Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 291750 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

No major changes were needed to the forecast this morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
will continue this afternoon as upper low approaches and moisture
increases. Moderate rain and brief heavy downpours will be
possible with any showers. Highs look on track with upper 80s to
lower 90s. Did update the forecast based on latest obs and trends.

Please see 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A mix of vfr/mvfr ceilings will continue this afternoon.
In addition...scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common
this afternoon. For the afternoon hours...will keep vcts remarks
along with tempo tsra in the forecast. Additional showers will be
possible late tonight into Tuesday morning...and have introduced
vcsh remarks at ALI/VCT/CRP after 08z/09z. Low clouds will also
return and have included mvfr ceilings late tonight. Winds
through the period will be out of the east and northeast...with
speeds less than 12 knots.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Note Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions and scattered/numerous
showers/thunderstorms anticipated over the Coastal Bend/Victoria
Crossroads Today mainly over the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads.
Predominate VFR conditions late this evening then transitioning
to predominate MVFR during the 04-08z Tuesday period. Light N/NE
wind this morning transitioning to E/NE during the afternoon/evening.
Light N/NE overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS and GFS ensemble mean suggest that the
upper low will meander just offshore during the period. Yet...
the foregoing depict the sfc trough over the ERN CWA. Thus...
expect scattered/numerous convection Today near the Coast and
offshore with lower POPs central/west CWA. Low confidence with
regard to sfc forcing Tuesday...yet expect copious moisture to
maintain scattered convection...especially over the ERN CWA/MSA
near the upper low. During the period...rip current risk low and
maximum heat index values over the CWA below 100F. Tide at Bob
Hall Pier between 1.5 and 2ft msl...yet expect magnitudes to
remain below 2ft msl.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Mid level low is prog to slowly shift southwest across the W Gulf
Tuesday Night...allowing for renewed nocturnally driven convection
along/offshore of the Mid TX Coast. 00z ECMWF wants to advect a
potent vorticity lobe across the eastern half of the CWA through the
night...and in turn develops a large area of heavy precip. This
seems a little overdone and have leaned towards the tempered GFS and
NAM. The mid level low should continue to shift SW through the day
Wed with isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection
developing during the day across inland areas...with similar
diurnally driven convective setup expected Thursday. Drier air aloft
is then prog to spread across the CWA by late in the week resulting
in minimal precip chances and hotter max temps...with strengthening
mid level ridging then maintaining hot conditions over Labor Day
Weekend.

Tropical Depression 9...approx 100 miles west of Key West FL...is
currently expected to have minimal impacts across South Texas. At
this time...an increase in long period swell may enhance the rip
current risk late this week along Gulf-facing beaches. Please see
National Hurricane Center products for the latest forecast
information on Tropical Depression 9.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  87  76  95  76  /  40  50  20  20  10
Victoria          74  87  73  95  74  /  40  50  20  20  10
Laredo            76  91  75  96  75  /  30  40  20  10  10
Alice             75  89  73  96  73  /  40  50  20  20  10
Rockport          78  86  77  93  78  /  40  50  30  20  10
Cotulla           75  90  75  96  75  /  30  40  20  10  10
Kingsville        75  89  74  95  74  /  40  50  20  30  10
Navy Corpus       78  85  78  93  78  /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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