Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 202349
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
649 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions this evening will transition to predominate
MVFR/IFR ceilings mainly east of SR 16 overnight. Patchy to areas
of MVFR/IFR visibilities generally west of U.S. 77 and east of
U.S. 281 during the 09-13z Saturday period. Isolated showers and
patchy light rain expected to develop mainly over portions of the
Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads Saturday morning along with
predominate MVFR ceilings. Predominate VFR ceilings Saturday
afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms/associated MVFR conditions anticipated for portions
of the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads. Generally light onshore
flow overnight/early Saturday, increasing to moderate/gusty
conditions Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

Sufficient low level moisture will be in place across the coastal
waters and into the NE CWA for iso -shra`s overnight. The main issue
tonight will be the potential for dense fog. Models prog drier
mid/upper levels and light sfc winds overnight. The forecast
soundings show a profile conducive for radiational fog to develop.
The main area would be the inland portions of the CWA out to Texas
Highway 16. For now went with areas of fog with no mention of dense
fog as there remains some uncertainty as to how low the visibilities
will drop. Moisture will increase slightly through Sat across the
eastern half of the CWA. The combination of the moisture with an
unstable environment, sea breeze convergence, upper level short
wave, and 50KT upper level jet streak, should produce iso/sct
shra/tsra`s Sat. The better chance will be across the far eastern
CWA and over the waters with much lower pops farther west due to
a drier airmass and more capped environment across the western
CWA. By Sat night, moisture is forecast to pool ahead of a cold
front that is progged to be pushing across the Hill Country
through the night, bringing increasing rain chances to the
northern tier of the CWA late Sat night.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

An upper level trough will slide across the central US this weekend
brining a cold front through South Texas Sunday morning. The front
will approach the northern counties of the CWA around 12z Sunday and
will quickly advance across the area. Moisture will increase ahead
of the system with PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 1.7" with the highest
moisture confined to the Victoria Crossroads and the northern
Coastal Waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across much of South Texas. Kept likely PoPs in the forecast for
Sunday morning across the Victoria Crossroads, the northern Coastal
Bend and the adjacent Coastal Waters. Cooler and drier conditions
will quickly filter into the region as the front pushes offshore
Sunday evening. Expect SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday as
the winds pick up over the Gulf Waters.

Another shot of high pressure will move south through the area
Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will be lacking ahead of the front so
not expecting much in the way of precip but the front will increase
the winds across South Texas leading to SCA conditions returning
across the Coastal Waters. Towards the end of the forecast period,
rain chances begin to return as another front is likely to impact
the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  89  75  87  58  /  20  20  20  50  10
Victoria          72  88  72  83  53  /  20  30  40  70  10
Laredo            71  92  73  86  57  /  10  10  10  30  10
Alice             71  91  72  88  56  /  10  10  10  40  10
Rockport          76  87  76  84  61  /  20  30  30  70  10
Cotulla           70  91  71  85  53  /  10  10  20  40  10
Kingsville        72  91  73  89  56  /  10  10  20  40  10
Navy Corpus       77  88  76  86  64  /  20  30  30  60  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


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