Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 210711
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
211 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 652 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018/

UPDATE...
For 00z TAFs/Aviation (see below for discussion).

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
The weak wedge that remained in place across northeast Georgia the
last couple of days has largely eroded this afternoon as well-above-
normal temperatures surge into these locations. The strong ridge
centered off the Carolina coast continues to put the CWA in a moist
southwesterly flow aloft through the short term and southerly flow
at the surface. A weak upper disturbance moving northward across the
CWA this evening will bring an increased chance of isolated to
scattered showers. Overall coverage and precip amounts will remain
fairly limited.

Wednesday morning will be another morning with low clouds and patchy
fog that will gradually break into the afternoon. The cold front
currently making progress into the Mid-South will stall well to our
northwest on Wednesday as the blocking high remains entrenched off
the Atlantic coast. The highest PoPs will remain relegated to north
Georgia Wednesday afternoon where upslope flow will spark scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This area also remains closer to
the influence of the stalled front to the northwest. Forecast
instability on Wednesday afternoon/evening is sufficient to include
isolated thunder across north Georgia, though strong thunderstorms
are not expected. Farther south, a stronger capping inversion will
limit convective development.

Temperatures remain well above average through the short term.
Record warm minimum temperatures appear likely Wednesday morning,
and forecast high temperatures are near or above record levels as
well.

RW

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Active swly flow aloft pattern with corresponding much above normal
temps to persist over the eastern CONUS thru long term period. 12Z
model guidance in good agreement thru Sat but as with prev runs, GFS
again stronger with fast-moving short wave over the midwest and
northeast states and faster progression of cold front thru the state
Sun. Bulk of remaining model guidance has weaker short wave and
slower progression of front. Agree with prev forecast that PoPs may
linger a bit into this weekend and even Monday unless pattern can
decidedly shift to NW flow aloft and troughing over the central
and eastern CONUS. Decrease in temps after the showers move out
may be more due to weighting of climatology in statistical portion
of blend than with deterministic model forecast temperatures.
Wouldn`t surprise me if well above normal temps continue into
early next week.

SNELSON

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015
                                        1994        1934
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015
                                        1917
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015
                1986

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885
                1925
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958
                                        1971
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958

Records for 02-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963
                            1963
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963
                1949
                1917
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939
                1980
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963
                1909

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989
                                                    1967
                                                    1947
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989
                                                    1947
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901
                1930

Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967
                            1967
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967

Records for 02-26

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1996     37 1979     58 1944     10 1967
   KATL      80 1996     36 1920     63 1944     14 1967
   KCSG      84 1944     31 1914     66 1944     18 1967
                1930
   KMCN      81 1981     39 2004     66 1944     15 1967
                1951
                1944


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR ceilings to start but will see MVFR and IFR/LIFR in the next
few hours. Ceilings will be slow to lift but should get back into
the MVFR range by 16-18z. Will continue to see isolated to
scattered showers across the area but they will be to hard to pin
point to put a good time frame in the TAF. Winds will stay out of
the SE at 10kt or less. Will see some MVFR VSBYs but should be
mainly VFR through the period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence Medium to High on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  62  77  60 /  20  30  10   5
Atlanta         77  63  78  60 /  20  20  10   5
Blairsville     70  60  72  57 /  40  40  30  20
Cartersville    76  62  78  59 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus        81  64  82  61 /  20  10   5   5
Gainesville     71  61  75  59 /  30  40  20  10
Macon           81  63  80  60 /  10  10   5   5
Rome            78  62  78  59 /  20  40  20  10
Peachtree City  78  61  80  60 /  20  20  10   5
Vidalia         83  63  83  61 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01



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