Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 030500
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
100 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS UPPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -2 TO -3 AT MIDNIGHT. EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR MAY
STILL HELP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS ALL MODELS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -5 TO -7 WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR HAIL.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS DISPLAY DIMINISHED MOISTURE AND
THE MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP
SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH
H5 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -20 TO -25 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY IF THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
JUST WEST OF THE CSRA NEWRD TO JUST NORTH OF THE CAE METRO AREA.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 07Z-08Z DEPENDING ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WILL HANDLE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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