Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 220507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMING TO AN END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE
12Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE
ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE
W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND
BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE


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