Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 271147
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
436 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Overnight water vapor loop showed the next Pacific upper trough
over the northwest CONUS. West to southwest winds aloft advecting
Pacific moisture into the Intermountain West and north/central
Rockies. Southwesterly surface winds were gusting to 40 mph
along I-80 between Laramie and Rawlins. Mid/high clouds were
spreading east across central and eastern Wyoming. Temperatures
ranged from the mid 20s west to single digits/teens east.

Forecast challenges during the near short term, i.e. today and
tonight, will focus on the Pacific low pressure system and cold
front, then switch to high wind potential for much of southeast
Wyoming late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Northwest CONUS trough and surface cold front enter western
Wyoming early this afternoon. Snow develops late this morning
over western and southern Carbon County, then spreads east and
northeast to the Laramie Range mid-afternoon. Snowfall rates
will increase this afternoon over the mountains and surrounding
valleys. Gusty west to southwest winds of 35 to 50 mph will
create considerable blowing and drifting snow and low visibilities
across much of Carbon County into southwest Albany County this
afternoon and tonight. Snow accumulations with this weather
system have not changed from the previous shift, and are in line
with WPC`s 06Z Day1 forecast. Still expect 8-14 inches for Sierra
Madre Range, with shadowing limiting Snowy Range accumulations to
6-10 inches. The surrounding valleys/lower elevations can expect
2-5 inches. For winter weather headlines, issued advisories for
central/southwest Carbon County and Upper North Platte River
Basin, and upgraded watch to a warning for the Arlington/Elk
Mountain areas where falling/blowing snow impacts will be highest
along I-80. No changes to the Warning for Sierra Madre Range and
Advisory for Snowy Range. Across much of the plains, light rain
and snow late this afternoon changes to snow around sunset and
ends by midnight. Snow accumulations up to a half inch are possible.
Light snow can be expected Tuesday through Wednesday across the
southeast Wyoming mountains.

By mid-afternoon Tuesday, the CAG-CPR 700/850mb gradients exceed
50 meters, and 60 meters by early evening in advance of the
next trough passage. The GFS 700-750mb winds exceed 50 kt along
and downwind of the Laramie Range late afternoon, and peak near
60 kt Tuesday evening. Given the recent model trends, confidence
is increasing for high winds impacting the normally wind prone
areas of southeast Wyoming (Arlington, Bordeaux, I-80 summit and
Vedauwoo). There is a chance that these winds could spread further
east toward the Nebraska border late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

Today will be 5-10 degrees milder than Sunday, 5-10 degrees cooler
Tuesday following tonight`s cold frontal passage, followed by a
slow temperature moderation Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Rather quiet weather seen across the CWA for the period with the
upper flow gradually turning from northwesterly to westerly. The
main concerns will be with periods of enhanced winds especially in
the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming. Strongest winds look to
be Friday morning then again Sunday morning with 7H winds progged
from 50-60kts around the SE WY mtns. Otherwise, a slow warming trend
seen Thursday through Saturday with dry conditions as a low amplitude
upper ridge slips east across the region while weakening. Next upper
trough to affect the area should pass by Sunday, with the EC a little
faster than the GFS. Some snow showers should accompany the system,
mainly falling over the mtns. Turning cooler in the wake of this
system Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 436 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Mainly VFR expected for the terminals east of the SE WY mtns through
most of the period. Conditions should deteriorate from KRWL to KLAR
this afternoon into this evening before improving again later
tonight, with areas of snow producing some MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys
along with mtn obscurement.  Some low cigs possible over parts of
the panhandle later tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

A fast moving Pacific low pressure system and cold front will bring
accumulating snow and strong winds from the Laramie Range westward
today and tonight. Light rain and snow will develop east of the
Laramie Range this afternoon and evening. A moist upslope flow will
keep chances for high elevation snow both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Stronger westerly winds will develop Tuesday night and continue
Wednesday. No fire weather concerns through mid-week due to cold
temperatures, high humidities and widespread snow pack.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
     Tuesday for WYZ109-111-113-114.

     Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
     Tuesday for WYZ110-112.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ


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