Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 011740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING AT 15Z. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND POPS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THE WEDGE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM THE 20 TO
40 RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS...SETTING UP ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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