Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 070407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1107 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT...DRAWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS
WHERE UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH AROUND
20 TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MID 20S
TO AROUND 30 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES..CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
INSTABILITY COULD REACH OVER H700 WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
UP TO 100 J/KG CAPE. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER MID MORNING AS IT REACHES
HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12
GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE
GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE STARTING TO BUILD IN REGARDS TO SNOW FOR LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THEIR
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEAR TO START THE EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE. THE CLEAR SKIES, COLDER AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE SINGLE NUMBERS
TO LOWER TEENS.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 2ND
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE FROM THE SE. THIS 2ND LOW LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR CWA COME LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC GOING WELL SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
STRONG HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM CANADA WOULD TEND TO MEAN JUST A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND A NUMBER OF THEIR
ENSEMBLES SHOW A 700MB LOW ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND LIFTING N. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS TO TRIGGER SOME SNOW W/DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN
PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE W/THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE FORCING TO THE E. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING AS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE SLOWER W/THE SYSTEM OR MORE
ORGANIZED THAN THE GFS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
AND BEST LIFT COMING IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE AND BROUGHT POPS UP TO 60% THROUGH
THE TIMEFRAME AND LEAN W/SNOW AS THE WX ELEMENT. GIVEN THIS SETUP,
IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR SNOWFALL, BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE
MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL
RUNS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN US UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RETREATING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT,
TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF UPPER TROF
VARIES GREATLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL OPTED TO STAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SQUALLS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR FVE AROUND DAWN AND
REACH BGR BY AROUND 1 PM...WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
THROUGH TUESDAY W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GALES COULD BE SEEN BY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF LATER AT NIGHT DOWN TO SCA
LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT W/BRINGING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT W/THE STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY W/SEAS
DROPPING DOWN TO 4-6 FT. LOW PRES PASSING WELL E OF WATERS COULD
BRING A SSE SWELL INTO THE AREA W/5-7 FT FORECAST BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT


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