Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 271625
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
925 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...

Tweaked PoPs slightly for today based on the current observations
and short term guidance. Otherwise, forecast looks good, no
changes needed. Reimer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue...

Radar and satellite analysis shows bands of snow over northern
Wheatland and Musselshell counties. These bands coincide with a
fronto-genetic region in the upper-left quadrant of a jet moving
through central Montana. As this jet moves northeast through the
area, so should this preferred area of snowfall. Webcams around
Judith Gap show an inch or snow on the ground with another one to
two inches possible through the late morning hours.

Northeasterly flow over Yellowstone and Stillwater counties could
yield an isolated snow shower through the morning, but as of now
the 700 mb flow is out of the northwest which is really
suppressing the lift along the foothills and central Plains.
Tonight, upper level PV center moves into south central Montana
which could provide enough lift to get some bands of snow to fill
in over the Mountains, foothills, and central Plains. Models
aren`t currently showing much, and we don`t expect any
significant accumulations at this time. Beartooth/Absarokas will
continue to see accumulations of 1-3 inches each day as we stay
in unsettled northwest flow through the early part of the week.
Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Synoptic pattern from the models are in good agreement for the
extended period, but due to strong flow over the area tend to
diverge on details of ripples in the mean flow. This suggest some
caution is warranted on temps and PoPs despite overall
similarities.

Main threat to start Wednesday is the wind. Tight pressure
gradient from Idaho Falls to Lewistown develops under a strong
northwest flow aloft. Local probability tools are spotting close
to 100% chance of wind gusts greater than 50 mph for the
Livingston - Big Timber corridor as well as Nye vicinity. Progs
suggest clipper type system moves by late Wednesday as well and
Bufkit soundings show strong mixing late in day across much of the
CWA potentially bringing down some 35-40 KT gusts to the plains.
We will continue to use our Hazardous Weather Outlook and other
social media content for awareness. As we get closer to this time
frame some wind highlights may be necessary, at least for the gap
locations.

Behind the clipper Wednesday a back door cold front slides
westward into our CWA Wednesday evening. This feature seems to be
a focus of some lift with low level convergence overrun by
unstable northwest flow. Where this baroclinic band actually sets
up is difficult to say (its usually from the Snowies across
Billings and to the Big Horns), but we will carry shotgun PoP`s
across the central zones for now including Yellowstone County.
Look for that baroclinic band of precipitation to weaken by
Thursday afternoon.

Afterwards, we see strong westerly flow carrying periodic
ripples through the rest of the extended period. Nothing
substantial or with significant impacts is projected into next
weekend, other than the possibility of some more wind episodes.
A stronger short wave is projected around Sunday, but again with
strong flow the progs may vary on the timing and strength of this
over the next several days. We still expect to see warmer
temperatures, around normal, latter latter part of the week. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Most of the ongoing snow shower activity will shift to the north
later this morning. There is a layer of stratus from 6SO to near
KMLS that will persist through about 19z at some locations.
Another round of MVFR/snow showers will affect the region after
00Z this evening, and widespread IFR ceilings may also redevelop
and persist overnight. Expect the mountains to be obscured much of
the time due to snow shower activity. RMS/Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027 016/035 019/040 025/039 027/048 031/050 028/043
    3/J 31/B    12/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    33/W
LVM 026 011/029 017/034 023/037 027/045 029/047 029/042
    3/J 43/J    23/J    43/J    21/N    23/W    33/J
HDN 032 015/038 019/042 023/041 025/051 029/052 026/049
    2/J 21/B    23/W    32/J    11/B    12/W    23/W
MLS 033 017/036 019/040 023/039 028/051 031/052 028/047
    3/J 12/J    23/W    21/B    21/B    11/B    23/W
4BQ 038 018/037 019/041 023/039 025/054 031/055 030/052
    1/B 22/W    13/W    31/E    01/B    00/B    22/W
BHK 031 014/032 016/034 018/033 023/047 029/051 026/047
    2/J 22/J    23/J    20/B    11/B    11/B    13/J
SHR 031 012/033 013/037 019/038 020/049 026/051 027/046
    2/J 41/B    21/B    42/J    01/B    01/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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