Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 282222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
IN ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
NO POPS REQUIRED ELSEWHERE WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE IN WAKE OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER RIDGE SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO ALL LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. FOR LATER
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED BAND OF
VORTICITY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S
INLAND...TO AROUND 70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM DESPITE A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN ALL WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...MIGRATING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH A WEAK
RIDGE IN PLACE...HEIGHTS WILL DROP A LITTLE AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO A BIT MORE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...I HAVE RAISED THE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR. IT CERTAINLY STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE...BUT CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT BETTER THAN THEY HAVE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS
WELL...ADDING JUST A TOUCH MORE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO THE MIX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY. A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO LOSE
SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE...ALLOWING EAST/SE WINDS TO BACK SOME 20-40 DEGREES BY
DAYBREAK. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-12 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3
FEET. A FEW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARMEST GULF
STREAM WATERS LATE.

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE MARINE
FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THE DOMINANT
FEATURE...CREATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT SEAS
WILL SLOWLY COME UP SATURDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WITH 5
FEET EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET SHOULD BE THE RULE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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