Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 300928
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF A SAN ANTONIO
TO EAGLE PASS LINE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD
TOGETHER WHILE IT MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. MODELS DEPICT
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE LIMITING FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAP AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTH TEXAS LIKELY IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON
HOW STRONG THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SREF
AND HI-RES ARW SHOWING WEAK VALUES WHILE THE NAM/GFS SHOW STRONG
INSTABILITY. IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CAP WILL
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED BUT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CANCELED THE SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AGAIN
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TIDE LEVELS COULD REACH 2.25 FEET MSL AT BOB HALL PIER. CONTINUED
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING. SWELLS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS.
EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SFC FRONT IS PROG TO BE
JUST NORTH OF THE SUNDAY EVENING WITH ESERLY LLVL FLOW SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY  ALLOWING FOR POOLING OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MOST
OF THE EVENING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH BOUNDARY
BEING TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE NIGHT THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AS MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SW CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. AS SUCH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT. GIVEN DENSITY OF AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
/AND ALSO AIDED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY/...THE
FRONT IS NOW PROG TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS STRONG SURFACE FORCING QUICKLY OVERCOMES A
WEAKENING EML. DESPITE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COLD
SECTOR DUE TO A STRONG H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS POST FROPA AIRMASS GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING
IN VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  87  74  82  /  30  10  20  40  70
VICTORIA          88  73  87  70  76  /  40  10  30  50  60
LAREDO            98  75  94  72  79  /  20  10  20  30  70
ALICE             93  75  89  72  80  /  30  10  20  40  70
ROCKPORT          89  76  88  75  80  /  40  10  20  50  70
COTULLA           95  71  89  68  74  /  20  10  30  40  50
KINGSVILLE        93  76  89  74  83  /  30  10  20  30  70
NAVY CORPUS       88  77  86  75  80  /  30  10  20  30  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM


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