Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 041108
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
308 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST IS NOW
BUILDING INLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A WARMING TREND
AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOG IMAGERY INDICATING
SOME PATCHY STRATO-CUMULUS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
MORNING...BUT ANY FOG WHICH DOES FORM WILL RAPIDLY BURN OFF JUST
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN
A NOTICABLE WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 DEG F ABOVE YDAY.

06Z WRF IS INDICATING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH INLAND INTO THE
PAC NW BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL
CA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN LOWERING DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND RISES IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER CA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN BY NEXT TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN OVER CA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SHORTWAVES TO
BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR DAY 8 (NEXT WEDNESDAY) IN THE GRIDS AS
A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR VIS FOR KMCE AND KMER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
KMCE MAY FALL TO LIFR VIS TEMPORARILY FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-04       84:1929     49:1951     55:1991     30:1966
KFAT 03-05       84:1929     46:1981     57:1890     31:1971
KFAT 03-06       86:1899     48:1952     54:2011     31:1971

KBFL 03-04       88:1929     50:1919     64:1987     28:1907
KBFL 03-05       86:1929     50:1981     58:1975     30:1923
KBFL 03-06       82:1972     51:1958     57:1972     30:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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