Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
917 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE ARE SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
WESTERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA. IN A DEVELOPING CAA
PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT ANY BREAKS TO BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE CAA...SOME CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW...AND A BIT OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY AND A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND CAA..DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO RISE ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LETTING LOWS DROP
TO AROUND 20. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES
EAST...BUT THE WARMER AIR WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO SCOUR OUT THE
COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S...SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RESULTS OF SOME SUNSHINE AND
WARMER AIR BEING USHERED IN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MINIMAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER SATURDAY ONWARDS...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY
TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING NLY SFC FLOW BEHIND A H5 S/W WILL HELP PULL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SWD ACROSS THE TAFS THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS AND TIME
SECTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MVFR IS MORE SCATTERED THAN PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WITH THE CAA ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AGAIN AFT
00Z.

NW FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ALLOW SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY KDAY. AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

AFT 06Z SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
UP THE LOWER CLOUDS IN CVG/LUK...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
HANG AROUND AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES





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