Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251804
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
204 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be observed in the hot and humid
air mass which is in place, ahead of cold front which will move
through the region this afternoon. This front will stall out
across Kentucky, bringing a continued threat for storms across
southern portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. The front
is expected to lift north as warm front, as a wave of low pressure
tracks through the Great Lakes late in the week. This will bring
the threat for widespread thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mesoscale boundary from AM decaying convection across Indiana has progressed
south and east through the northwestern half of the FA early this
afternoon. Behind this boundary, dewpoints have dropped into the
upper 60s and lower 70s and appears to have stunted potential
convective activity for this afternoon. While some isolated
development is possible along the front itself as it pushes SE
through the evening, expect coverage to be limited.

Along and south of the aforementioned mesoscale boundary,
showers and storms have developed in a very warm and humid
environment. This activity and will push east through the
afternoon hours before slowly tapering off early this evening.
While an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, the
main threat will be brief heavy downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface cold front to push south of the Ohio river and stall out
south of the Ohio river tonight. Storms will end from the north
across all but the far south overnight. Temperatures will be a
little cooler with lows from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s
south.

Surface cold front to stall out east-west just south of the Ohio
river at the south end of the mid level westerlies. This front
will be the focus for diurnal storm development Tuesday. Will
mention this potential along and south of the Ohio river. Further
north, drier air should inhibit thunderstorm development. Highs on
Tuesday will be slightly cooler and generally in the mid and upper
80s.

Weak surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes with a
continued threat of showers and thunderstorms along and south of
the Ohio river Wednesday. Have limited mention to slight chance.
Generally expect highs in the upper 80s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Boundary will lift north as a warm front late Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will allow precipitable water values to
increase northward, placing the CWA back in a very moist
environment for Thursday.

Models show a shortwave approaching late Thursday or Thursday night.
Timing is still somewhat in question, but there is decent consensus
on the track which will bring it across the Ohio Valley. Therefore,
begin to increase pops for Thursday afternoon and will continue
chance pops into Thursday night for possible influence from
shortwave.

Additional shortwaves may affect the Ohio Valley Friday through
Saturday. Details associated with the shortwaves (such as
track/timing/strength) are in question and will need to be resolved
with time. But the potential for shortwaves combined with a warm
moist air mass means that chance pops for convection will continue
through at least Saturday. Eventually, a cold front may move through
and this could occur late Saturday into Sunday but confidence is low
on the timing of the frontal passage.

Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above
average values through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and storms have fired along and downstream of a slowly-
moving boundary parallel to and just east of the I-71 corridor in
Ohio. This boundary will slowly drift S/E thru the afternoon,
allowing the northern terminals of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK to remain
dry thru 00z Tuesday.

A cold front stretching from MI southwestward through southern IL
will move S/E thru the evening hours, allowing for winds to turn
more northwesterly for the overnight period. Winds will remain
very light overnight, allowing for the possibility of BR/MVFR
VSBYs to develop once again for southern sites of KCVG, KLUK, and
KILN, especially as front may be a bit slower to usher in drier
air for these sites.

VFR conditions are expected after 12z Tuesday as the front stalls
south of the terminals. There exists a little uncertainty as to
how far south the front will progress before stalling. This will
dictate where SHRA/TS development will be possible on Tuesday
afternoon, but still expect coverage to be concentrated south of
southern terminals of KCVG and KLUK.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ055-056-
     063>065-070>074-078>082-088.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...KC



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