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000
FXUS64 KFWD 280930
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE ARE
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 81 DEGREES AT WACO WHICH IF IT HAPPENS WILL
TIE THE RECORD HIGH FOR JANUARY 28TH SET IN 1970 AND 2013. WE ARE
ALSO FORECASTING A HIGH OF 81 DEGREES AT DFW WHICH IS 4 DEGREES
SHORT OF THEIR RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1903.

A SHORTWAVE THAT ACCORDING TO SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AS OF 0815Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO NEAR A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY....AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AS
THE FRONT PASSES. THURSDAY MORNING/S LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SOME LOWER 70S SHOULD
BE REACHED.

WE WILL SEE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES...SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAJA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE BAJA LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DRY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.



58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1123 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

VFR WITH FEW-SCT250 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN BECOMING
14G24KT FOR THE THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING THEN FOLLOWED BY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 29/06 AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FROPA FOR KDFW IS EXPECTED AROUND 29/12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  51  62  39  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              81  49  69  40  55 /   0   0   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             77  50  62  35  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  48  61  36  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          79  50  62  37  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            81  51  62  40  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           81  51  64  38  54 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  51  68  40  55 /   0   0   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  50  70  42  56 /   0   0   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  49  62  36  52 /   0   0   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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