Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 261000
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
600 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the region on Today. Low pressure
will approach from the west tonight into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted wind and temperature. No other
changes.

Strong high pressure will crest over the region today then move
to the east tonight. At the same time an area of low pressure
will be moving northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will
spread over-running precipitation into the area late tonight.
Expect the precipitation to begin as snow in all areas then
gradually change to mixed precipitation from south to north
towards Monday Morning. For precipitation type will use the
precipitation type from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of
the Nam & GFS using 33 degrees for the frozen cut-off
temperature. For snow amounts will use the snow ratio blender
run on the GFS using the Cobb Method.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
System currently spinning in the Ms Rvr Vly tonight wl eject
northeast twd the area this weekend. By 12z Mon, most of the area to
the north and east of Bangor shud be all snow. Strong H8 winds mvg
in fm srn New England wl quickly increase H8 temps aft this time
with a mixed bag of pcpn acrs srn and wrn zones, most lkly in the
form of snow and sleet. Expect this transition wl quickly spread to
the north and east thru the day with with Downeast areas going
quickly to rain by noon. Coastal low wl dvlp late in the aftn and
enhance qpf acrs the coast.

Temps aloft still look to be in question tho regarding ptype. GFS is
colder than the NAM tho it appears to be related to juxtaposition of
H8 jet. Latest NAM has 40-50kt jet acrs most of New England in the
aftn while 00z GFS splits LLJ into two with a relative minimum acrs
cntrl sxns of CWA. With event being three periods away, hv gone with
a blend of NAM/GFS for ptype and can fine-tune as we get closer.

Pcpn wl gradually wind down late Mon ngt but expect pcpn to continue
acrs the far north in wrap-arnd cyclonic flow with upr-lvl trof
lurking nr the region. With temps well abv frzg on Tue expect that
most locales wl hv gone to rain by aftn tho questions continue to
cntr acrs the far north as the GFS rmns warmest with temps aloft
while NAM, CMC and EC indicate a mix of snow/sleet thru the day.

Guidance still rmns up in the air for Tue night tho NAM/GFS continue
to be consistent with EC and CMC slowly coming more in line with
soln. Hv gone with Superblend for Tue night, leaning twd lkly acrs
far east zones and hichc elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Hipres wl be building in starting Thur and persist thru the end of
the week. Models consistently showing next system wl mv in fm the
west Sat mrng. Latest GFS is suppressed well to our south as it
heads east off the Virgina Capes. EC brings robust sfc low off of
the NY Bight with some lgt qpf spreading into CWA Sat/Sat night ahd
of H5 trof. 00z CMC is most bullish with pcpn acrs entire FA Sat
into Sat night. Hv allowed for chc pcpn ovr the weekend tho
confidence is vry low with this system. Thru the end of the long
term pd temps wl settle out arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today then IFR conditions by
late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Expect to be IFR Mon morning at all sites in low
clouds and mixed precipitation. Improvement for southern
terminals possible on Tuesday though confidence is very low at
this time as to whether another system will impact all sites
thru Wed morning. MVFR restrictions may continue at northern
sites through the end of the pd in low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS for
surface winds. For waves: A longer period wave system (2-3
feet/8 seconds) continues to move northward into the Gulf of
Maine. This has been the primary wave system for the last 12
hours under light winds, however a secondary wind wave system
has developed and could become the primary wave group this
morning but is expected to subside later this morning and this
afternoon as high pressure crests over the waters. Expect long
period swell to continue to dominate this afternoon and tonight.
Will use the Near Shore Prediction System as boundary
conditions appear to verify well.

SHORT TERM: SCA looks to be needed Monday/Mon night for gusty
southeast winds ahead of sfc low crossing the Gulf along with
serly swell. SCA for hazardous seas looks to be needed Tue night
into Wed with small craft levels continuing into Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Mignone/Farrar


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