Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 130703
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
203 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the
region today. A dry front will cross the area Thursday followed
by high pressure Friday and Saturday. Unsettled weather will
return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Early this morning...Surface low pressure along the New England
coast will push north while high pressure builds into the
southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly winds will continue to usher
in colder and drier air over the region. A lake wind advisory is
in effect through 4am. Wind speeds have been gradually been
decreasing over the last couple of hours as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Morning lows will be limited by the winds
staying up in the boundary layer and preventing strong
radiational cooling, but the cold advection is significant and
expect min temperatures to range from the mid/upper 20s in the
northern Midlands to around 30 to lower 30s in the lower CSRA
and southeastern Midlands.

Today...Northwesterly flow aloft will continue today while surface
high pressure builds into the forecast area from the southwest.
Despite sunny skies, cold air advection will promote high
temperatures around 10 degrees below normal, in the middle to
upper 40s. Surface winds will be out of the west/southwest at
around 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected Thursday. High pressure will slip south
by Wednesday night. A clipper system crossing the Ohio Valley
to the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning
will push a weak and dry cold front into the region Thursday
night. Moderating temperatures to the mid 50s to lower 60s
Thursday as the upper flow becomes zonal.

We could see some increase in clouds Thursday night as Gulf moisture
returns northward while low pressure digs into the mid MS Valley.
Models continue to depict the moisture return as a split stream with
much of the Gulf moisture remaining south of the area Thursday night
with the northern stream only reaching the TN Valley and remaining
north of the area. With the split stream and dry air to overcome,
Thursday night still looks dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models indicate an upper-level trough swinging through the
forecast area Friday night with much of the moisture associated
with the system maintaining a split flow around the area. Have
remained with slight chance pops for Friday due to low
confidence. Any rainfall will quickly exiting the area Friday
night as low pressure near the coast lift northeast. Surface
high pressure along with upper-level ridging moves into the
area Saturday.

On Sunday the high pressure will move away from the region as the
next low pressure system develops over the Southern Plains
region and ushers Gulf moisture northward. Models differ with
timing and intensity of this system however agree on the chance
for rain returning to the forecast area Sunday afternoon through
Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures through the long term will be
below normal Friday and Saturday with near normal for Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the 24-hr TAF
period.

A cold and dry airmass will settle over the region today as
high pressure builds into the area from the southwest. Skies
will be mostly clear at the terminals through the period.
Northwesterly winds this morning will become more southwesterly
by this afternoon and will remain around 8 to 10 knots through
the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$


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