Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 230604
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 959 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION...WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED THIS EVENING -- AND PRIMARILY TO INCREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST
THAT A LOWER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS, AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND,
AND POSITIVE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AROUND 06Z...WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH 12Z. OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST WAS
INCREASED BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID- LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN BY 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD FOCUS HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS...HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND MAINLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09-12Z.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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