Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 310449 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1049 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS LAYER WENT TO IFR QUICKER THAN EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL BEND...AND MVFR CEILINGS REACHED LRD A FEW HOURS EARLY.
IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE MVFR
CIGS REACHING VCT AREA AROUND 09Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD FROM
09-10Z UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WITH DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF A LAREDO TO BEEVILLE
LINE SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE
TO AROUND 2500 FEET OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS WILL
LOWER TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR OVER THE COASTAL SITES SATURDAY EVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN BELOW PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MIN TEMPS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE LEVELING OFF STRATUS
CONTINUES DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS MAY RISE
A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WAA INCREASES. LOWERED POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND INDUCED BY DEVELOPING
LLJ. FARTHER EAST...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO
LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY /THOUGH INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/ AS BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
DO NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED LLJ. NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WINDY DAY WILL BE LLVL CLOUD DECK LIMITING AMOUNT OF
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE LLJ TO THE SURFACE...BUT NEVERTHELESS IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRIMARILY THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN WAA
AND LESS DAYTIME PRECIP. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A POWERFUL WIND FIELD OCCURRING
AFTER FROPA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER MARINE AREAS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
GALE CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOMETHING FOR FUTURE
SHIFTS TO TAKE A LOOK AT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  72  59  72  47  /  10  20  50  40  30
VICTORIA          49  69  57  68  42  /  10  20  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  74  58  73  48  /  20  50  50  30  30
ALICE             56  74  58  73  47  /  10  20  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  69  60  64  47  /  10  10  50  40  30
COTULLA           52  70  56  70  44  /  20  50  50  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  74  59  74  48  /  10  20  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  65  49  /  10  10  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




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