Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 022214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS
AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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