Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231757
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SFC WIND
WILL TRANSITION FROM WEAK/MODERATE W/SW THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING TO
INCREASING NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BREEZY NORTH WIND ANTICIPATED
NEAR THE COAST DRG THE 12-18Z MONDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND CRP THROUGH 14Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY 15Z WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DRY AIR MASS...SKY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CRP
AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING TO EAST TEXAAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COVERING SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
FOR THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO WARM CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S...5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY...THEN DECREASE TO SCEC LEVELS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED. FROPA BRINGS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR...BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISM (DUAL JET AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) WOULD HAVE PROVIDED
SOME PRECIPITATION IF IT WAS NOT SO DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS
MOVES OUT (MAINLY OVER THE WATERS) BUT DID NOT MENTION THIS AT THIS
TIME. WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS.
GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN THE AREA STARTING THIS
WEEKEND...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES. BY SUNDAY ENOUGH
MOISTURE COULD BE PRESENT FOR SOME SHOWERS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO THERE IS A SORT-OF CUT-OFF TROUGH DURING THAT TIME WHICH COULD
SLIGHTLY HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT
INCREASED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  51  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          83  47  67  42  66  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  51  71  48  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  49  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  52  68  48  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           84  46  69  41  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  50  70  45  70  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  54  68  54  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




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