Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 222337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  84  64  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  60  85  59  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  88  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             86  64  86  62  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  69  82  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  65  86  64  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  83  69  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION





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