Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 080441
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1241 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...DROPPED THUNDER FROM THE DOWNEAST REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING. AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE ATTM W/STRATUS AND FOG
SETTLING IN. MOVED THE THUNDER POTENTIAL BACK TO THE MORNING W/THE
FRONT ARRIVING. ISOLATED TSTMS AT BEST AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MEAGER AT BEST ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO MUCAPE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THE BIGGER THREAT AND KEPT THAT
IN. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

MORE GENERAL SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT AND SUPPORTING NRN BR S/WV WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA
BEGINNING DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS WED OVR FAR NW ME REACHING SE
PTNS OF THE FA BY LATE WED MORN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH THE MID LVL SRLY MOISTURE
STREAM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MEAGER MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY AND FAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MSLY SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED
ELEVATED CAPE CNVCTV ELEMENTS PERHAPS ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALG A BKN LN OF SHWRS.

FOR THIS REASON...WE MAX POPS OUT ARND 80 PERCENT N AND 70
PERCENT S WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH TOTAL RNFL THAT WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AS LITTLE AS
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR LCTNS THAT FALL BETWEEN SHWRS TO AS
MUCH AS A HLF INCH+ FOR LCTNS THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVIER CNVCTV
ELEMENTS. MOST LCTNS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.35 INCHES.
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONTAL SHWR BAND MSLY EXITING THE FA
BY 18Z WED...WE DO NOT SEE MUCH OPPORTUNITY OF STRONGER TSTMS TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVR SE ME WED AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH PLEASANT
SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AND A BIT
COOLER THEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FANTASTIC
SUMMER DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LESS MUGGY. ANOTHER
NICE NIGHT ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH...BUT NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ON FRIDAY A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER 500MB SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER WITH A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE DURING MAX
DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...BUT OVERALL ANOTHER
NICE DAY. OVERALL GREAT JULY WEATHER...GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU
CAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SEASONABLY MILD. A SMALL WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING OVER THE
RIDGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A SMALL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST MAY THEN GIVE US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM CANADA THEN HAS A CHANCE OF BRINGING DRIER WEATHER IN FOR
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS AFTER 07Z TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG COLD
FRONT. -SHRA EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FVE BY 07Z, SPREADING SOUTH
FROM THERE. AT BHB AND BGR, EXPECT IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS AROUND 16Z WED.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WVS WILL BE JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA TNGT INTO
WED MORN WITH A SRLY FETCH...WITH WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISHING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WED AFTN ONWARD AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. WENT
WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE
OUTER MZS050-051 AND ABOUT 65 TO 75 PERCENT FOR THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052.

SHORT TERM:
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT


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