Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 052336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED COLD CORE LOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTH GA AT THIS HOUR. AS EXPECTED...THIS HAS CREATED VERY
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9C AND 7C RESPECTIVELY. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON THE INCREASE SINCE
16Z. WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -25C AT 500MB...WE WERE EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND IN FACT THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE. SO FAR...A HANDFUL OF HAIL
REPORTS ACROSS THE NE ZONES AND HAVE HANDLED WITH A GENERIC SPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHER ISSUE HAS BEEN THE WINDS WHICH CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TARGET THROUGH
11PM TONIGHT AND WILL RE-ISSUE SHORTLY. ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN
STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES THE
TIGHT GRADIENT. MAY NEED AN ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORY AS GUSTS TO
30 APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

FIRE WEATHER MAY BE AN ISSUE AS WELL ON FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE
FUEL MOISTURE VALUES. WE WONT COMPLETELY KNOW THE STORY UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE SEE HOW MUCH RAIN ENDS UP FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL NEED A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REFRESHED LONG TERM WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE STRONG MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG CLOSED LOW CONTINUE PUSHING NE INTO THE W
ATLANTIC...WHILE AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE W GULF
COAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY STARTS TO RELAX.

SAT AND SUN LOOK GORGEOUS AS SFC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE RIDGE ALOFT WORKS IN. ALTHOUGH RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A NICE
WARMING TREND AS TEMPS ON SATURDAY REACH NEAR 80 AND PEAK ON SUNDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN BROADER SCALE TROUGH EJECT ACROSS THE
S/CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO SW FLOW AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY. LACK
OF STRONG FORCING AND ENOUGH SFC HIGH INFLUENCE SHOULD KEEP MONDAY
DRY BUT RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN BY TUESDAY ACROSS N AND W GA
AS CONFLUENT BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. LOOKS
/AT LEAST RIGHT NOW/ LIKE SOME STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
NEAR 1000J/KG MUCAPE AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR.THIS BOUNDARY MAY
FIZZLE TUES NIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS SEEM PROBABLE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A MUGGY AIRMASS/PROGGED MIXING RATIOS
NEAR 15G/KG/ PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

KOVACIK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLIER -SHRA
HAVE ENDED AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NW WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL AGAIN PICK UP ON FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  72  49  80 /  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         49  70  52  78 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  66  45  75 /  20  20  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    45  71  47  79 /  10   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        49  74  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     48  69  51  77 /  20  10   5   5
MACON           47  74  50  80 /  10   5   5   0
ROME            45  72  47  80 /  10   5   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  45  71  47  79 /  10   0   0   5
VIDALIA         50  74  53  80 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...RW


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