Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251410
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
710 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MUCH
WARMER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA FROM YESTERDAY. LATEST UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE SHOWS A VERY STRONG INVERSION JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. EVEN WITH SOME MIXING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...CAN SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAT
WHAT WAS FORECAST. THEREFORE HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND THEN
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST FA THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE AND LIKELY
POPS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE STARTS DECREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE AND THEN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT.  SNOW SHOULD END BY 06Z SATURDAY ACROSS MOST
AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN FA.  TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.  LOWEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.  WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15 TO UNDER 25KTS.  WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST FA.  FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE AND MENTION CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITH
DRY MID LEVELS THIS EVENING.  THIS CREATES SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FORCING IS LACKING OTHER THAN
IN YUMA COUNTY WHERE SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE
COLUMN FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S WITH
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 SATURDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PINCH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID
WEEK. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SNOW
FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. BITTERLY COLD
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY. THE COLDEST
DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK TODAY AND THEN
LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS STRATUS AND FOG MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. LATER TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR AT
BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS


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