Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 040148
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEAR
TERM OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND
MILD FOR THE NEAR TERM WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECAST THEREFORE NO UPDATE TONIGHT.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH ESSENTIALLY
FEW CLOUDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS...EXPECT THE CURRENT WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
DRIFT EAST AND SET UP A SOUTHWEST BREEZE FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH
MIXING FROM 700MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +5C...THIS
WILL FURTHER AID IN WARMING. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF AROUND 15F
TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND EVEN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
WARMER ON THURSDAY.

LATE THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXIT LATE THURSDAY COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SEMI UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS MAY
LEAD TO A RAIN SHOWER AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS SMALL...A
STORM MIGHT DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE EVENING.

SCT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LESS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...SO TRENDED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. MODELS DIFFER RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY
REGARDING THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON PREVIOUS TRENDS
OPTED TO LEAVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS IS.

HICKFORD

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
GOOD...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
AND ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OUT
LEADING UP TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY FORM OFF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WOULD DRAPE
DOWN INTO MONTANA LATE ON MONDAY. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. SOME OF
THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY CONVERGE
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL FLYING WEATHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AND JUST A FEW HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE STEADY FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 10-15 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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