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000
FXUS64 KFWD 012345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN FOR
THE TIME BEING. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 75-80 PERCENT RH CONTINUING BELOW THE FRONTAL
INVERSION THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

WITH COOLING TONIGHT BELOW THE INVERSION...THE PLAN IS TO REINTRODUCE
LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE AREA... INCLUDING WACO WHERE A BRIEF
TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM
SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. DFW METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE DEEPER
MIXING AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING.

NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS ON SATURDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79