Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Issued at 757 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Based on current observations and more recent guidance, decreased
precipitation chances for the tonight period. Shifted rain chances
from our central CWA to the western half tonight, to line up
better with the location of a shortwave trough. Additionally, no
hazardous weather is expected tonight.

Tomorrow morning, we are expecting rain chances to ramp up after


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The southwest flow aloft ahead of the deep western U.S. trough
will become more southerly as the pattern progresses slowly
eastward through Saturday. Fast moving short wave troughs embedded
in the upper flow will lift out across the forecast area early
this evening and again on Saturday evening.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon and evening in the somewhat more moist and
unstable airmass in place across northwest Kansas and southwest
Nebraska on the east side of a cold front and dryline that has
positioned itself across the forecast area this afternoon.
Southerly winds ahead of the boundary are gusting to over 40 mph
this afternoon and are expected to diminish somewhat once the
night time inversion sets up. Large hail and damaging winds are
possible with a few of the stronger storms that are expected to
develop.  Northeasterly winds and a dryer airmass are present on
the back side of the boundary over northeast Colorado and the
Nebraska panhandle region where it is expected to remain mostly
dry and cooler.

The persistent southerly flow at the surface and aloft will bring
additional Gulf moisture into the region tonight through
Saturday. With the addition of moisture and the short wave troughs
expected to lift out across the region ahead of the main upper
trough, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread
through the day on Saturday and into Saturday evening. With the
position of the surface features expected to change little, many
of the showers and thunderstorms could train across the same
portion of the forecast area and lead to an increased risk of
flash flooding by late Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

For the extended period...the combination of the upper low over the
Rockies and the frontal boundary over the western Plains will
persist over the area...albeit with a slow trend eastward into
Monday as the upper system works off into the Plains region. As a
result...the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall...from
rw/trw...will persist from Saturday night right into next Monday.

For precip totals...the area could see a large range from 0.60" to
almost 2.00" for the Saturday night thru Monday timeframe. The
highest potential totals remain along central and eastern zones due
to proximity and positioning to the surface front. Some localized
amts over the aforementioned are possible...all of which keeps a
flash flooding/flooding threat in the forefront.

By Monday night as the upper system lifts north of the area...there
will be some wrap-around moisture affecting northern zones but
clearing out going into Tuesday. From Tuesday onward into next
Friday...models do keep mainly high pressure for the area w/ a few
weak shortwaves that do drop across portions of the region.
Scattered light rainfall/trw is possible.

For temps...with expected clouds/precip for the first portion of the or below normal temps will occur for all
locales...with near normal numbers returning for the latter portion
of the extended as high pressure returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Sub VFR conditions could occur Saturday as isolated showers and
thunderstorms develop over our area. Confidence on timing these
showers and storms is low, so left vicinity showers for the
extended time frame. Main concern for aviators overnight will be
strong LLWS at both the GLD and MCK terminals. Both sites could
see gusts up to 45 knots.




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