Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 021451
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MADE AN UPDATE TO REFRESH THINGS CLOSER TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS. HAD
A REPORT OF SNOWFLAKES NEAR OPHEIM RECENTLY...SO ADDED MENTION OF AT
LEAST RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW FROM NORTHERN VALLEY TO DANIELS COUNTY
FOR TODAY. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINSHOWERS IN THE SW ZONES
FOR THIS MORNING (AS SOLID ECHOES OVER CENTRAL MONTANA MOVES SE).
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN. WILL
MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER FORT PECK LAKE TODAY AS TIGHT
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AS
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT BUT
NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA AND ITS INFLUENCE SPREADS OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UP STREAM THE FLOW PEAKS IN A RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN BENDS BACK OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY.
A WEAK MESOSCALE SHORTWAVE IS APPEARING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN
MULTIPLE MODELS BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE. BEST CHANCE CURRENTLY STANDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AS A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND
OF SHOWERS. BUT... PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND EAST OR WEST COULD SLIDE
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA OR BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE TIME THESE
FORECAST PERIODS ARRIVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MODEL CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY TO AVERAGE AS VARIOUS MODELS ARE LINING UP ON THICKNESS
HEIGHTS AND RMOP CLIMATE NUMBERS RISE. CURRENTLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE DRY AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THESE PERIODS AND PEAKING IN A
WEAK RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT NIGHT ONWARD... MODEL CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN AND
GOES BELOW AVERAGE AS MODEL SPREAD DOES NOT QUALIFY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY IN RMOP AND THICKNESS LINES BREAK APART. CHANGE DURING
FUTURE RUNS IN THE LARGE SCALE IS EXPECTED. BEST GUESS AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A WEAK FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS THE WEAK
RIDGE EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TO SEE FLOW RETURN TO ZONAL
PATTERN. POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED AND TWEAKED TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALTHOUGH A FEW MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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