Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240520
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT
FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

11

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AS THE H5 RIDGE
SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE
RETURNS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GETTING BACK TO NORMAL.

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
LONG TERM PATTERN FAIRLY STATIC OVER THE SE CONUS IN SPITE OF
MODERATELY STRONG MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES. SW FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO PERSIST THRU THURS. 12Z GFS
STILL HANGING ON TO WEAK TROF AXIS LINGERING OVER GA ON THUR WHILE
MOST OTHER MED RANGE MODELS WASH THIS FEATURE OUT...NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE TO POPS EITHER WAY THOUGH. A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING ON
FRI/SAT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MATTER. SCT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA LIKELY
THRU THE PERIOD. MORE LIKELY OVER WRN COUNTIES MON/TUES BUT AREA-
WIDE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATED GRIDS WITH NEW MODEL BLENDS WITH EXTRA WEIGHTING GIVEN TO
HIGHER PERFORMING MODELS.

SNELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/ A SERIES OF UPR LVL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP S/SW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF N/CNTRL GA BY MEMORIAL DAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...UPR RIDGE REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY MIDWEEK AS EJECTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE
POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON AREA
POPS/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WEST
OF I-75. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS IT BECOMES "SANDWICHED" BETWEEN A MIGRATING /WEST/ CUT-OFF
LOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK (THURS/FRI)...REMNANT DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME COUPLED WITH WEAK S/W ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING UPR WAVE/LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DEVIATE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70F AS HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNS ACROSS THE STATE.

DJN.83


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED SOME SCT THIN CIRRUS IN THE TAF UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AHN. HAVE KEPT THE SCT MVFR DECK...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN
CASE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT THAN EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU 4-5KFT
EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  82  67 /   5  10  40  50
ATLANTA         82  68  80  69 /   5  10  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     79  59  76  63 /   0  10  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  81  67 /   0  10  40  50
COLUMBUS        87  68  85  69 /  10  10  50  40
GAINESVILLE     81  64  79  67 /   0  10  30  50
MACON           87  65  86  67 /  10  10  50  30
ROME            82  66  82  68 /   0  10  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  82  67 /   5  10  50  40
VIDALIA         86  68  85  68 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...


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