Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 012348
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING FALL TO IFR
TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT THESE LVLS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. KLRD IS
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS...WITH CURRENT MVFR CIGS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED THOUGH AT KLRD AS CLOUD DECK LOWERS BACK TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND
LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. VSBYS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TERMINALS STAYING AT BELOW 3SM WITH BR
AND LIGHT DZ THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIFTING OF VSBYS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY THOUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM
FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITH A SHALLOW DENSE AIRMASS PERSISTING
OVER S TX. COASTAL TROUGH IS PROG TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH MODEST WAA OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED THICK STRATUS...LIGHT
PRECIP...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
NOT FALL MUCH AND WITH THE NEAR SURFACE COLUMN ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
TO GO WITH A NAM/SREF BLEND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD
REGARDING TEMPS. THICK CLOUD COVER IS PROG TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WAA IS MAINTAINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LITTLE RISE
IN TEMPS. WAA STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE KICKS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH STRATUS BEING MAINTAINED.

RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS SWELL HEIGHTS AND PERIODS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HEADACHE-INDUCING FORECAST FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
VERY SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS...ESPECIALLY
GFS...HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY POOR IN HANDLING THIS ENVIRONMENT. LOW
CLOUDS...INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...FOG...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WELL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AM TRENDING CLOSER TO NAM
SOLUTION FOR POSITIONING AND AS A RESULT AM CLOSER TO NAM NUMERICAL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NOT EVEN GET
THAT WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IS A BROAD SWEEPING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TIMING HERE VARIES IN A
SIMILAR MANNER...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...WITH ECM AND CMC
IN BETWEEN. FOR CONSISTENCY WILL AIM MORE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION
HERE AS WELL...WITH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FROPAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND
QUICKLY INCREASE. MARINE HEADLINES WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE NEEDED
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY ON THURSDAY...AND
PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FURTHER OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
THUNDER RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WOULD BE UNWISE TO RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES.

BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE STRONGLY...WITH GFS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AND ECM MORE OR LESS
REPEATING THIS WEEKENDS SCENARIO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH COASTAL
LOW/WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT AND FOG FORMATION. FAR TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT TO PICK A WINNER SO WILL EDGE TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. IN
EITHER CASE LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS CLOUDY...DAMP AND GRAY WITH AT
LEAST INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH VERY GRADUAL WARMING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...IT HAS BEEN A NICE WARM DAY ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE YOU
GET BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE. CLOSER TO SHORE...DAMP AND FOGGY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREVAILING TODAY. FOG HAS MIXED OUT SOME
ACROSS AREA BAYS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THUS...THE DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS
TIME. FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF
MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO
MODERATE FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  56  52  71  63  /  20  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          45  53  50  71  61  /  20  20  10  20  20
LAREDO            48  55  50  80  61  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             47  54  50  75  62  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          49  56  52  67  62  /  20  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           46  52  46  78  60  /  20  20  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  56  51  74  63  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  56  52  67  63  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




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