Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 111656 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1036 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS FROM MODELS THAT THIS WILL PREVENT THE WARM
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN. THE END RESULT
OF THIS WILL BE THAT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED
NEAR THE AL/TN LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES. FURTHER
SOUTH...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NEAR
THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN THE 39 TO 44 DEGREE RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CIGS OF ~120AGL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND
VRBL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW AT 8-12KT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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