Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 261134
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
634 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Relatively tranquil conditions to start the short term as sfc ridge
is settled across the region and associated subsidence allowing for
mostly clear and low dewpt airmass. Resultant RH values have
prompted another Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon/evening
(see Fire Weather section below for more details).

With the shifting of the sfc high eastward by late afternoon...we
should see a transition from NW to SE fetch in the lower boundary
level. The progged mid/upper levels indicate the zonal flow becoming
slightly more amplified to the west...allowing for gradual
moisture return and the approach of a weak disturbance by Monday.
Have trended increase in cloud coverage and have pops increasing
mainly for north GA by afternoon given some isentropic upglide.
Some meager CAPE starts to nudge into the SW also so included
slight thunder mention.

Blend of guidance looks reasonable for temps as we should be near
climo norms today and tonight...then moderating back to around 5 deg
above normal Monday (except for the far north given thicker cloud
coverage and precip).

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
A warm moist southerly flow will be across the area to start the long
term and will continue until a cold front moves across the area about
Wednesday night. N GA will be favored with the highest pops due to
upslope/overrunning type flow with the aid of some short wave activity
in the WSW flow aloft. Some instability over the area will
continue some mention of thunderstorms. The front will have to be
watched for severe weather potential as there will be 30-40 knots
of low level shear associated. The forecast dries out starting
Thursday with only a slight chance to chance of showers over the
southern- eastern portions of central GA to start the day...but
any shower chances will be brief on Thursday. Dry weather expected
Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal until the front moves
through and then temperatures will be much closer to normal.

BDL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While winds should be much lighter today (generally less than 10 mph)
..the low dewpoints should result in afternoon min RH values in the
15-25 percent range area-wide for at least 4 hrs. Given dry
fuels...a Fire Danger Statement has been issued accordingly

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions thru period as sfc ridge dominates allowing for
mostly clear skies into this afternoon. Some cirrus could flirt
with the northern sites by late afternoon then an alto deck
building in ahead of a weak disturbance by early Monday morning.
winds initially 7 kts or less out of NW then could be light and
VRB this afternoon before switching SE. Best estimate for switch
for near KATL would be after 23z today. Any precip chances stay
beyond the end of the current TAF period later Monday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on afternoon wind direction.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  39  67  51 /   0   0  40  40
Atlanta         60  42  65  55 /   0   0  50  20
Blairsville     55  35  55  48 /   0   0  60  60
Cartersville    59  40  61  54 /   0   0  60  30
Columbus        64  43  70  56 /   0   0  40  20
Gainesville     58  40  60  51 /   0   0  50  50
Macon           64  41  72  55 /   0   0  20  20
Rome            59  39  60  52 /   0   5  60  40
Peachtree City  61  39  66  52 /   0   0  40  20
Vidalia         66  45  76  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Baker



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