Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 311031
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL
CA. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. BY MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. A RELATIVELY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...EDGING DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JULY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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