Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 162215
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
215 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain dry weather across the
area through Tuesday although low clouds will continue over the
San Joaquin Valley. Active weather with valley rain and mountain
snow will return on Wednesday and continue through next weekend.
.DISCUSSION...Upper ridge building inland into the PAC NW and
Norcal is providing our area with a dry airmass today. This
feature has also interacted with an upper low over northwestern
Mexico to produce some locally gusty northeast winds near the
southern Sierra crest this morning. Meanwhile an inversion
persists over the lower elevations which has maintained a stratus
deck over the San Joaquin Valley and lower sierra foothills
although visible imagery is indicating some breaks in the low
cloud deck taking place. Projected soundings are indicating the
inversion will remain in place tonight through Tuesday as the
upper ridge continues to push inland so expect the stratus deck to
refill over the valley tonight then will likely see another round
of slow clearing on Tuesday afternoon. The inversion is progged to
break on Tuesday Night as an upper trough approaches CA. This will
mix out the atmosphere and dissipate the stratus deck, but also
bring increasing moisture and dynamics into our area on Wednesday
and provide for a chance of precipitation from Fresno County
northward by Wednesday afternoon.
The WRF has been advertising the trough to push across our CWFA
on Wednesday Night through Thursday morning and provide our area
with a period of rain and higher elevation snow. Snow levels are
progged to range from 7000 to 8000 feet Wednesday evening lowering
to 4000 to 5000 feet by Thursday afternoon when the precipitation
turns to showers in a colder post-frontal airmass.
The medium range models are in fairly good agreement with two
additional systems moving through our area behind the midweek
storm. One is progged to move through on Friday followed by
another system by late Sunday or early Monday. These storms are
expected to provide our area with healthy doses of precipitation
and are progged to be colder with snow levels expected to be
between 2000 and 4000 feet. Travel over the passes in Kern County
and over the southern Sierra foothills will likely be adversely
impacted next weekend as a result.
.AVIATION...MVFR cigs will persist across the terminals for at
least the next 24 hours. Medium confidence. VFR conditions will
prevail at locations outside the San Joaquin Valley and foothill
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.