Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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099
FXUS63 KGRR 281136
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
736 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

A few showers are possible this afternoon then fair and dry
weather will rule over the weekend as high pressure from Canada
dominates the weather into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Only forecast issue in the near term is for POPs today as upper
low passes through and steepening lapse rates could touch off a
few showers and storms from late morning through the afternoon.

The mesoscale models show scattered showers developing this
morning across northern Lower Michigan and drifting southwest
through the afternoon. So the area of POPs for today has been
expanded from the eastern zones into the central and western
forecast area.

The upper low dives southeast with heights rebounding this evening
and showers should also die off quickly due to this and the loss
of diurnal instability. The rest of the forecast period looks dry
and comfortable as upper heights rise and Canadian surface high
builds into the central Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure will continue to dominate the wx pattern Sunday night
and for the early to middle portion of next week bringing fair wx
with seasonable temps.

A slow moving frontal boundary will bring potential for a few
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Wednesday night into
early Thursday. However moisture with this system looks quite
limited and significant rainfall is not anticipated.

Another ridge of high pressure will build in behind that system and
bring fair wx Friday into next weekend. Temperatures will continue
to average rather close to normal through the long range fcst
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon. Some
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but
the chances are low enough to leave out of the forecast for now.

Northeast winds will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon then
decrease below 10 knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Winds and waves will increase today. Big and Little Sable points
will once again see waves near 4 feet in northerly flow as will
the nearshore waters near and south of South Haven.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

One to two inches of rain fell across a fair portion of Central
Michigan (along the US-10 and M-20 corridors) Wed and Wed night.
Given the mostly dry conditions over the last two or three weeks,
this rain was effectively captured by the soil and river rises
will be limited. The chance for substantial rainfall over the next
week is very low.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...Ostuno



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