Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 021510
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1110 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE IN ROADS
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PER LATEST NAM AND HRRR...IT
APPEARS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING TO AFFECT OUR REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROF/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEVELOP
SCATTERED CONVECTION...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA.
FLOODING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION AND SPEED OF THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS...ISOLATED SEVERE...WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IF WE CAN
REALIZE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE LOW END MODERATE CATEGORY.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS STRONG NW FLOW NOT REALLY REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING
TOWARD AREA FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY
LITTLE FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND LL MOISTURE NOT AS
ESTABLISHED SO KEPT FCST DRY THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...INTRODUCING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW.

THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 30-40 KNOT 925-850 MB JET. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH 15Z. AS A RESULT...AM
EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IN THE PCPN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED THOUGH BY REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR A VCSH
AHEAD OF FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TONIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME IFR TO
POSSIBLY LIFR BR DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JDR/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL






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