Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
231 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

WV imagery shows well defined closed low centered over the Texas
Panhandle, with the northwest part of the upper low over our CWA. At
the surface high pressure is beginning to build into eastern COlorado
with surface low pressure is now over the Texas Panhandle moving into
western Oklahoma.

This afternoon-Tonight: Upper low will continue to transition
eastward and occlusion currently associated with ongoing precip band
will begin to diminish in coverage and slide northeast. A lobe of
mid level vorticity on the NW extent of upper low center is shown to
rotate towards our eastern CWA and additional rain (or rain/snow)
development will be possible towards north central Kansas. High
resolution guidance (HRRR/ARW/NMM) are showing this with light precip
signal (ending by 12Z). Overall moisture will be decreasing as
stable drier air filters in from the west, so other than lingering
some slight chance PoPs in our far east after 06Z I have most precip
ending this evening.

Precip type continues to be problematic as area of lower Tw in the
lower levels lingers near the main precip band. Areas of eastern
Colorado have received light accumulations on grassy surfaces, but
trend has been for this roads to stay mainly wet (based on web
cams). Area of precip shift away from this cooler region, so
opportunity for accumulating snow may be limited. I can`t rule out
light slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces in NW Kansas or SW
Nebraska before all is said an done.

Some models had been showing possible fog development and with
surface high pressure building in this is possible. At the same time
much drier air will be filtering into the boundary layer, and other
than our far east where surface Tds may hold up I am not confident
about fog formation.  Majority of guidance does not show this, so I
kept mention out. Will be something to keep an eye on.

Temperatures tonight should drop well below freezing in our west
with clearing skies and cooler/drier air mass (lower 20s eastern
CO). Our east is less certain, as low clouds and possible precip
could limit diurnal cooling and lows may remain in upper 30s.

Saturday: Shortwave ridging will be in place, while surface high
pressure begins to slide east. There will be a slight moderation of
the air mass as lee trough begins to redevelop. We will likely end
up near seasonal normals in the upper 50s/lower 60s with mostly
sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

For the extended...nice dry evening on tap for the region as high
pressure continues to trek eastward over the Central Plains. Going
into Sunday though...the approach of a quick moving shortwave will
be the start of another round precipitation for the region. Latest
model guidance does shift this system south of the CWA during the
day and out of the area by nightfall.

H5 ridge begins to crest over the region behind exiting shortwave
Sunday night into Monday for a round of dry wx. The next system on
its heels looks to be the better system for widespread precipitation
accum for the Tri State region. The cutoff upper low travels SE off
the Rockies setting up over New Mexico due to ridge blocking in the
Southern Plains for Tuesday before shifting eastward as a strong
ridge pushes it towards the Mississippi Valley. Inverted surface
trough sets up into eastern Colorado on Tuesday to help in funneling
moisture into the region. Some instability from late afternoon/early
evening an added mention of an isolated thunderstorm
will accompany any rainfall. Colder air on the backside of the
system will allow for a change over to snow showers mainly for the
western third of the CWA. Overall QPF potential will put the area
close to seeing an inch area-wide w/ higher amts eastern due to the
movement of the system into Thursday.

Going into Friday...little break in the expected precip as another
shortwave moves into the area behind exiting midweek low. Ridging
between the two systems will put main focus for precip in western
zones at this time...with some rw/sw mix early in the day.

For temps...looking for above normal conditions thru the forecast
period with highs ranging from the mid 50s thru the mid
60s...warmest day on Monday. Overnight lows will range in 30s mostly
with some spot locales in the east near 40F.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Rain possibly mixed with snow at times, and a few thunderstorms
will continue to move across NW Kansas and SW Nebraska this
afternoon before decreasing in coverage this evening/late tonight.
Confidence was not high enough to include mention of thunder at
either TAF site as current trends have been for this activity to
remain west of both terminals (can`t rule it out completely
though). IF Cigs and occasionally IFR vis have occurred at both
terminals and will remain possible through the middle of the
afternoon. A few models are showing the potential for MVFR
conditions to linger through Saturday morning. Currently model
consensus is VFR conditions returning late this evening, and this
was favored for this TAF update.

Strongest winds will remain in the afternoon, with northerly
winds decreasing below 12kt by the later part of the evening as
the main surface low pressure area shifts south and east of the




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