Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270045
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region overnight. A cold front will
stall across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...
With the exiting upper level disturbance and loss of diurnal
heating any isolated showers remaining are in the process of
dissipating. Mostly clear skies are then expected across the
region overnight along with patchy fog. Overnight low
temperatures will generally range from the mid 50s to around 60
north, to the lower 60s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to
adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures
and cloud cover.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front approaching from the northwest could spark scattered
storms in the north on Wednesday afternoon. Nothing too strong
expected. Expect Downeast to remain dry. Warm and fairly muggy,
but dewpoints should be just a touch lower than Tuesday`s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will pass to the north of the state Wednesday Night.
Expect showers and thunderstorms in the evening as the front
approaches. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to break
out across the state during the day Thursday as the front moves
across the region. For Friday the front is expected to stall near
the coast, so expect more showers in the south with dry conditions
expected in the north Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Uncertainty resides for the weekend into early next week.

Frontal boundary stalled along the coast will be the focus for
some showers and perhaps a few tstms Friday night. Further n and
w, drying out. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid
50s n and w while central and downeast areas will see upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Confidence is low in regards to the weekend w/discrepancy in the
longer range guidance. The ECMWF along with its individual
ensemble members along w/the GFS shows some light showers for
Saturday but drying out later Saturday into Sunday.The ECMWF being
most pessimistic especially for the coast w/its forecast showing
and overrunning stratiform rain. Decided stay w/a blend and keeps
low chance pops along the coast Saturday and went much drier for
Sunday. Brought chance pops in for Monday as an upper disturbance
moves across the region. Temperatures are forecast be near normal.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions are possible with any patchy fog
overnight. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected
across the region overnight through Wednesday. However, variable
conditions could develop across northern areas Wednesday afternoon
with any showers or thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions for through Thursday with some
brief periods of MVFR in showers during the day Thursday. Expect
VFR Conditions Friday through Sunday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels overnight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 to initialize wind grids through
Friday then reduced model winds by 10 percent to compensate for
cold sea surface temperature. transition to super blend winds
late Friday. For waves: With wind speed expected to stay below 10
knots through Sunday expect incoming long period swell to dominate
wave systems. Have used the Near Shore Wave Model to populate wave
grids. Will reduce wave heights by 1 foot through Friday as
boundary wave heights appear too high.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Foisy
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone



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