Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280447 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1147 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Nocturnal stratus is surging out of the Texas Hill Country at this
hour, and will be arriving in Waco around 0630Z, and 1-2 hours
later across the Metroplex. Radar-derived winds and ACARS
soundings show wind speeds increasing through 40-50 kts around 2
kft as a stout low-level jet has developed. Breezy surface winds
around 15 kts, combined with a limited directional change should
temper impacts from LLWS as the low-level flow increases a bit
more overnight. As the 925 mb flow begins to veer towards the
morning hours, stratus will begin to get shunted eastward. As a
result, cigs may improve to VFR towards mid-morning, with the
western Metroplex sites (AFW, FTW) improving first. Some high-
resolution guidance even shoves MVFR cigs east of all Metroplex
sites as early as 15Z, but feel this may be a bit too optimistic,
especially at DAL, DFW, and GKY.

A mid-level disturbance and associated warm advection will likely
result in an increase in mid and upper-level cloud cover during
the afternoon on Friday along with perhaps some virga. No
precipitation is anticipated as all signs point to the capping
inversion holding strong through the day. MVFR stratus will surge
back across all TAF sites Friday night, and this has been added to
the DFW extended forecast. At this time, it appears any
convection of significance should remain north and west of the TAF
sites Friday night.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
Low level warm air advection will increase tonight in response to
a developing low pressure system across the Central and Southern
High Plains. This pattern will result in a surge of low level
moisture with extensive stratus and mild temperatures by sunrise
Friday. Some warm air advection sprinkles/light showers will also
be possible, but the chances for measurable rain Friday morning
will be low.

By Friday afternoon the upper low will intensify over the Four
Corners region while a surface low deepens over West Texas.
Although the dryline will mix eastward through the day Friday, it
is unlikely that it will reach the western portion of the
forecast area. The only real focus for storms Friday afternoon
will be near a stalled front which should lie near but just north
of the Red River. There will also be a significant layer of warm
air aloft which should prevent storm formation. However, increasing
large scale lift from the approaching upper low, steep mid level
lapse rates above the cap, and the close proximity of the front
Friday afternoon, will prevent us from removing thunderstorms
from the forecast entirely. If any storms do manage to develop
near the Red River Friday afternoon, they should quickly become
severe due to ample instability and deep layer shear. Again, the
chances of this happening will be low, but not zero.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night through Saturday
once the upper low moves across New Mexico into West Texas and
the cold front finally begins to move south. Although the cold
front will be the major focus for convection, storms are also
likely to develop in the warm sector ahead of the front as large
scale lift increases and meso-scale boundaries from front-focused
convection spread southward. Instability and wind shear will
remain favorable for severe storms with all modes of convection
possible. There will also be a threat for heavy rainfall, especially
along and east of Interstate 35 where precipitable water values
will be in excess of 1.5 inches. Overall, this system should
remain too progressive to warrant widespread flooding so we will
not issue any Flash Flood Watch at this time.

The upper low is progged to lift from West Texas into Oklahoma
Saturday night which will send the cold front well south of the
region and result in increasing large scale subsidence. Therefore,
thunderstorm chances will end quickly from northwest to southeast
Saturday night through Sunday morning.

Dry northwest flow aloft will set up across the region to start
the week and bring quiet weather. After a cool Sunday with highs
in the 60s, a steady warmup is expected with temperatures reaching
the 80s by Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances will return Tuesday night through Wednesday
when an upper level trough and attendant cold front move
southward across the Central and Southern Plains. Thunderstorm
chances will end on Thursday once subsidence moves in behind the
departing system.

One thing of note is that the highly amplified system next week
may temporarily get North Texas out of the progressive pattern
which has been bringing rain the past several weekends.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  86  73  81  52 /   0  20  20  60  60
Waco                68  87  74  82  53 /   0  10  20  30  60
Paris               58  81  71  79  53 /   5  30  30  80  90
Denton              64  84  72  78  49 /   5  20  40  60  60
McKinney            63  84  72  80  51 /   0  20  30  70  70
Dallas              67  86  74  81  53 /   0  20  20  60  70
Terrell             63  85  74  82  54 /   0  20  20  60  80
Corsicana           65  87  75  83  55 /   0  10  20  40  80
Temple              67  87  74  83  53 /   0  10  20  30  60
Mineral Wells       64  89  69  78  47 /   0  20  30  40  40




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