Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 261402
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1002 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016
Cold front currently stretches from the central Great Lakes down
through NW Alabama to the Louisiana coast. This front will
continue to push slowly south and east today. Previous models
have progged the boundary to reach south GA. Not quite confident
that this will actually happen. The front may end up settling
across north Georgia.
Regional radar shows convection beginning to pop across north
central Alabama ahead of the front. The atmos is slightly
unstable,so do expect isold/sct convection to continue developing
and spreading a bit eastward. Severe weather is not anticipated at
this time, but any of the stronger storms will have the potential
to produce frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds. In
addition, the wv loop shows some some tropical moisture beginning
to work its way into the system, so locally heavy rainfall will
not be out of the question either.
The main tweak to the current forecast was to slow the development
of precip down a bit, especially across the central and southern
portions of the CWFA. Otherwise, just made some minor tweaks to
the hourly grids. If the front doesn`t progress southward and the
precip develops later than expected, Max temps may have to be
adjusted slightly upwards.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 747 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
The current satellite loop shows some high
clouds streaming across the area with a developing frontal system
extending from the Great Lake States down to eastern TX. Moisture
will continue to increase across the region from the east today but
the main rain maker will be the frontal system as it pushes into the
NW corner of the state later this afternoon/evening. Will see
mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of
the frontal system. As the front moves in will see increased chances
of showers but still keeping isolated thunderstorms in the forecast
as the deeper moisture...better dynamics...and best instabilities
stay north of the state. This frontal system should be south of our
CWA by 06z-12z Wed as it ushers in a cooler and drier airmass for
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
For the start of the long term period...should see frontal
boundary make it all the way through North GA and a good portion
of Central by the time we get to 12Z Wed. Still enough lift
generated by perturbations in the overall upper trough to warrant
continued low pops for the extreme southern tier.
Front clears the entire area by Wed afternoon as East Coast upper trough
continues to deepen. There will be a series of secondary fronts to
push through the area as well...the first of which moves into NW
GA by 00Z Thu. Moisture is limited with this feature...but plenty
of omega indicated and should be able to squeeze out a few showers
over the far north.
Continued wrap around moisture looks to intermittently affect far
northern zones but precip chances look too low for inclusion at
this time beyond the Thu timeframe. Cool air advection pattern
remains in place for much of the period keeping highs right around
normal and lows some 3 to 5 degrees below normal.
Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue this TAF
period...but seeing some MVFR ceilings moving in from the east. As
the sun comes up the ceilings should lift back to VFR so ATL
should be stay VFR. Will see showers and isolated thunderstorms
later this afternoon continuing through tonight. Best chances will
be between 23z and 03z tonight. Will see some MVFR restrictions
to VSBYs in and around storms. Winds will stay out of the SE today
then turn to the SW after 00z Tue. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence High on all elements
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 88 67 85 60 / 40 40 40 20
Atlanta 88 68 83 61 / 40 30 20 5
Blairsville 82 60 79 50 / 50 50 20 0
Cartersville 89 63 82 53 / 40 40 10 0
Columbus 92 69 89 66 / 30 20 40 20
Gainesville 86 66 82 59 / 40 40 20 0
Macon 90 67 88 64 / 30 20 40 30
Rome 90 62 82 52 / 40 40 10 0
Peachtree City 89 65 84 57 / 30 30 30 10
Vidalia 88 69 88 69 / 40 20 30 50