 068 046/077 050/067 045/063 044/069 048/079 052/081
2/T 11/U 35/T 33/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
LVM 064 039/073 043/063 040/062 038/070 043/078 047/079
2/T 21/U 34/T 32/T 21/B 11/U 11/B
HDN 070 045/079 049/070 044/063 043/070 046/080 052/083
2/T 10/U 24/T 34/T 32/W 11/U 11/U
MLS 072 048/079 053/072 048/062 045/068 048/078 054/084
3/T 11/U 35/T 54/T 32/W 11/U 01/U
4BQ 072 046/079 050/074 045/062 042/068 044/078 050/083
4/T 11/U 24/T 53/T 32/W 11/U 11/U
BHK 072 044/077 049/072 044/060 039/066 042/075 047/081
6/T 21/U 25/T 64/T 42/W 11/U 11/U
SHR 068 041/076 046/070 041/061 039/068 042/077 047/080
2/T 11/U 25/T 43/T 22/W 11/U 11/U