Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 231456
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
856 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Sat...

MORNING 9AM UPDATE:
Changes to the forecast began with increased radar echos over the
Yellowstone Valley and Big Sheeps. Model returns are positioning
QPF/PoP farther south than radar shows so these numbers were moved
north over the next couple hours. However, with trends this is
expected diminish and wander east across the ND border as the day
progresses. Starting temperatures across the far northwest were
also cooler than anticipated by about 5 degrees where clouds have
cleared out. This is associated with a cold front moving in from
the northwest which is shooing rain showers out of the area as
well. However, downslope winds will have a moderating affect on
this airmass. So, only a couple degrees were dropped for the
daytime highs over Whitewater and northern Phillips county. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:
There are a series of short-wave troughs moving across the
Northern Pacific, Western Canada, and the prairie provinces today.
Additionally, there is an open medium wave over the Great Basin.
Northeast Montana will see limited effects from the open trough
that mostly undercuts our area. A broad cold frontal boundary will
force storms from Mexico to southeast Montana to Minnesota today.
The band in southeast Montana might clip our southeast zones with
some rain today. Then tonight one of the weak short-waves sends
another cold front through our area, mainly knocking overnight
lows down to freezing again.

An upper ridge moves in late tonight and Friday. Surface flow will
be southerly to again warm daytime temperatures for another mild
day.

Saturday the next Pacific storm brings moisture into the Northern
Rockies, but models show the system splitting around Northeast
Montana. Showers will be hit and miss, not widespread, and with
little QPF.

Overall, temperatures will run warmer than normal through the
period.

Templer


.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

A shortwave trough moves inland from the Pacific Saturday Night
and across Eastern Montana with a cold front on Sunday. At this
point, it looks like the chance for precipitation will be mainly
across the southern zones of the forecast area.

Shortwave ridge and surface high will allow for mainly dry weather
on Monday.

The next upper trough moves inland from the Pacific on Monday and
splits. The southern branch is forecasted to dig toward the
desert SW Monday Night and Tuesday. A moist southerly or southwest
flow aloft ahead of the trough is expected to extend into Montana
during this period with a good chance of rain for at least parts
of the forecast area for Monday Night, Tuesday and Tuesday Night.

The models have the northern branch trough moving into area
Tuesday Night and Wednesday shifting the moist flow from the
southern branch trough to the east. Expect drier weather to move
in from west to east.

An upper ridge will allow for dry weather Wednesday Night and
Thursday. Then, it looks like the next trough moves into the area
Thursday Night with a chance of rain. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR

SYNOPSIS: A storm system to the south of Montana will bring a mix
of mid and high clouds today. KGDV could see a brief rain shower
from the system this morning. The clouds will clear from west to
east this afternoon and evening as the system moves to the east
and high pressure builds into the area. Skies will be clear
tonight.

WIND: Light and variable this morning. Then switching to the west
to northwest at around 10 to 15 kts by afternoon. Winds will
become light and variable this evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Big Muddy Creek in Sheridan County continues to drop further
below flood stage. However, reports from law enforcement indicate
continued running water over some rural roadways. In addition,
there is concern with warmer temperatures that levels could rise
again. In order to gain additional confidence in the downward
trend, and to allow further time for running water to continue to
recede on local roadways, the flood warning was extended until
1245 pm today.

The Milk River at Dodson crested at 18.5 feet overnight and is
slowly diminishing to around 17.9 feet this morning. Generally
speaking, the higher water will continue to move downstream
through the remainder of this week and will need further
monitoring into next week.
Forrester/Mickelson


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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