Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 311435
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOOKING AT 9AM
OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS IN MOST AREAS. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY 8PM
THIS EVENING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE AT 9AM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW MODEL CONSENSUS IS SHOWING TUESDAY AS
THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AT LEAST 1 INCH AREA
WIDE. THE CHALLENGING PART IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WHAT
HAPPENS BEYOND TUESDAY.

HOETH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-18 KTS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

09/GP


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25



&&
.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

 /





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