Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 261218
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
818 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017
Fair and warmer today as high pressure ridges into the region.
A frontal boundary approaching from the west Thursday will
become diffuse Thursday night. Moisture associated with the
front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
and Thursday night. Fair and warm Friday and Saturday.
Increasing moisutre late Sunday into Monday as another front
moves towards the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper and surface lows will track farther NE up the coast,
while a weak upper ridge moves into the SE CONUS. Surface ridge
to our S/E, providing a SW low level flow, and warming temps.
Mid level capping will preclude convection.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough over the Central CONUS. Main upper energy emerging from
the base of the trough will shift NE into the Midwest/Great Lakes
region, remaining mainly to our north. Surface front will approach
from the west Thursday and weaken. Associated batch of showers and
thunderstorms expected to weaken as it enters our FA Thu aftn/eve,
as main upper energy remains to our north. Latest guidance
indicates chance PoPs mainly west and north. Increasing SW flow
ahead of the front with breezy conditions possible. Weak upper
high begins to build some near the SE coast Friday. Surface
front may become diffuse. Despite some slight mid level capping
developing, and appearance of a little less atmopsheric
moisture, diurnal heating may provide slight chance diurnal POPs
Fri aftn along old boundary or sea breeze.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/EC appear in pretty good agreement with overall pattern.
Upper high will build off the SE coast Sat/Sun, with a warm SW
flow aloft for our region. Model forecast soundings indicate
high LFC height Sat, but diurnal heating and just enough
moisture may provide slight chance diurnal PoPs. Increasing S/SW
low level flow Sunday provides increasing moisture/PW values,
with some diurnal convection possible. Models indicate upper low
to shift SE from the Central Rockies/Four Corners region into
the southern Plains Sat/Sun, then NE into the upper Midwest Mon.
A front and associated band of convection will shift east into
our region Monday. Guidance indicates mainly good chance POPs.
Front appears will shift to our S/E Tue/Wed. Both models
indicate a significant system could affect our region mainly
just beyond the current forecast period, next Thu/Fri. Generally
accepted guidance blend thru the period.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure continues to lift away from the area and mid level
clouds over the central and northern Midlands will lift north as
Heating and mixing should result in VFR conditions after 13z.
Winds will pick up after 14z from the southwest around 5 to 8
knots and gradually veer to the south through the day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.