Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 240351 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
951 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Wed...

Sent an update tonight to cancel the Lake Wind Advisory and to
fine tune tonight`s forecast grids to the latest near and short
term model consensus. The upper-level low center remains nearly
stationary over southern Saskatchewan with a few thunderstorms
cycling around its periphery, but that activity seems to be
lacking over northeast Montana, resulting only in a few scattered
rain showers which are expected to continue to diminish through
the overnight hours.     BMickelson

The main driver of the weather over northeast Montana tonight will
continue to be the low pressure system centered over southern
Saskatchewan. The gusty west winds are expected to diminish after
sunset as we lose the surface heating induced vertical mixing.
Showers should diminish for most of the area overnight, with
lingering chances for a few rain showers near the Canadian border
and our western areas.

Tuesday brings increasing rain chances from west to east
throughout the day. A shortwave impulse within the circulation of
the low pressure system will provide enough moisture and
instability for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop. As this
rotates around the retreating upper low...scattered rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the area into
Wednesday. Most of the storms should occur in the afternoon and
evening when surface heating is at a maximum. With the relatively
low CAPE values, most of our precipitation should be in the form
of rain showers and any thunderstorm that does develop over the
next couple of days should not become severe.


.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Update: The going forecast is in excellent shape depicting
unsettled conditions under the influence of an upper trough. Only
tweak was an overall trend toward the latest model consensus.

Previous long term discussion:
Extended period will be dominated by a long-wave trof over the
western CONUS. Remnants of the low pressure currently over the
Cypress Hills lingers in southern Saskatchewan through the end of
the week. By the weekend another shortwave low dives into the
Pacific Northwest. Models differ greatly on the track of this low
early next week, for very low confidence at the end of the
forecast period.

Overall the pattern will lead to slightly above normal
temperatures with unsettled weather. Some weak shortwave ridging
as the low digs into the Pacific Northwest could result in
diminishing shower potential Thursday before southwest flow
develops deformation zone across central Montana on Friday. Ebert



Synopsis: The region will remain under the influence of a
large upper level trough of low pressure over the next several
days. This upper trough will make for unsettled conditions at
times, but by and large conditions will be vfr.

Cigs: Bkn mid level clouds.

Visibility: Unrestricted.

Winds: Gusty and southwesterly during the afternoon hours decreasing
to around 10kts around sunset.





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