Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 200244
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1044 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES
ALREADY EXCEEDING FORECAST VALUES AT ROCKLAND... WISCASSET... AND
PORTSMOUTH. HOWEVER... THIS COLD SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO RISING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SANFORD HAS NOTICEABLY
ALREADY FALLEN TO 34 DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE FREEZING
MARK AGAIN TONIGHT... BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED AN ISOLATED COLD SPOT
AND THUS NO ADVISORY OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. COULD SEE SOME
FOG FORMING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND INSERT
PATCHY FROST WORDING IN FOR AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THEIR WAY UP AND ALREADY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY AREAS FROM REACHING FREEZING
THAT DID NOT ALREADY HAVE A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT FROST TO BE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COOLING AS WELL.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT
WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS... HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST
NIGHT... SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON... SO 70
DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS... WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE
60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE
MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT
WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES... SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING
SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS
WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



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