Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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