Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
709 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Issued at 703 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Made adjustment to timing of PoPs, decrease in coverage of
thunder mention, and removed severe mention from HWO. Showers are
trending slightly faster, and instability is significantly lowered
as front remains well south of our CWA. There are some isolated
showers behind the main precip area, but with decreasing mid
level lapse rates this activity should diminish after sunset.
Timing of main area of precip associated with shortwave should be
out of our CWA by midnight.

UPDATE Issued at 254 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Am becoming increasingly doubtful of severe weather developing
over the southwest portion of the Tri-State Area this afternoon.
Wave clouds on visible satellite continue to be prevalent, while
the cumulus field continues to remain further south by the front.
Can`t completely rule out the possibility of severe weather along
the far southern edge over the forecast area, but am not very
confident it will occur given the front should remain to the


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough axis over the Northern
Plains extending southwest to the Central Rockies.  Satellite
imagery shows a defined line of clouds accompanying the trough axis
east with colder cloud tops at the base of the trough.  Ahead of the
trough axis wave clouds indicated a stable environment.  Latest
radar imagery showed a line of showers accompanying the trough axis
east. On the south end of the line a cluster of storms had developed
at the base of the trough axis.  At the surface the cold front was
near the KS/OK border arcing northwest to near Denver.

Am expecting this cluster to be the focus for attention this
afternoon for the potential of strong to severe storms as the
cluster moves southeast.  The better chance for severe weather will
be south of Cheyenne and Greeley/Wichita counties near the front
where the higher instability will be.  Main hazard with this cluster
will be large hail up to ping-pong ball size if severe storms
develop. Have limited optimism due to CAPE of 1000j/kg or less.
However effective deep layer shear is 55kts by early evening, so if
an updraft can avoid being sheared apart large hail will be very
likely.  DCAPE values and HRRR ensemble model runs both show a low
probability of severe wind gusts.

Tonight the threat for severe weather will be southeast of the
forecast area, if any is still ongoing.  There may be some lingering
storm activity ahead of the approaching trough axis. Cloud cover
will exit ahead of the trough axis.  Behind the trough axis a
surface high will move through.

Sunday will be warmer as northwest winds bring in WAA.  Winds will
be light as a 850mb ridge moves through.  A clear sky is expected
due to dry northwest flow overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Sunday night: Upper level ridge will build aloft bringing drier
conditions to the area. Temperatures will be near to slightly below

Monday-Tuesday: Cold front moves into the area during the day Monday
and becomes stalled with a northwest to southeast orientation across
the CWA. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon into Monday night for areas southwest of the front. On
Tuesday, a shortwave trough pushes into the area from the northwest
helping to provide extra lift and giving most of the area a chance
of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures should be close to normal.

Wednesday-Thursday: Models still do not have very good agreement for
this period. GFS and ECMWF have very little continuity between them.
Tended to lean towards the GFS for this time frame. Area will see a
chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. 12Z
GFS soundings indicate that some of these storms could be strong or

Friday-Saturday: This period could remain wet and/or stormy as both
the GFS and ECMWF are advertising the possibility of a negatively
tilted trough or closed low approaching the CWA from the southwest.
GFS solution shows high CAPE values (~2200 J/kg) but low 0-6km shear
(~12 kt). One note, GFS is also showing PWAT values around 1.25 in.
which could result in some heavy rain through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions should continue at KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Gusty winds and showers end this evening, with winds
remaining below 12kt until sunrise Sunday. I couldn`t rule out of
a thunderstorm this evening at KGLD, but current radar trends
lower confidence and showers were favored in TAFs. KMCK has less
of a chance for showers, but a few could move within the vicinity
of the terminal early in the TAF period.




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