Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 051040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A TIGHT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS AN ALMOST STRATIFORM RAIN JUST NE
OF CWA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ORIENT ITSELF MORE W-E NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SKIMMING SW CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE OUT OF CWA BY LATE MORNING.
THE W-E BAND OF SHOWERS N OF I-70 WILL WEAKEN AS AFTERNOON
APPROACHES DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT RAPIDLY EXITING
THE REGION. AS IT DOES WEAKEN...IT WILL BE PIVOTING FROM A W-E
ORIENTATION TO A SW-NE ONE THAT RUNS THROUGH RICHMOND AND CELINA.

ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF A LIGHT NATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUTED IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SATURDAY. THE DOWNWARD
MOTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE MAY
OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY BUT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST ATTM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AM NOT SOLD ON THE FRI PM PRECIP
AS THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDING IN.
SATURDAY RAIN IS BEING SHOWN AS MUCH MORE ROBUST WHEN LOOKING AT
SEVERAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA LATE IN
THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES AND THE AREA OF RAIN
MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM CWA WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY
BEHIND IT.

KEEPING A GENERALLY COOL FORECAST WITH A DECENT BUMP IN HIGH
TEMPS EACH DAY...LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

DID NOT SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY CONTAINING THUNDER WITH DEEP
FORCING EXITING THE AREA. SATURDAY THE THUNDER WAS ALSO KEPT OUT
AS THE MEAN H5 RIDGE WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONT STALLED OUT IN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD POPS UP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.

WAA OVER THE FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY...PUSHING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER TOP OF THE REGION. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE TAFS...THERE IS A MULTITUDE OF CIGS
HEIGHTS...RANGING FROM UNLIMITED SCATTERED CLOUDS TO IFR.

EXPECT ANY CLEAR SPOT TO FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OF THE DAY
COMMENCES. THE CIGS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. CIGS WILL
RISE TO VFR BY AFTN. BY THEN THERE COULD BE A FEW SHRA AROUND AS
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SPIRAL PASSES THRU THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...SITES



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