Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 290941
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
241 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WITH A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND FRIDAY. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE RUNNING WARMER THAN NORMAL...ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 15F DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED THE FOG THROUGH 15Z.

CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A WAVE
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY THAT BRINGS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE LOCAL REGION IN COINCIDENCE WITH A SHORT-WAVE
CLIPPER. THE FRONT QUICKLY DROPS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVERNIGHT. OVERRUNNING PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO FALL MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
MORNING AND BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO BECOME FLURRIES. CAA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL LIMIT
HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH IS IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR NOW IS QPF. ALL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL BE SNOW...WITH INCREASING SNOW RATIOS. SO FAR
QPF LIMITS SNOW AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND MAYBE UP TO 3
INCHES NORTH OF THE HI-LINE. WIND WILL BE BRISK FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR BLSN. SO ADDED PATCHY BLSN TO AREAS OF
STRONGEST WIND. SCT



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE TOGETHER WITH HUDSON BAY LOW LEAVES
REGION BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT AS HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS ALLOWING
COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO PUSH INTO MONTANA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND LOW BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGH REMAINDER OF
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...SO WILL SIMPLY GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DO NOT SUPPORT GENERATION OF STRONG
WINDS...SO EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. BRITTON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR...BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING.

CIGS AND VSBY: MVFR WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

WIND: WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT THEN PICK UP A BIT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KGGW WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS. TFJ


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE
CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. MINOR FLOODING WAS
REPORTED AT 7 MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE AND BEAVER CREEK NEAR
WIBAUX...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL...WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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