Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 050709
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
309 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONCE TO CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS MAINE THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH, EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE, WITH THE LATEST
PROGS GIVING SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR ISN`T ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR AUGUST, WITH 500MB TEMPS RUNNING -18C TO
-16C AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPPING TO 8-9 KFT. AS SUCH, WOULD
EXPECT STRONGER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL,
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SPC`S THINKING, WHICH HAS
PLACED MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL IN THEIR DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED HAIL WORDING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY LIFTING UPPER TROF MOVG
TOWARD THE CAN MARITIMES WILL LIKELY BRING MSLY AFTN SCT SHWRS TO
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH MAX AFTN SBCAPES MUCH LESS THAN
FCSTD FOR THIS AFTN...ONLY IN THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG...SO NO
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS PD ATTM. ANY SHWRS SHOULD LARGELY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DYTM HTG AFT SUNSET. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BE BREEZY THU AFTN SHOULD SUBSIDE THU NGT AS BOTH THE SFC PRES
GRAD AND WIND SPEEDS ALF DIMINISH.

FRI LOOKS TO BE SUNNIER AND DRY AS A SFC RIDGE WITH A WEAK S/WV
RIDGE ALF PROGRESSES OVR THE FA FROM E CNTRL CAN AND THE UPPER
GREAT LKS WITH MSLY CLR SKIES FRI NGT. BOTH LOW AND SPCLY HI
TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVGS THRU THIS PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIG UNCERTAINTY RULES THE LONG TERM...WITH DAY TO DAY MODEL
DIFFERENCES SPCLY WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF A SRN UPPER JET
STREAM S/WV FROM THE TN VLY AS IT APCHS THE SE/MID ATLC COASTAL
STATES LATER SAT THRU SUN. ALTHOUGH MOST LATEST 00Z MON DTMNSTC
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED S WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUPERBLEND MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLGT CHC/CHC SHWR POPS LIKELY REMNANT FROM
PRIOR MODEL RUNS FROM 24 TO 36 HRS AGO AND THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. HEMISPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS SUCH AS THE NAO ARE FCST TO
GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE VALUES WHILE THE PNA IS FCST TO GO
FROM SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/NEAR ZERO TO POSITIVE VALUES IN THE NEXT 6
TO 10 DAYS...IMPLYING A PD WHERE MODELS MAY HAVE TROUBLE SAMPLING
THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL S/WVS AS ONE PROGRESSES
FURTHER INTO THE LONG RANGE.

IN ANY EVENT...THE CONSENSUS OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR OUR FA DO
NOT SHOW ANY PD NOT AFFECTED BY AT LEAST WEAK S/WV TROF SYSTEMS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIG S/WV SYSTEM(S) TO AFFECT THE FA
TUE INTO WED. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW REGIME AND
S/WV SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN...HIGHEST POPS ON ANY DAY WERE NOT
WEIGHTED ABV MID CHC CATEGORY ATTM. FCST TEMPS...SPCLY HI TEMPS
LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW TO PERHAPS NEAR NORMAL THRU THIS PD...
WITH FCST HI TEMPS ON SUN THE MOST UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON WHETHER
LOW PRES TRACKS WELL S OF THE FA INTO THE OPEN N ATLC OR TOWARD
WRN NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING
DUE TO FOG, ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z THU WITH VFR TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER RN SHWR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE VISIBILITY REDUCED TO BELOW 1
MILE THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS SLATED FOR OUR WATERS THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG PD
SWELL...SPCLY OVR OUR OUTER MZS...NEAR 5 FT ON SUN RADIATING OUT
FROM POTENTIAL LOW PRES MOVG ENE ACROSS THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF
THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN


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