Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 270250
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1050 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017


.UPDATE...
Showers have just about dissipated and will therefore remove pops
from the grids. No other changes planned.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Cold front remains along the Mid Mississippi River Valley while a
warm front stretches across the Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic.
This means that the CWFA remains firmly in the warm sector.

Scattered showers have developed across portions of northern GA this
afternoon. Do expect this trend to continue during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon. There is some surface instability for storms
to work with, but lapse rates and shear remain fairly weak. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe weather is not anticipated at
this time.

A frontal boundary begins to push east of the Mississippi River by
late Monday afternoon. With the CWFA in the warm sector with good
southerly flow, temps will remain above normal. With the available
low level moisture, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain
possible, mainly during the afternoon hours. There is a little more
support for storms tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave moves east in
the flow, helping to steepen lapse rates. There will also be a few
more hundred Joules of CAPE around for the surface instability.
Once again, a few strong storms are possible.

Patchy fog will be possible overnight, especially where it rains.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Tuesday, on the back-side of a low pressure system/upper level wave,
a remnant surface boundary may result in just enough lift and low
lvl convergence to support a few showers/isolated storms. Otherwise,
upper level ridging will build across the SE region with a brief
period of rain/storm-free weather Tuesday evening into the first
part of Wednesday.

A significant storm system will move over the southern/central
Plains Wednesday. Medium-range models showing some convective
development possible along that remnant stationary boundary that
begins to orient itself NW to SE from north Alabama to south
Georgia. Most areas will likely remain dry and warm with max temps
expected to reach the 80s for many locations.

The unseasonably warm air will set the stage for potential severe
weather sometime Thursday into Friday, as the aforementioned central
and southern plains storm system moves toward the Mid Mississippi
Valley/Upper Midwest. Southern stream energy will interact with a
warm/unstable and moderate-shear environment to support strong to
severe thunderstorms. Too early to say how severe at this point,
especially given model inconsistencies with the exact track and
positioning of this system -- but safe to say the broader-scale
synoptic pattern is setting up for a potentially active end to the
work week across the Deep South.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Cu field dissipating although there could remain sct060 through
the night. An IFR/MVFR cloud field is expected to develop along
the Gulf coast and spread northeast into the forecast area late
tonight with cigs going to either IFR/MVFR. Cigs will become VFR
with mixing by late morning Monday and into the afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated tsra are expected to develop Monday
afternoon, but mainly across north GA. Winds will become light and
variable tonight, then southwest 10 to 15 kts by late Monday
morning.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on IFR/MVFR cigs late tonight.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  80  58  78 /  20  30  50  30
Atlanta         60  78  60  77 /  20  30  40  40
Blairsville     54  72  55  72 /  20  40  60  40
Cartersville    58  76  59  77 /  20  40  50  40
Columbus        60  81  61  80 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     57  76  58  75 /  20  40  50  30
Macon           59  83  59  82 /  20  30  20  30
Rome            57  77  59  77 /  20  40  60  40
Peachtree City  57  79  58  77 /  20  30  40  30
Vidalia         60  83  61  84 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17



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