Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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664
FXUS64 KCRP 092346 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
546 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

A light north to northeast wind will persist throughout the taf
period. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots. VFR conditions
will continue tonight into Saturday morning. Late in the morning
into the afternoon, moisture increases resulting in MVFR ceilings
between 1500 and 2500 feet.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

Concur with the GFS deterministic that the upper pattern will be
characterized as quasi-zonal during the period. the deterministic
NAM/GFS predict a coastal trough to develop Tonight/Saturday.
Anticipate that this system will trigger isolated showers over the
ERN CWA/MSA mainly after 06z Saturday which should continue
over...and be confined to...the ERN CWA/MSA Saturday. Isentropic
lift and lowering condensation pressure deficits (NAM
deterministic) suggest additional isolated shower/patchy light
rain Saturday Night over much of the CWA/MSA. Low temps early
Saturday in the upper 30s/mid 40s with highs Saturday in the
lower 50s/near 60 (warmer max temps than Today owing to airmass
modification yet still somewhat cooler given cloud cover.)

MARINE...Extended the SCA for the Offshore Coastal Waters until
06z owing to high seas (06z cutoff based in part on WaveWatch
output for buoy 42020.)

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

A quasi-zonal mid-level flow sets up for the second half of the
weekend into early next week. A disturbance will ride along the
northern US border...to far north to have a significant impact on
Texas...but will drag a weak front into the area Sunday night into
Monday. Ahead of that front onshore flow strengthens and pumps
moisture and warm temperatures back into the region. Expect Highs
back into the 70s and possibly as high as 80 degrees in the south.
The front that pushes through will bring a weak wind shift, but not
have much impact on temperatures an humidity. A stronger front is
expected by the middle part of next week, but model difference
continue to be significant in terms of the strength and timing of
this front. GFS continues to show strong arctic front with surge of
cold air while ECMWF is much weaker and slower, with the front just
barely making it into the forecast area before stalling late in the
week. Have continued with a blend of models for this solution, too
far out to jump fully onto one model or the other. Should have
enough moisture pooled into the region by mid-week however to
justify isolated to scattered showers in the forecast with
approaching boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    43  58  58  75  64  /  10  20  20  10  10
Victoria          38  55  55  74  64  /  10  10  20  20  10
Laredo            38  52  51  76  57  /   0  10  10   0   0
Alice             40  55  55  76  63  /  10  20  20  10  10
Rockport          44  60  60  73  66  /  10  20  20  20  10
Cotulla           37  52  49  72  54  /   0  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        41  57  57  77  64  /  10  20  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       47  61  61  73  66  /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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