Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 022336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE VCT TAF SITE AND BETWEEN
ALI AND LRD. A POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER COULD REACH LRD WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST. THESE COULD REACH VCT AND
CRP BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES...BUT SHOULD
BE ABOVE 3KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES) ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS WL MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS AND OVER THE WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FURTHER
WEST YOU GO...THE AIRMASS WL BECOME INCREASINGLY TOO DRY AND
STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. CANNOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN CHC AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT DRAWN IN ALOFT FROM THE
MID/UPR LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE CWA. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIMITED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN BETTER...THE CAP BECOMES STRONGER...
AND THE BETTER MOISTURE FIELDS MOVE FARTHER EAST. EARLY ON IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY)...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE EAST
FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WILL ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EASTERN AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND
CONVECTION MAY BE VERY ISOLATED AT TIMES AS IT APPEARS THAT THE
MODELS ARE GOING A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS (ESPECIALLY THE
ECMWF). WITH THE LESS CONVECTION AND EXPECTED MORE DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OVER MOST
AREAS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE...ALTHOUGH
IF WINDS DO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THEN TEMPERATURES IN SOME
INLAND AREAS MAY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. FOR NOW...WILL BE FORECASTING
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.

MARINE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE PERSIST. OVERALL THE GRADIENT WL BE WK WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  92  76  92  78  /  20  30  20  30  10
VICTORIA          71  90  73  93  73  /  30  40  20  30  10
LAREDO            76  98  77  98  77  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             71  94  74  95  75  /  20  30  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  78  90  79  /  30  40  30  40  20
COTULLA           75  97  76  98  75  /  10  20  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  94  76  94  77  /  20  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  88  78  90  80  /  30  30  20  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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