Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 031307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. FARTHER NORTH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/SKY/WIND TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ALSO INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY BY A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS.

6AM UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES. DEW
POINTS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM READINGS
MEASURED TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S TOWARDS THE CROWN
OF MAINE AND RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AS
THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVECT TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL STEADILY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE
CLEARING WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SPECIFIED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST
OF THE ACTION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MAINE. THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT WITH A TASTE OF
FALL AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST TIME LOWS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AT CARIBOU SINCE MID
JULY. A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
ALLAGASH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1025MB SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY FRI MRNG AND REIGNS
SUPREME THRU THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WL LKLY BE BLO NORMAL ON FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INTERIOR DOWNEAST CREEPING INTO THE
LWR 70S AND NRN ZONES STUCK IN THE 60S.

H5 RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY SAT MRNG WITH 590 HEIGHTS CNTRD
OVR THE GREEN/WHITE MTNS. THIS WL HOLD TIGHT THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM BFR WVS EJECTING TWD CWA FM UPR LOW OVR PRAIRIE PROVINCES
SERVE TO FLATTEN RIDGE. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH ABV
NRML MAXES PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BNDRY WL BE LURKING NORTH OF CWA ON MONDAY WITH AN ISOLD
SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLE ACRS NRN ZONES AT BEST. FRONT WL DRIFT
SOUTH ON TUE AND FRCG ASSOC WITH S/WVS ROTATING THRU IN SW FLOW
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HTG WL RESULT IN CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NORTH
OF DOWNEAST AREAS. CWA WL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AND HV
LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLGT CHC. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS WL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR VIS AND SOME PATCHY STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE VFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG IS PUSHING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE GONE LATER THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS 20 KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BERDES
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...BERDES/FARRAR
MARINE...BERDES/FARRAR


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