Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261131 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT KVCT AND KALI...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. FOG SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z BOTH LOCATIONS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. NOT
TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SOUTH WINDS UP A
BIT MORE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA-BREEZE (EVENING AT KLRD) AND INCREASING IN
SPEED. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND CLOUDS WHEN NO
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AT KVCT LATE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...AND HAVE GONE WITH 6SM THERE. VFR
OTHERWISE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS WITH WINDS WEAKENING SLOWER TONIGHT
THAN PREVIOUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINING FOR HIGH AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
TODAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MORE WINDS (INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION)
AND STRONGER CAP (700MB TEMPERATURES AOB 10C MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ALL DAY SUNDAY). ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER COULD OCCUR.
AM EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER TODAY (AND
SIMILAR ON SUNDAY TO THOSE ON FRIDAY)...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE
HIGH DEW POINTS...SHOULD SEE HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. WILL ISSUE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JIM WELLS AND POSSIBLY
REFUGIO COUNTY ALTHOUGH INDICES THERE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. WILL
ISSUE SPS FOR 105 TO 109 DEGREES READINGS ELSEWHERE. WARM AND MAINLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF WINDS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM.. BREEZY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SUNDAY
AS WELL. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SCEC FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE TODAY...AND BORDERLINE FOR NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. BIT LESS WIND ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING NORTHEASTERN AREAS...THEN NO RAIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH
DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST NEXT
WEEK DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT DROPPING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL WAVER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MOST LIKELY STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH IN
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HAVE ADDED JUST
A BIT OF 20 POPS TO VICTORIA/CALHOUN COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HELPS TO PULL THE FRONT DOWN. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTHEAST THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL NOT VERY
CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION DRIVING THE
TEMPS...BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND
MORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          99  77  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  76 101  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          93  81  93  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  77 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  77 100  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  82  93  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






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