Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 231131
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
631 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
Periods of rain can be expected today as an upper level low
pressure system moves northeast into the Mid Atlantic States.
Weak high pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area
for Tuesday. A chance of precipitation will return for the second
half of the week as a colder airmass settles into the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain has been slowly filling in as it rotates westward across our
area this morning. Expect this trend to continue through the
morning hours as the upper level low currently over the
southeastern United States begins to lift northeast into the Mid
Atlantic States. As the low starts to pull off to the east, expect
to see a decreasing chance of precipitation from the west through
this afternoon. Between the clouds, precipitation and
northeasterly low level flow, do not expect much in the way of
temperature recovery today with highs ranging from the mid 40s
northwest to the lower 50s across the southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering precipitation this evening should taper off from
west to east as the upper level low moves off the East Coast. Mid
level ridging will then shift quickly east across the Upper Ohio
Valley through the day on Tuesday. This will lead to dry
conditions with highs in the mid to upper 40s. An upper level low
will lift northeast into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ahead of this, a strengthening low level jet will
rotate up across our region later Tuesday night and into the day
on Wednesday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but this may be enough
to produce a few light rain showers through the day on Wednesday.
It looks like we could have enough mixing through the day on
Wednesday to allow for some breezy winds with some gusts in the
30-35 mph range possible. Good WAA will also help temperatures
push up into the 50s for highs on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term will open up with a longwave trough axis across the
United States bringing a return to more seasonal weather for the
area. Thursday morning a cold front will be pushing east of the
region with temperatures falling into the mid 30s. 850 mb
temperatures will also take a tumble as strong cold air advection
pushes 850 temperatures down from 8 degrees C to 6 degrees C below
zero. During the day Thursday as the low levels begin to cool lapse
rates will steepen. As a result snow showers will develop. The main
question for Thursday is will it be cool enough for all snow.
Looking at the latest forecast soundings on the GFS the answer
appears to be yes. Any precip Thursday morning will likely start off
as rain and then transition over to all snow Thursday morning around
day break as colder air rushes in.
On Friday ridging will continue to build across the western United
states allowing the longwave trough over the eastern Untied States
to amplify. Another piece of energy will then dive south Friday
helping to keep a low end chance of snow in the forecast. On
Saturday another reinforcing piece of energy will dive south helping
to push even slightly colder 850 mb temperatures across the area.
This trend will continue into Sunday as 850 mb temperatures lower to
around 14 degrees C below zero. This means that high and low
temperatures will slowly fall everyday in the extended period. Highs
in the upper 30s Thursday will be replaced with highs in the lower
30s by Sunday. Likewise low temperatures in the mid 30s Thursday
morning will fall to around 20 degrees by Sunday morning.
On Monday another upper level low will dive south across south
western Canada with the upper level low that was over the forecast
area exiting to the east. This will lead to a brief break in
precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday.
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level low is currently starting to pull northeast this
morning with a broad shield of rain starting to pivot. As the low
has pulled closer to the TAF sites the pressure gradient has begun
to tighten allowing winds to also strengthen. GFS and NAM
soundings both indicate widespread IFR cigs this morning and
continue them through the afternoon. Latest high res guidance
shows IFR cigs slowly rising this afternoon to low end MVFR with
the greatest chance of continued IFR at KDAY. Also this afternoon
the upper level low and corresponding surface low will pull north
and east or away from the TAF sites. As this happens winds will
slowly weaken along with precipitation coming to an end. Tuesday
morning winds will turn light across the area with the low levels
remaining saturated. Dry air will also work into the area in the
mid and upper levels. As this happens the potential for fog will
also rise. As of now it looks like ceilings will continue to lower
Tuesday morning and possibly start to restrict visibilities. For
now have left the mention of fog out of TAFs but future TAF
packages will have to take a look at this.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.