Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 301100 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WITH ERIKA DISSIPATED...FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD
BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME UNCERTAINTY. AT LEAST FOR THE INITIAL PORTION
ON TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
ZONE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR RESIDING OVER MOST OF THE ARE WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO LOW END CHANCE AT BEST AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER.

THE BIG QUESTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHEN DOES THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM REMNANT ERIKA ARRIVE. ALL INDICATIONS FROM
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE THAT IT WILL BE A WHILE AS MOISTURE GETS
TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AND PUTS ON THE BRAKES FOR A
WHILE. SHARP POP GRADIENT IS THE RESULT WITH NEAR LIKELY FOR MY
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING FROM THE ATLANTA METRO
NORTHWARD AS AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 593DM HIGH THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THU WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING
FROM THE SW. DEEPER MOISTURE THOUGH IS STILL LACKING AND HANGING
OUT AROUND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE SO WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MORE
THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.`

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE NE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS PROVIDING FOR A WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO FOR US AND
SHUNTING MOISTURE FROM ERIKA WEST OF THE AREA AND AVOIDS ANY HEAVY
RAIN SCENARIOS FOR OUR AREA WITH THIS MODEL RUN. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT DEEP MOISTURE IS RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN TIER TO EXPERIENCE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINS WITH THIS
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING
OF SUCH AND HOW MUCH IF ANY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MOST ELEMENTS AND CONDITIONS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS ESE 10 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW PRECIP AND IMPACTS...CEILINGS...VSBYS...IMPACTS
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  67  83  69 /  60  50  30  20
ATLANTA         79  69  84  70 /  60  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     75  62  80  63 /  60  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    80  67  84  67 /  60  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        84  71  88  72 /  50  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     78  67  81  69 /  60  50  30  20
MACON           83  70  86  70 /  70  30  30  20
ROME            79  67  84  67 /  60  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  79  67  84  68 /  60  30  30  20
VIDALIA         83  72  85  72 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BDL



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