Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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658
FXUS64 KFWD 140637
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms may produce locally heavy rain
  through this evening.

- Isolated storms are expected on Tuesday, followed by seasonable
  weather with little to no rain the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

A slow-moving mid-level trough, augmented by the MCV now located
east of Stephenville and bolstered by persistent low-level warm
advection, continues to act as the primary weather influence
across the region this morning. KFWD`s 00Z RAOB sampled a PWAT of
1.74" which reflects the anomalously high moisture still pooling
across the Southern Plains. A narrow ribbon of enhanced vorticity
stretching from the Edwards Plateau into southeast Oklahoma
remains trapped on the western flank of the departing trough this
morning continuing to support convective development across the
state.

Current KGRK radar imagery shows a growing band of convection
feeding into the circulation center of the MCV. This activity is
developing on the southern edge of the vortex, where low- to mid-
level convergence and ascent are enhanced by the MCV`s cyclonic
circulation. Expect this mesoscale corridor of ascent to persist
through the morning, leading to localized downpours in the
vicinity of the MCV.

By this afternoon, the aforementioned upper trough axis will have
have shifted slightly eastward but should remain a dominant
feature over the area. Lingering moisture and weak ascent will
sustain low (20-30%) thunderstorm chances, especially in the
vicinity of any remnant boundaries/outflows left behind by
earlier convection. Moderately strong diurnal heating and the
corresponding increase in surface-based instability could allow
for a brief strong storm or two, particularly where surface
heating becomes locally maximized. However, the main hazard will
still be locally heavy rainfall given the high PWAT environment.

Tuesday will begin the transition towards warmer and drier
weather as the mid-level trough exits to the northeast and the
mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. slowly builds into eastern
Texas. There will likely still be sufficient moisture in place
(PWATS of 1.5 to 2") such that the lingering ascent from the
exiting trough could support a few showers or isolated storms
north and west of the ridge (west of I-35 and along the Red River)
Tuesday afternoon.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The main story in the long term period will be the return of
summer heat, albeit with some restraint initially due to lingering
moisture and weak flow aloft. Mid-level heights will gradually
rise through the week as ridging over the Southeast U.S. expands
westward. This will effectively shut down convective chances area-wide
by Wednesday. Temperatures will respond accordingly. Afternoon
highs on Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the mid 90s. Humid
surface conditions, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s,
will yield heat index values in the 100-104 degree range. While
this is just below Heat Advisory criteria, caution is still
warranted for those spending any amount of time outdoors.

By Friday and into the weekend, ensemble guidance is in good
agreement that the ridge will broaden and strength across the
southern CONUS, placing our area firmly under a subsident regime.
As a result, temperatures will continue to climb, especially west
of I-35 where highs may approach the triple digits with enough
humidity lingering to push heat index values to 100-106 F during
the peak afternoon hours. Rain chances will remain limited with
the only potential tied to seabreeze-driven showers or storms that
push into our southeastern counties.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A cluster of showers and isolated storms just north of Waco is
moving north-northeast at 25 kt, and will affect much of the
Metroplex in few hours. Will move up VCTS to the 08-11Z window for
the Metroplex TAFs, and VCTS should conversely end at KACT in the
next hour. Will re-introduce VCTS to all Metroplex TAFs this
afternoon at 21Z as the atmosphere destabilizes and scattered
storms redevelop. It may also need to be added to the KACT TAF
depending on what model guidance looks like overnight. Scattered
storms should dissipate around or shortly after 15/03Z. Otherwise,
a brief round of MVFR ceilings in the morning should be followed
by VFR the rest of the TAF period.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  76  94  76  94 /  30  20  10   5   5
Waco                90  74  91  73  91 /  30  20  10   5   0
Paris               87  72  92  73  93 /  40  20  30   5   5
Denton              92  74  94  75  95 /  30  10  20   5   5
McKinney            90  74  93  76  94 /  40  20  20   5   5
Dallas              93  76  95  76  95 /  40  20  10   5   5
Terrell             90  74  93  74  93 /  40  20  10   0   0
Corsicana           92  75  94  75  94 /  40  20  10   0   0
Temple              91  73  92  73  93 /  30  10  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  73  94  74  94 /  20  10  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$