Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 250822
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TODAY. INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEADING
TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE
START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND
SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
SATURDAY AND GOOD DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST...BUT AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG IS PROGGED
TO NOSE INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR A THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE...IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PRIMARILY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...SO WILL LIMIT POPS PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR...BOTH
0-3 KM AND 0-1 KM...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SEASONABLY STRONG 925-850 MB
JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE PROLONGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. WITH PW VALUES RUNNING IN THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
RANGE...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
ASSUMING WE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE...GOOD SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE PRESENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL
BE USHERED INTO THE FA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DECENT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM EACH DAY AFTER TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE TO COOLEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. IFR RIVER FOG WILL BE LIKELY AT KLUK
THIS MORNING. KILN/KLCK MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.
ALL FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SCT FAIR WEATHER CU
WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...LATTO






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.