Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051633 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
928 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE.


&&

.UPDATE...MOIST EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT TOWARD THE COASTAL ZONES TODAY AS
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT HEADS EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
HIGH RESOLUTION AND SPECTRAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE PRECIP GENERATION. FEEL
THERE IS SUFFICIENT DATA TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER COASTAL AREAS FOR THE
LAST DAY OR TWO WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING TODAY
MAY REACH OR FORM OVER THE COAST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 504 AM PDT...

AN UPPER LOW HAS ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT NEAR 34N/126W IN THE BASE OF
A LARGE SCALE TROF. VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO PIVOT N AROUND
THE LOW AND BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED N INTO TRINITY COUNTY
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...AND A FEW MORE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THAT AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS NEAR THE REGION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE E 1/2 OF THE AREA.
LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -4 C THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. DUE TO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY WITH
MORE LIGHTNING. STORMS MAY ALSO BE A BIT LONGER LASTING. SHOWER
AND STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE N...BUT A MORE NW DRIFT
IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL ZONES
LATER TODAY. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

ONE MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS FROM THE TRINITY HORN TO THE YOLLA BOLLYS.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM E TO W...AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL START
TOINFILTRATE ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TIGHTENS
OVER S CA AND UPPER WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NE DIRECTION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
AS WELL.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR BY TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV
TODAY. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES AND DUE TO
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT SOME LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KUKI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE
TO REDUCED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR AT
KUKI LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
AND/OR SEAS. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS. A GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
WIND GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OCCURRING. THE SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND THE INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPAGATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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