Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
552 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A warm front will move across the state today. A cold front
crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms
expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Unsettled
weather continues into Memorial Day.


Update 5:50 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point
based on latest observations.

Clouds will increase today as high pressure moves to the east of
the region and a warm front moves across the state. Expect
showers to develop across the north and will also add the mention
of scattered thunder in the western portions of the region. Low
pressure is expected to develop to the north of the state tonight
then move away to the northeast Saturday Morning. Will use the
Consensus Blend for temperature based on latest verification.


Unsettled pattern continues with increasing humidity by the end of
the weekend.

A cold front is forecast to slide across CWA on Saturday. There is
very little upper level support with the front, but some llvl
convergence resides right along the front as it slides se. The
atmosphere does look like it will be unstable especially across
the interior Downeast and Coastal plain. The NAM is explosive w/SB
CAPES of 2000+ joules and PWATS of >/= 1 inch. The GFS is less
amplified but does bring SB CAPES to around 400 joules. The
lacking factors are the availability of deep moisture through
700mbs and the low/mid level lapse rates are meager w/around
6.0c/km. The GFS/NAM and even the ECMWF along w/the Canadian
guidance indicate some light QPF in the vicinity of the Downeast
region. Therefore, kept the mention of thunderstorms but pulled
back the POPs to 20% given the lacking factors mentioned earlier.
Temps will be in the 70s across the northern 1/2 of the CWA while
downeast and the coast will see AOA 80F given the wnw wind.

The model guidance diverges come Saturday night into Sunday as the
ECMWF and NAM continue their trends of bringing a decaying MCS
over the upper ridge into the region w/some showers and possible
tstms. The GFS and Canadian model keep things dry into midday
Sunday w/high pres at the surface and aloft hanging on. Since
confidence remains rather low, decided to blend the guidance and
go w/30-40% POPs for showers and possibly a tstm later Saturday
night into Sunday. It will be cooler on Sunday due to clouds and
showers w/temps in the 60s and 70s.


Increasingly humid into MOnday as tropical moisture gets pulled
northward from the deep s. Low pres moving across central Canada
will bring a warm frontal boundary toward the region Sunday night
through Monday. This system is forecast to link up w/the tropical
moisture from the se being ejected northward. PWATS are forecast
to climb to 1.5" at least as the upper flow becomes sw.
Coordinated w/GYX in mentioned heavy rainfall later Sunday night
into Monday along w/some embedded tstms. It will become
increasingly humid. As the warm front lifts ne into Canada, rain
will taper to scattered showers Monday night. The associated cold
front is forecast to slide across the region on Tuesday with more
showers and possible tstms. Temps will remain above normal through
this time period.

Drier weather Wednesday into Thursday as high pres moves across
the region. Temps during this timeframe are forecast to be near
normal for early June.


NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Periods of MVFR and perhaps IFR early Saturday morning
and then a return to VFR into Saturday evening. Conditions look as
though they could drop back to at least MVFR by early Sunday
especially for KBGR and KBHB. The northern terminals look as
though they could stay VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to
return later Sunday night into Monday w/the potential for periods
of heavy rain.


NEAR TERM: For sustained winds will use the GFS20. For waves:
Primary wave system is expected to be southerly swell 1-2 feet/8
seconds. This will be accompanied by a secondary wind wave group
out of the east today then becoming more southerly tonight.

SHORT TERM: No SCA headlines expected through the Memorial Day
weekend. Sustained winds 10 to 15 kts at best w/seas averaging 3-4
ft and this will mainly be across the outer zones. A swell could
set up Monday into Tuesday bringing higher seas to the outer
zones w/heights building to near 5 ft.





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