Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 292311
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
311 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...NOW MAINLY JUST
OVER TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES. PATCHES OF TULE FOG LINGERED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAILING NOW. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...A REPEAT OF THE
DENSE FOG LOOKS VERY LIKELY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG BEGINNING AROUND 04Z WHICH IS ABOUT THE TIME AS LAST NIGHT.
WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SJV FROM 04Z-20Z FRIDAY...
/8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY/.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
BENEATH THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MEASURED
AT A COUPLE AUTOMATED GAUGES. WEB CAMS OVER THE SIERRA ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH BRIEF RAIN SHAFTS VISIBLE. THE BASE OF
THE ELONGATED TROUGH IS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA
AND BRING A CHANCE TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS WELL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PACNW WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
ON MONDAY THEN IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SO AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND TULE FOG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SJV. THE FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BREAK AND IF THICK
ENOUGH...COULD JUST LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LESS CERTAIN FOR THE SJV.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BECOMING AREAS
IFR WITH LOCAL VLIFR IN FOG FROM 06Z-20Z THURSDAY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 29 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-29       73:1960     43:2002     55:1911     24:1902
KFAT 01-30       74:1984     41:1923     56:1911     25:1946
KFAT 01-31       75:1984     39:1969     55:1963     26:1949

KBFL 01-29       74:1986     42:2002     54:1986     27:1903
KBFL 01-30       77:1911     44:1951     60:1911     23:1902
KBFL 01-31       82:1984     45:1969     57:1963     23:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST FRIDAY
CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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