Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 040019 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

16

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST GA AT THIS TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THE WEDGE JUST HAPPENS TO LINE UP OVER ATL.
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW MINS OR LIFR CIGS OVER ATL...PDK AND AHN
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR UNTIL THE ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE
CAUSES IFR CIGS TO RETURN. GRADUALLY LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
WILL SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS AND VSBYS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  73  58  59 /  30  10  60  70
ATLANTA         55  72  50  53 /  20  20  70  70
BLAIRSVILLE     50  65  44  47 /  70  50  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    53  71  41  44 /  40  40  80  70
COLUMBUS        58  75  59  61 /  10  10  60  60
GAINESVILLE     48  69  51  53 /  50  30  80  70
MACON           57  77  62  63 /  20   5  40  60
ROME            55  71  38  41 /  50  50  90  70
PEACHTREE CITY  54  73  54  56 /  20  20  70  70
VIDALIA         61  81  63  73 /  10   5  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP


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