Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 291609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SLOT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO SW OHIO WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE FA. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED
THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES HAVE
NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED 8H AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
LED TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE...INITIAL PCPN TYPE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WAS FREEZING
RAIN. THIS INITIAL BAND OF PCPN IS MOVING EAST AND THE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING UP.

ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AHD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. HAVE DROPPED COUNTIES ACRS
THE WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
30S AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED A LITTLE LAG FOR ROAD
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE SCIOTO VLY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO WORK INTO THE FA RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SNOW OFF OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
UNDER AN INCH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA.  A LARGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS
DEEPER/SHARPER AND THUS SLOWER. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS
GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THIS SNOW. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ERROR AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TO BUMP POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM
EARLIER FORECAST. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM THIS ALTHOUGH IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO THINK ABOUT SPECIFICS
IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS.

MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING
ON SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKY COVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EVEN COLDER PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS SEEMED TOO FAST
AND SO IGNORED IT. THUS BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING
IN THE COLUMBUS AREA...SO SOME LIGHT ICING CAN BE EXPECTED THERE.
VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TO START. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY WHILE SLOWLY VEERING. APPEARS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE IN JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP
CEILINGS TO MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH
THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GUSTY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FURTHER
AND A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ABOVE 2000 FT TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...






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