Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 030847
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
...LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO POP UP AGAIN ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES.
THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
INCREASED INSTABILITY SO CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME MORE ACTIVITY
THROUGH DAY BREAK. THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL SEE SOME MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 5-10KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 15KT GUSTING TO 25KT BETWEEN 16Z-00Z. EXPECTING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  60  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  60  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 /  70  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  70  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  70  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 /  70  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  60  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01


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