Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231128
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected through the period with light north winds
becoming south later this morning. Southerly winds will increase
to 15 to 20 kt on Tuesday and veer to the southwest by Tuesday
afternoon.

Dunn

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/
The next week will feature near nil precipitation chances across
the region, along with several reinforcing shots of cooler and
drier air as fast-moving disturbances zip across the central
CONUS.

Today, high pressure will crest overhead, resulting in veering
surface winds which will gradually become southerly this morning
and afternoon. Some south/southwesterly breezes will occur out
west, but nothing like what was experienced on Sunday. This
southerly low-level flow will transport some additional moisture
into our southeastern counties tonight, with dewpoints jumping
into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. As dewpoint depressions
fall, there could be a low chance for some patchy fog development
south and east of an Athens to Cameron line. However, forecast
soundings show this will be a very thin layer of moisture with
just enough flow off the deck to keep things mixed up. As a
result, have forgone any mention of fog at this time.

On Tuesday, another low pressure system will deepen rapidly across
parts of Kansas. Wind fields will respond, with 850 mb wind speeds
increasing to around 40 kts. Decent diabatic heating, tempered
only by some high cloud cover, should allow us to mix up into some
of this flow during the afternoon hours. The result will be a
very warm day, with temperatures likely soaring into the middle
and even upper 70s across much of the region, with gusty
southwesterly winds--potentially even approaching wind advisory
criteria across our westernmost counties. A dryline will
additionally mix eastward, resulting in very low afternoon
relative humidities in the low to mid 20 percent-range west of
I-35. This low moisture, coupled with strong winds and
anomalously warm temperatures will likely result in a period with
an elevated grass fire threat.

This aformentioned low will then send a cold front through the
region Tuesday evening. At this time, it appears moisture will
remain too paltry to support any precipitation with the front,
although there may be a low risk for a few showers just south and
east of our forecast area.

The rest of the week will feature temperatures generally in the
middle 50s to near 60 degrees--actually near-normal for this time
of year. Wednesday night could be pretty chilly with temperatures
dipping into the upper 20s and mid 30s as surface high pressure
moves almost directly overhead. Yet another front will slide
through the region Friday night and into Saturday, but once again,
moisture appears too limited to support an explicit mention of
precipitation in the forecast.

Carlaw

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  49  76  43  57 /   0   0   5   5   5
Waco                70  48  78  42  60 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               61  45  72  43  53 /   0   0   5   5   5
Denton              65  47  74  39  54 /   0   0   5   5   5
McKinney            63  46  73  41  55 /   0   0   5   5   5
Dallas              68  50  75  44  57 /   0   0   5   5   5
Terrell             64  47  74  43  57 /   0   0   5   5   5
Corsicana           67  49  77  44  59 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              72  49  77  43  61 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       71  48  74  38  56 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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