Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 171403
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1003 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through the week.
Dry conditions and slowly moderating temperatures can be
expected through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Frost advisory is expired as of 10 am. Light frost was observed
in many locations earlier this morning.

High pressure will extend across the region today. Only FEW-
SCT cirrus is expected. Under a south/southwest flow and mostly
sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 60s.
Adjusted highs slightly based on latest short term model blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue across the region into Wednesday.
Clear skies tonight and sunny skies on Wednesday are expected.
Lows tonight will dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Some
patchy frost may be possible across the eastern zones. Highs on
Wednesday will moderate into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A sprawling and very dry area of high pressure will stretch all the
way from the northeastern states to Texas through much of the
extended forecast period. Aside from a very weak cold front
attempting to make it into the southern Great Lakes / northern Ohio
Valley on Thursday night, there will be little change in the pattern
through Saturday. Low-level warm advection, with gradually
increasing 925mb temps, will allow for a gradual rise in
temperatures through Friday.

By Saturday, the overall pattern will begin to get more amplified,
as mid-level ridging over the southeastern states becomes more
pronounced. Because of this, there is some potential for
temperatures on Saturday to be a little warmer than currently
forecast, though even now the going expectation is for it to be the
warmest day of the entire forecast period.

On Sunday, a sharp but narrow trough will begin its progression
eastward across the Mississippi Valley, eventually reaching the Ohio
Valley at some point between then and Monday. Model timing agreement
is not excellent with this system, though there has been some
improvement with the 00Z runs as the ECMWF has come in with a faster
solution -- though still slower than the 18Z/00Z GFS. PoPs will be
kept in the chance range until this really gets locked in a little
better. As of now, the greatest precipitation chances appear to be
during the Sunday night forecast period. Once the trough and its
associated cold front pass through the area, there appears to be
potential for a larger upper trough to move into the Great Lakes
late on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
River valley fog will burn off between 12Z and 14Z.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will extend across the region
through the TAF period. FEW-SCT cirrus can be expected today
along with an increase in wind from the south/southwest due to
an increase in the surface pressure gradient and diurnal mixing.

For tonight, clear skies will prevail once again. Winds will
diminish between 22Z and 00Z. River valley fog will be a
concern once again after 06Z Wednesday with VLIFR expected at
KLUK.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman


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