Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 020823
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. BETTER MOISTURE IS
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA TODAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. ALL THE HI RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS TODAY IS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS. HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING  AT SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THAT AREA BUT WITH THAT AREA FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT POP ACROSS THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY...THE BETTER
MOISTURE ALSO PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DAY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL PORTION OF THE SE PART OF THE CWA AND EVEN THOSE
POPS COULD BE OVERDONE.

TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR A BLEND. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IT WILL AT LEAST BE A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT FOR
THE SUMMERTIME.

11


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH GFS/ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO TAP INTO.
THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
DURING THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODELS SHOW STRONGER FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A BLEND OF
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN ORDER.

ATWELL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF FOG POSSIBLE AT MCN THIS MORNING...A VFR
FORECAST IS EXPECTED. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR ATL TODAY. NNW
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NNE BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS HAPPENING AROUND 09Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  69  97  71 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         93  71  94  73 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  58  90  61 /  10   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    94  65  94  69 /   5   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        96  73  97  72 /  10  10  10   5
GAINESVILLE     91  70  94  72 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           96  70  97  70 /  20  10  10   5
ROME            95  64  95  68 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  94  66  94  68 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         93  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...11



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