Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDTX 031701
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
101 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.AVIATION...

A PERIOD OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF VFR CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  LOSS OF
HEATING WILL FAVOR A CLEARING SKY AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING.  THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEGREE OF LOWER CLOUD CARRYING MVFR
CEILING NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO EXPAND NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A CEILING IN THE TAFS ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW IN CEILINGS LESS THAN 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
LAKES INTO LOWER MI DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE CENTER OF THE LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING
THE SHORT TERM AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL CAUSE A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ADVECTING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIMILAR MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TODAY AS YESTERDAY BUT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ADDING A COUPLE DEGREES TO
925-850MB TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NUDGE UPWARD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THE SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
BETTER AFTERNOON CU FIELD OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONAQL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM OHIO...MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

LIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SIGNAL INCREASED COLUMN WARMTH EARLY THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES TO 12C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING
78-80F THURSDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH A MORE ROBUST DIURNAL CU FIELD AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASED IN SHOWER OR TSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY,
SO OPTED TO GO FORWARD WITH A DRY FORECAST. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS POOR AND FORCING IS MARGINAL TO NON-EXISTENT.
ONLY NOTEWORTHY SIGNAL IN THE NWP COMES FROM THE NAM WHICH DEVELOPS
ERRONEOUSLY HIGH INSTABILITY DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THEN SLAMS A
LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE ERIE INTO A CORRIDOR OF OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE
THAT ISN`T GOING TO EXIST. A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER IN A REGION OF
INLAND TROUGHING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT A MENTION OF WX
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WILL EXTEND WELL INTO
CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FORCING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. COLD LAKES WILL ALLOW THE LEAD
EDGE TO ATTAIN PNEUMONIA FRONT CHARACTERISTICS AS IT RACES THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY. LOW CHC POP REMAINS
IN PLAY HERE WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION A POSSIBILITY IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT, BUT LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING AND POTENTIAL TIMING
LATER IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE LIMIT CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL. BEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TIED TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE CWA. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF
IT PASSES DURING FRI AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW...50S TO THE SOUTH.

MARINE...

DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLAY WITH VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.