Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 240249
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1049 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Dry, high pressure will settle over the region. Temperatures will
be warmer Monday with some air mass modification. Another cold
front will move through the area Monday evening with a re-
enforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. Slight chance of
showers late week as a fast moving system moves through the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Skies remain clear across the area with temperatures steadily
dropping into the lower and mid 50s across the forecast area.
Winds generally have become light and variable with most reports
at 5 mph or less. With the clear skies and light winds expect
temperatures to continue dropping overnight and have lowered
temperatures a few degrees. This will result in most locations in
the lower to middle 40s for daybreak.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest on
Monday and cross the area Monday evening. Will continue a dry
forecast as moisture will be very limited given model precipitable
water values maxing out around 0.65 inches. Pre-frontal downslope
flow and weak warm air advection will promote high temperatures
well above normal, in the lower 80s. Westerly winds will shift to
northeasterly Monday night in the wake of the front. A cooler air
mass from the upper Midwest will be building southeast behind the
front. Monday night lows in the upper 40s to near 50.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper ridge over the center of the country will promote
northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through mid
week. Surface high pressure will ridge into the area from the
north through Wednesday before shifting offshore on Thursday. A
surface low over the Great Lakes region on Thursday morning
shifting northeastward toward New England. This system will bring
a weak cold front across the area Thursday night/early Friday.
Moisture will be limited throughout the period, so continued with
a dry forecast except during the Thursday/Friday time frame
maintained a slight chance. More dry high pressure will build in
from the west late Friday into Saturday, with another dry cold
front moving into the area Sunday. Seasonable or above normal
temperatures are forecast during the period.
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very high confidence for VFR conditions throughout the TAF
Surface high pressure has settled in over the Southeast resulting
in a weak surface pressure gradient. A 20 to 25 kt nocturnal jet may
keep light winds up overnight. Expect SW winds at 5 kts or less,
variable at some sites. The dry air mass over the area will keep
skies clear through the period.
Monday, a shortwave trough will move into the Northeast allowing a
dry cold front to approach the area from the north. An increased
pressure gradient will allow W/SW winds from 5 to 10 kts during
the day. The cold front will move into the area around 03z in the
evening shifting winds from W to N/NE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday and
Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the region.