Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291813
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie is just north of Charleston currently
moving northward around 9 mph. Bonnie will continue to slowly move
north northeastward reaching the Wilmington NC area Tuesday
morning. This will keep showers across the area for the next
couple of days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical Depression Bonnie continues moving slowly northward and
is currently just north of the Charleston area. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms remain across the area with the heaviest
rain currently in the CSRA and southeastern Midlands. Satellite
imagery shows the embedded thunderstorms with enhanced tops from
the CSRA into the Charleston area. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches
per hour have been noted...however with cell movement any flooding
has been contained to areas closer to the coast. Heavy rainfall
potential remains through tonight with another 1 to 2 inches
possible and locally higher amounts. Will continue to monitor the
CSRA and southeastern Midlands where the greatest amount of rain
has fall so far for potential flooding issue...however at this
point no reports of flooding have been received. With the rain and
clouds temperatures have remained in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with a few degrees of warming expected this afternoon. Have
lowered afternoon high temperatures a few degrees with most
locations seeing the lower to middle 70s this afternoon and
overnight lows generally in the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TD Bonnie is forecast to still be across northeastern portions of
South Carolina Monday before pushing northeastward and out of the
state Monday night into Tuesday. As long as the remnant center of
circulation remains close to the cwa, expect some sort of rain
chances for much of the area on Monday. Greatest chance will be
across the central and northeastern counties early in the day, and
may increase a bit during the afternoon across the entire cwa. At
this time though only forecasting high chance pops across the
northeast early, then increasing to likely during the afternoon.
Further off to the southwest, closer to the CSRA, pops will be
lower, mainly slight chance through the day. By Monday night the
low will be tracking further off to the northeast, and expect best rain
chances to push northeast along with the the low. Tuesday should
see more of a diurnal trend with any rainfall.

Expect temperatures to begin returning closer to normal on
Monday across the CSRA, but still remaining below normal across
the northeastern counties closer to the remnant circulation of TD
Bonnie. Overnight lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night close to
guidance and a little above climo. With more sunshine on Tuesday,
expect the entire CWA to return closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longer range models in general agreement with the upper pattern
through the end of the week. The upper trough that has been
associated with Bonnie will be lifting northeastward Wednesday,
bringing weak ridging into the region for Thursday and Friday.
Then for the Weekend, longwave trough will approach the region
from the upper mid-west, while a cutoff low develops over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Expect a diurnal precip trend of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end
of the week, then increasing rain chances for the weekend.
Have continued to stay close to previous forecast for
temperatures, with readings generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Variable conditions expected through the taf period.

Tropical Depression Bonnie remains near the CHS area and is
expected to very slowly move northward over the next 24 hours.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the area with
the thunderstorms generally near the coast. Expect showers to
continue...possible heavy at times...through the period however
the potential for thunder remains too low to include in tafs attm.
Winds will remain northerly through the period between 8 and 12
knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and associated restrictions
probable Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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