Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 290432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
932 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COLD AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS HELD UP FURTHER TO THE WEST. MAIN UPDATE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY.
ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO BLOWING SNOW AREAS AS WILL NEED SOME
SNOW BEFORE IT CAN BLOW AROUND. ADVISORIES SEEM ON TRACK ALTHOUGH
MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WIND CHILLS. EBERT

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN
TIER ZONES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT MAY INITIALLY MIX WITH SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT OVER TO SNOW. CAA WILL
HELP MIX DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT WELL WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONDITIONS. EXPECT ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO COMBINE TO CREATE WIND CHILL
HAZARDS AS WELL. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THIS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE
A SEGMENTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TO COVER THESE
THREATS. THE FIRST SEGMENT WILL BEGIN FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES AT
06Z THIS EVENING AND GO THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE SECOND SEGMENT
WHICH COVERS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINS AT 19Z
SATURDAY AND WILL GO THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

AFTER EXPIRATION OF THIS HEADLINE...EXPECT BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THUS...CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE REPLACED BY WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE SKY CLEARS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...FRESH SNOW PACK WILL
AID RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW ZERO. ARCTIC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A FIRM GRIP ON SUNDAY SO
EXPECT RECOVERY ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW MORE OR LESS STANDS. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF
THE EXTENDED MODELS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE WARMING AS FLOW TURNS FROM THE ARCTIC
TO THE PACIFIC. REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH SPREAD
INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO EDGE EASTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM
DRY AIR ACROSS THE DIVIDE UNTIL A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE BRINGS A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE WAVE
MOVES EAST.

RIDGE BEGINS TO REBOUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AIRMASS WARMING. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT AGREEING WITH
TIMING OR TRACK. HOWEVER THEY ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING THE REGION
DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE DOMINATING. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS (BELOW 2K FT AGL) AT KGGW AND KOLF ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT (EXPECT FUEL LOADING). SNOW AND/OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LAST FOR ABOUT 2
HOURS...REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM OR SO. ANOTHER BATCH OF
SNOW WILL MOVE NW TO SE THROUGH ALL OF NE MT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES.

NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...DRIFTING
THE SNOW ACROSS RUNWAYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
DAWSON...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
WIBAUX.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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