Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 101745 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
DROPPED WINTER WX ADVISORY AS NO MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED. UPDATED 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS/

UPDATE...
GOING FCST IS ON TRACK AS NW FLOW ALOFT AND COLD TEMPS ARE KEEPING
FLURRIES IN THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. WINTER WX ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE AND
FLURRIES LESSEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS IN THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIFT TO THE N THROUGH THE DAY. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR N/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. REST OF THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

JAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST DAYBREAK WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA TODAY
AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON THE
LINGERING FLURRIES AND TRAVEL ISSUES I HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED THERE.

THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE TASTE WINTER TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FLURRIES SHOULD BE ENDING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS
DRY. ANOTHER WEAK SLUG OF VORTICITY STREAKS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE. ANOTHER VERY WINDY DAY IN STORE TODAY...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING AND FLATTENING...MODELS SHOWING A QUICK TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. I
HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURES.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. EARLIER THIS
WEEK...MODELS WERE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE AND
A COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRY. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY.

THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE INDICATED THAT PRECIP TYPES WOULD BE AN ISSUE AND A
WINTRY MIX WAS POSSIBLE. THIS STILL HOLDS TRUE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET/SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN GA. HOWEVER...I
WANT TO STRESS...THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AND WILL KEEP THE
RAIN/SNOW WORDING FOR NOW. THE DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY
PTYPE WILL ALL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE STRONG WEDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA SUNDAY. THE MODELS TEND TO WIPE OUT THE
WEDGE A LOT FASTER THAN ACTUALLY OCCURS. SO...INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD STAY WEATHER AWARE AND KEEP ABREAST OF ANY CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH 00Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY
BKN DECKS LESS THAN 10KFT WILL BE CONFINED N OF TAF SITES TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING TOMORROW
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH 21Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-22KT
THROUGH 15Z...INCREASING TO 10-15KT W/ GUSTS 20-25KT BY 18Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 8-12KT AFTER 00Z. TONIGHT EXPCT LESS LIGHTER NW
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH

JAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  24  49  30 /   5   0   0  10
ATLANTA         36  26  49  34 /   5   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     30  18  41  25 /  30  10   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    35  24  48  27 /  20   5   0  10
COLUMBUS        41  28  57  38 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     34  24  45  30 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           43  27  54  36 /   5   0   0   5
ROME            35  24  47  27 /  20   5   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  38  25  51  30 /   5   0   0  10
VIDALIA         44  30  55  42 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAN
AVIATION...JAN


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