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000
FXUS64 KHUN 020013
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS MISSOURI THROUGH LITTLE ROCK AND THEN
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN WAS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
RAIN/ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTH ALABAMA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS UNTIL AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING THE COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. THE HRRR AND
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING THAT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION/DRYING WILL TAKE OVER AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH QUICKLY FALLING
TEMPS. A WEAK SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY AROUND 09Z. WILL STILL KEEP IN A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z FOR THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. AM EXPECTING LITTLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW DUE TO
WARM SOIL TEMPS AND SHORT DURATION OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TEMP FORECAST FOR MONDAY...AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TEMP CHANGE DURING THE DAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES DURING THIS SAME
TIME PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS NOW KEEP THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING ON THE SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW INITIATED
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS MODEL TRENDING.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. WILL AT LEAST INITIATE A RAIN-SNOW
MIXTURE FOR MY TENNESSEE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO THE GFS
TEMP SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY. WANT TO SEE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
LOWERING TEMPS MUCH MORE FOR THURSDAY. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BY 00Z SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE COMPROMISED INVOLVING TEMPS...AS
THE GFS MODEL IS WARMER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL TO ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. THE MODELS SHIFT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY...AND WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT MSL BY 02/01Z AND HSV BY 03Z. PREFRONTAL LINE OF MOD/HVY
SHRA WILL SHIFT EWD BRINGING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER...ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBY. WINDS
WILL VEER SHARPLY TO WNW IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN
THE 12G20 KT RANGE. BKN STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO ARND 2500
FT...BUT MAY FALL ONCE AGAIN BTWN 09-15Z AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE PSBL DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND HAVE ADDED -SHSN IN A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 10-14Z. CONDS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY EARLY/MID AFTN...WITH STRATUS SLOWLY
SCATTERING AND WINDS VEERING TO NNW AND DIMINISHING TO ARND 7 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

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