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000
FXUS64 KHUN 191112 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
612 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST FEW 88-D IMAGES CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WERE
NOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING. SKIES WERE
STILL GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 50S IN
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE CURRENT TRENDING ALONG WITH MODEL FORECASTS FOR TODAY INDICATE
THAT SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY AND EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 00Z
TONIGHT... WHICH SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN THE WESTERN CLOUD
PERIPHERY TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STAY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTER.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY 00Z MONDAY...AND WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH ARKANSAS AND INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS/SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR INVOLVING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY UPPED PRECIP CHANCES
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
GUIDANCE INVOLVING TEMPS. WILL FOLLOW ALONG MORE WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL TIMING INVOLVING THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIP MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH MORE PACIFIC AIR AND A ZONAL
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TOWARD THE WARMER GFS TEMPS
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND INTO
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS INDICATING
MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY...AND HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF
THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 19/14Z, WITH N/NE WINDS
GUSTING TO ARND 20KTS THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT ERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.