Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 262212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
312 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

Scattered showers, and possibly an embedded thunderstorm or two,
will be possible this afternoon and evening over the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada. A gradual warming trend for the
area continues through the end of this week, until another weak
system moves in on Saturday increasing the chances for
precipitation...especially over the higher elevations of the
Sierra. Beginning Monday...high pressure will reduce the chances
for precipitation across the Sierras.


Showers and thunderstorms yet to develop over the Sierras today,
however hi res near term models still indicate isolated to
scattered development. chances for precipitation were cut back
some late today and this evening considering current trends. Wind
profile is conducive for slow moving and/or training storms, like
yesterday afternoon/evening, and could produce heavy rainfall and
ponding of water along roadways across the higher elevations.

Considering today`s wet bias in the models, development tomorrow
again may underachieve. Guidance increases the chance of
precipitation more so on Saturday, when an upper
low/trough/disturbance may enhance coverage and provide better
forcing. Although the upper low will shift to the east gradually
into Sunday, showers and storms will remain possible across the

Warming trend will continue across the region as heights build
behind the upper low, which may stall across southwestern Arizona
early next week. Mid to upper 90s will be possible across much of
the valley into the end of the forecast. Chance for showers and
thunderstorms will decrease even across the Sierras as the ridge
builds into Wednesday.


Areas of MVFR with possible IFR with any isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the Sierras/Tehachapis this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in the
central CA interior for the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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