Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 140552
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1252 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to move east, further away from the
area overnight. High pressure will then build into the area for
Thursday. Another cold front will then cross the area Friday
evening into Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Strong wind gusts are continuing with a few locations remaining
around advisory criteria. The winds will be gradually decreasing
as low pressure moves further away from the area and the
pressure gradient starts to relax.

Radar shows a band of light echoes still passing across far
northern counties, and those locations could still see a mix of
very light snow or a mix of rain and snow for the next few
hours.

Temperatures are taking a bit longer to fall, so have bumped up
readings, although cold air advection should still see them fall
close to previous low temperature forecast by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
During the day Thursday more cold air will filter into the
region with 850 mb temperatures falling towards 10 degrees C
below zero. High pressure will move in for the afternoon with
the pressure gradient slowly relaxing. This working with clouds
remaining across the region will keep high temperatures around
or below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface low pressure to track through the northern Great Lakes
Friday. Best precipitation to stay to ILN/s north closer to the
surface wave. Will carry low chance pop of snow showers north
Friday/Friday night. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, with highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s north to the
mid 30s south.

Upper level flow backs westerly with ridge building into the region.
Southerly low level flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming
to near normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the mid 30s
north to the mid 40s south.

Mid level flow backs southwesterly with moisture spreading back into
the area early next week. Model solutions differ on timing and
strength. Due to model solution spread, confidence decreases. Will
use a blended approach with chance pops spreading in Sunday. The
p-type will change over to rain in the warm air advection and then
mix with snow in the north prior to ending Monday. This pcpn event
looks to be progressive with pcpn ending early Monday. Sundays
temperatures to run a little above normal with highs from 40 to 45.
Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Mondays
highs ranging from the the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.

With a mid level trof across the Great Lakes and northwest flow
over the area, will limit pops to low chance over the far north
Tuesday. Based on thermal profiles, will allow for a mix of rain and
snow. Surface high pressure to then offer dry weather at mid week.
Temperatures close to normal next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs
from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
West winds gusting to around 30 kt at the beginning of the
period will gradually start to decrease with gusts diminishing
towards 12Z. Winds will continue to decrease to less than 10 kt
and veer to the northwest with some locations becoming north.
Winds will become light and variable late in the TAF period as
high pressure builds in.

Cincinnati terminals are starting out VFR, but expect MVFR
ceilings to develop into that area early. Elsewhere MVFR
ceilings will prevail. Ceilings will remain below 2000 ft for
the Columbus terminals and will likely lower to that at KDAY.
Those locations should lift back above 2000 ft after 12Z. Area
wide, MVFR ceilings will persist into midday and likely into the
afternoon before eroding. Once this occurs, VFR conditions will
remain through the end of the TAF period with just mid to high
clouds.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible Sunday into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...


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