Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 282247
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
647 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon into the early
evening. High pressure will build into the area tonight,
followed by a stronger cold front later Saturday afternoon.
High pressure will build for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM Update....
Tstms did develop over portions of Washington County but have
since moved e. 18Z NAM soundings show airmass stabilizing by
00Z(8PM). Satl imagery showed low clouds hanging on across the
north an coastal areas while central areas including Bangor
have seen some breaks. Followed this trend w/some partial
clearing and showers ending. Fog formation expected this evening
especially in the areas that have some breaks in the clouds.
Adjusted the hrly temps to fit the latest obs and conditions.

See marine section below.

Previous Discussion...
There is a weak shortwave accompanying the cold front as it
moves through the Bangor and Down East regions this afternoon.
This feature will have ample elevated CAPE for isolated
thunderstorms in these regions this afternoon into the early
evening. Otherwise, the weakening cold front will gradually push
out the low level moisture through the evening. The exception
will be towards the coast and Down East region where fog will
linger until later tonight until the winds shift to offshore.
Two more upper level shortwaves affect the area on Saturday. The
first will arrive ahead of tomorrow`s cold front and affect the
Down East region with some shower activity during the morning
into midday. Have gone with mostly chance pops as confidence in
this feature is not high. Have specified a max of about a tenth
of an inch of rain with this feature. The second minor shortwave
is lined up with the cold frontal boundary that will be
crossing during the afternoon. The front won`t cross in time to
prevent highs from reaching the 60s across the majority of the
area. A few readings near 70F may occur in southern Penobscot
County. Onshore winds will limit highs along the coast to the
50s. Unlike recent days, winds will be the big concern for
Saturday with deep mixing and westerly gusts potentially hitting
nearly 40 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cdfnt expected to be just exiting the CWA at the beginning of the pd
with NW flow and caa occurring drg the ovrngt. Cyclonic flow conts
thru the day Sunday as hipres builds ovr the region. Low clds under
subsidence inversion wl finally break Sat night with mins dropping
down twd normal with m30s expected CWA-wide by Sun mrng. Winds wl
lkly stay up Sat night bfr starting to drop Sun aftn with building
ridge.

Wmfnt wl be approaching the area early in the weekend. All med range
guidance showing good area of rain drg the day as overrunning occurs
ahd of sfc low advecting in fm the Great Lks. Exact placement of
steady pcpn rmns in question with GFS furthest to the north with
rmndr of guidance slightly further south. Either way Monday looks to
be a cool and damp day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upr low wl be sitting and spinning acrs the Upr Midwest at the
beginning of the long term with rain likely contg thru mid-week. H5
trof wl exit the area Wed aftn with scattered showers expected Tue
ngt and Wed. Brief ridging is expected on Thur bfr next l/wv trof
sets up along the MS Rvr and vry slowly drifts to the east into
early next weekend. Latest guidance indicates significant
discrepancies twd the end of the week with EC and CMC showing fairly
steady pcpn thru the end of the pd as moisture streams in fm the
Atlantic. GFS, on the other hand, indicates coastal low ejecting
south of the Gulf of Maine twd the end of the week which wl
essentially cut-off moisture into the CWA. Still plenty of time to
fine-tune fcst but all in all it appears to be unsettled wx into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A wide variety of conditions exist currently from fog
in higher terrain locations and towards the coast to VFR at CAR
where downsloping exists. While CAR and PQI may return to IFR
this evening, the general trend will be improvement as the night
progresses...such that all terminals will be VFR by late
tonight. The last terminal remaining in the fog will be BHB.
Saturday will be VFR, but strong gusty west to northwest winds
will be an issue. Gusts may reach up to 40 mph in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: VFR to start out with Sat afternoon becoming
MVFR/IFR Mon morning as rain moves in. Improvement occasionally
on Tue but MVFR restrictions will be predominant through Tue
night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 645 pm Update...Decided to drop the SCA for seas as
waves have dropped below 6 ft and should continue the trend
through tonight. The fog will erode later tonight as drier air
arrives behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will be possible Sat night with wind
gusts aoa 25kts behind cold front and seas around 5ft.
Conditions will remain below SCA through Monday before possibly
increasing ahead of next system for Tue morning onward.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Farrar
Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Farrar



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