Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 042318
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH FROST DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE AIR ALOFT WILL
WARM TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE FROST ADVISORY RANGE OF 33-36F AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING IN THE INTERIOR. THUS WE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY WHERE THERE MAY BE
IMPACTS. THE COASTAL VALLEYS IN ZONES 1 AND 2 MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME PATCHES OF FROST TOWARD EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
WARMING ALOFT AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AND 925-850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH
NIGHT. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE INTERIOR OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY TOMORROW NIGHT THOUGH.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AS MUCH AS 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH. MAX TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT
NORTH FLOW DEVELOPING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STRATUS
GENERATION THIS WEEKEND. THUS THE COAST WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP THIS WEEKEND.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A RETURN TO COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST TUE INTO WED. THE MODELS WERE STILL NOT
IN VERY GOOD SYNC WITH THE TIMING. THE GFS WAS FASTER WHILE THE
ECMWF SLOWER. FAVORED THE SLOWER TIMING HERE...WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIP ARRIVING AROUND MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
NORCAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION....A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW VFR TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT IN SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...THE AFTERNOON BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS AROUND
5-6 FT. THE 1950Z ASCAT PASS JUST MISSED OUR WATERS, BUT THIS ISN`T
AN ISSUE CONSIDERING WINDS ARE EASING. A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS IS CAUSING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE. ALLOWED THE SC.Y`S TO EXPIRE DUE
TO THIS. OTHERWISE, THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER 8 FT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
CAZ002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

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