Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 261713
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
113 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the region today and tonight.
A weak disturbance is expected to affect the area Thursday
night, followed by high pressure Friday into the weekend. A cold
front will affect the area Monday and Monday night before high
pressure rebuilds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM: No significant changes with the forecast. Satellite shows
the smoke plume from the FL wildfire continues moving
northeast. Surface observations indicate the smoke is elevated,
so we aren`t expecting any surface obscurations.

Otherwise, a mid-level short wave ridge will ripple over the
forecast area this afternoon. At the sfc, the CWA will remain
between organizing low pressure over Arkansas and high pressure
over the western Atlantic. The pressure pattern will provide the
region with strengthening SSE flow through this afternoon,
peaking between 10-15 mph during the heat of the afternoon. The
combination of SSE flow and high temps well into the mid to
upper 80s inland should yield a sea breeze this afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate that a strong inversion will remain
centered around H7, with CIN remaining through this afternoon.
Based on the forecast moisture and temperature profile, it
appears that Cu will remain very limited this afternoon.

Tonight, sfc low pressure will track across the Heartland, sweeping
the associated cold front across middle TN by sunrise Thursday.
Return flow across the CWA will remain steady through the overnight
hours. Overall, sky conditions are expected to remain clear to
mostly clear. However, higher clouds should begin to arrive from the
west during the pre dawn hours. Using a blend of temperature
guidance, low temperatures should range in the low to mid 60s, with
upper 60s across the sea islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strengthening high pressure over the central Atlantic and a
digging shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley will allow
increasing moisture to move into the area. Weak upper forcing
associated with the shortwave and a decaying cold front may
kick off a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon
and evening across inland areas. Otherwise, a building upper
ridge with strong warm advection will favor a warming trend with
highs climbing into the 90s across inland areas Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The pattern shifts during the long term as a large upper trough
shifts east and a cold front sweeps through Monday and Monday
night. A few showers possible inland on Sunday as some upper
vorticity energy moves through, but the best rain chances will
be Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through 18Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: No significant concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Today, at the sfc, the marine zones will remain between organizing
low pressure over Arkansas and high pressure over the western
Atlantic. The pressure pattern will provide the region with
strengthening SSE flow through this afternoon, peaking around 15 kts
during the heat of the afternoon. Return flow should remain steady
over the waters tonight, turning from the SSW. Wave heights within
20 nm are forecast to remain between 2-3 feet, increasing to 3-4
feet beyond 20 nm tonight.

A summertime pattern will prevail Thursday into Sunday as
Atlantic high pressure maintains onshore flow and a sea breeze
develops each afternoon. Strengthening southeast flow ahead of a
cold front Monday will likely result in Small Craft Advisory
seas over most of the waters starting Sunday night and
persisting into Monday night.

Rip Currents...The combination of swell impacting the beaches, an
afternoon sea breeze, and the upcoming Perigean Spring Tide will
generate a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The upcoming Perigean Spring Tide and recent elevated
departures will allow for coastal flooding with this evening`s
high tides. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for all of the
coastal counties. Elevated tides are expected to continue through
Saturday, so more advisories will likely be needed with each
evening high tide.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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