Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 182023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
MEX AND APPROACH WEST TX TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS TX ON FRI.
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES W TX TONIGHT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS A 130KT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER S CLOSER
TO THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/PRE-FRONTAL BDRY WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS S TX. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
DYNAMICS...THE SFC TROUGH AND PWATS OF 1.4-1.5 INCHES WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA`S/TSRA`S TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE CWA...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS PROG MOD TO STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
MODERATELY INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS...MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS TOWARD FRI MORNING. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGD TO REACH THE COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM ON FRI
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MOD
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MX TEMP FCST FOR FRI IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE CLOUDS ERODE AND WHETHER THE CAA
WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE MX HEATING. KEPT MID 60S
ACROSS THE N TO LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE S FOR FRIDAY HIGHS. FRI
NIGHT LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S EXPECTED LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE ENDING THIS WEEKEND AS THE LAST SRN STREAM
S/WV AFFECTS THE CWA.  THE SRN JET WL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD AFTER
THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW MOSTLY PREVAILS.
THIS S/WV WL INDUCE WK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF WHICH WL SPREAD
CLOUDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A RAIN SHIELD
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ON
SUNDAY.  ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME WETTER FOR SUNDAY AND WL
SUBSEQUENTLY RAISE POPS TO CHC ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
AS A RESULT.  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.  WENT ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  THE MOISTURE DEPTH
STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SO WL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST EVEN ON TUESDAY.  A WK SFC RDG AXIS WL MOVE INTO THE CWA
ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND PRODUCE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
A RAPID WARMUP (SIMILAR TO MONDAY) IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  74  51  62  50  /  40  60  10  10  10
VICTORIA          59  67  48  61  45  /  80  90  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  72  49  64  50  /  50  20  10  10  10
ALICE             66  72  49  63  49  /  50  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          67  71  49  60  51  /  30  80  10  10  10
COTULLA           59  67  46  63  47  /  60  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        67  75  49  63  50  /  40  40  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       67  72  53  61  53  /  30  60  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM





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