Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 272317
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
617 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING A SECONDARY ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
618 PM UPDATE...1004 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
EVENING RACES OFF TO THE EAST AND DEEPENS A BIT TONIGHT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF MAINE AS A 999 MB LOW BETWEEN
12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT RAPIDLY FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF IT FALLING
IN A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW AT ANY ONE SPOT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WILL RANGE FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH FOR MOST AREAS DOWN EAST TO 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE
ST JOHN VALLEY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE DAY SHIFT. MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A TRANSITION ZONE AROUND THE
MILLINOCKET/KATAHDIN REGION AND RAIN DOWN EAST. THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OF TWO ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CARIBOU
AREA NORTH. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON 6
PM OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT TO MUCH CHG IN THE MODELS IN HOW THE LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LKS AND ASSOCIATED S/WV ALF WILL AFFECT THE FA LATER TNGT INTO SUN
AS IT APCHS AND THEN TRACKS N OF THE FA. ONE TREND NOTED IN THE
12Z DTMNSTC MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE WARMER TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN WARMEST
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVR THE LAST TWO DAYS. WITH THIS IN MIND...EVEN
TAKING A BLEND OF THE MODELS BRINGS ENOUGH MILD AIR THAT LGT SN
EVEN IN FAR NRN LCTNS IN OUR FA COULD END AS A LGT MIX OR AS RN
SHWRS SUN MORN...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING LATE TO VERY LATE
TNGT OVR CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

A COUPLE OF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW LLVL
COLD AIR DAMMING FOR LCLZD POCKETS OF LGT FZRA IN THE LEE OF THE
CNTRL AND N CNTRL HIGHLANDS...BUT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP...THIS
IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY MEANS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL COLD
AIR THE LAST FEW DAYS...EVEN IF LGT FZRA DID OCCUR WITH SFC TEMPS
NEAR 32 DEG F... THE IMPACT ON WIDELY TRAVELED PRIMARY RDS WOULD
BE LMTD AT MOST...WITH LESSER SECONDARY ROADS PERHAPS SEEING
SLIGHT GLAZING. ANY LCTN RECEIVING ANY LGT FZRA VERY LATE TNGT
WILL LIKELY GO OVR TO ALL RN BY ERLY SUN MORN. GIVEN THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD CVRG AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...WE DO
NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY WNTR WX ADVS FOR THIS EVENT...WITH TOTAL
QPF BY MIDDAY SUN GENERALLY 0.15 INCHES OR LESS...MEANING THE MOST
SN THAT COULD BE REALIZED IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR N...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LESSER TOTALS SWRD...TO ZERO OR NEAR ZERO OVR
DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION.

IN FACT...MOST LCTNS WILL ONLY BE RECEIVING LGT RN SHWRS OR RN/SN
SHWRS MIXED BY SUN MORN...AS THE LGT OVRRNG SHIELD OF PRECIP
QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE FA BY OR SHORTLY AFT 12Z SUN. AFT ANOTHER
NGT OF MILD OVRNGT LOWS...SUN SHOULD FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF ABV
FZG HI TEMPS REGION WIDE...BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR FINALLY RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOWN EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST.

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHERN AREAS AND
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND TEENS TO AROUND 20 CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID WEEK. A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THE CONTINENT
COMBINED WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BITTER COLD
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH ON SATURDAY WITH ONE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE REDEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER TNGT
ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WITH THE ADVC OF LGT SN INTO THE REGION FROM
QB PROV. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN LGT RN LATE TNGT.
NRN TAF SITES TO TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR BY MIDDAY SUN AND CONT
INTO THE AFTN AS LGT SN CHGS TO RN FROM S TO N AND CLGS GRADUALLY
LIFT. DOWNEAST SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURG SUN AFTN.


SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR MONDAY EXCEPT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS COULD BRING BRIEF LCL IFR CONDITIONS TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES ON MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CLEAR AND COLD SKIES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BLO SCA CRITERIA...BUT
S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS BEGINS TO MOVE N OF ME. BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN GO BACK INTO SCA BY SUN MORN...CONTG THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUN AS SFC WINDS INCREASE TO THE STRONG SCA
CATEGORY (GUSTS TO 30 KT)...AND BECOME MORE WRLY IN DIRECTION AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD SRN LABRADOR LATE SUN. WE WENT ABOUT A
FOOT ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE GIVEN THIS TREND OVR OBSVD
BUOY WV HTS OVR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...CB/VJN/DUDA


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