Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 252220
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
320 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the area is bringing clear skies
and warm conditions. Monday high pressure will start to shift east
and more marine influence is expected at the coast. A gradual
cooling trend is expected through the week. Late in the week rain
is possible and much cooler temperatures are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure and offshore flow are bringing plenty
of sunshine and warm temperatures to the region this afternoon.
This will be shortlived however, tonight the ridge starts to edge
off to the east and at some point late tonight this will likely
allow some coastal clouds back onto the coast north of Cape
Mendocino. Monday afternoon temperatures inland will be similar to
today, but coastal areas will likely see highs only in the upper
60s due to weaker offshore flow and the potential for some clouds
around.

Tuesday through Thursday an upper level trough slowly approaches
the area as the ridges gets pushed out. This will bring a slow but
steady cooling trending to the inland areas and the coast will
likely see increasing stratus, although afternoon clearing is
likely. Some drizzle is possible overnight, but have held off
adding it to the forecast at this point due to low confidence in
the timing.

Friday into the weekend the trough finally moves through. The
models are struggling on exactly how far south to bring any rain.
Most recent GFS keeps the rain mostly up in Oregon until Monday,
while the ECMWF brings it down to Cape Mendocino for Friday night
into the weekend. For now trended the forecast a bit drier, mainly
due to the GFS putting off bringing any significant rain until
Monday afternoon. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and light to moderate winds will
continue at KCEC and KACV through the early evening. VFR to IFR
conditions and light winds to calm conditions will prevail at KCEC
and KACV late this evening through early Monday morning. The lower
conditions will be due to reduced ceilings and/or visibilities due
to stratus and/or patchy fog. VFR conditions and light winds to
calm conditions will continue at KUKI the next few days.

&&

.MARINE...The winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish
tonight and Monday as an offshore high pressure ridge weakens
relaxing the pressure gradient. An offshore high pressure system
will strengthen Tuesday and interact with an inland thermal low
pressure trough. The combination of the offshore high pressure
system and inland thermal low pressure trough will increase the
pressure gradient across the waters. Subsequently the winds and
seas will increase primarily across the outer waters Tuesday and
Wednesday. Small craft advisories are likely across the outer
waters Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds and seas will diminish
Thursday and Friday in the wake of a weak cold front as the the
inland thermal low pressure trough dissipates and the offshore
high pressure system weakens relaxing the pressure gradient.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The winds are expected to continue to diminish
tonight as the high pressure moves more directly overhead. RH
recoveries will still be very poor over the higher terrain, but
winds will be mainly downslope and light tonight. Over the next
several days the ridge will gradually get pushed off to the east
as a trough approaches the area. This will bring improved RH
recoveries and cooler temperatures. MKK

&&

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.

&&

$$

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