Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 290832
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NORTH
OF OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN IL, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING FIRMLY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS WAKE CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY MORNING. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED NW OF THE
IL RIVER AND INTO EASTERN IOWA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR SW IN
EASTERN MISSOURI NEAR ST LOUIS.

THE RAPID REFRESH AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATIONAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
SHORTWAVES EVIDENT IN NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND OK/TX. THE
MISSOURI WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PUT MOST OF OUR COUNTIES UNDER THE THREAT OF RAIN. WE WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY, WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE WAVE IN OUR N COUNTIES. THE KANSAS WAVE WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON, PROMPTING LIKELY POPS WEST OF I-55.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY PERIODIC CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

PREVIOUSLY, MODELS WERE PRETTY SUCCINCT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
AND CURRENTLY, THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE ALL PROFUSE WITH THE QPF
ACROSS THE BOARD.  HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4 KM WRF
INITIALIZED WELL, PICKING UP ON THE SHOWERS TO THE NW AND SO FAR, IS
RIGHT ON TRACK. OF COURSE, THE 4 KM WRF TAKES THE IMPULSE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE SW AND DRAGS IT UP AND ALONG THE FRONT, KEEPING ALL
OF THE PRECIP TO THE NW BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING.  THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SHORTWAVE, AND
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF RAPID FLOW, AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS (PW
VALUES FROM 1.5-2 BEFORE 12Z) IN THE REGION...AM KEEPING TO A WETTER
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE,
EITHER FROM THE FRONT ITSELF OR FROM OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.

PRECIP LIKELY TOMORROW AS WELL AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. FRONT SLOWING A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...MAKING IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STALLING
IN PARALLEL FLOW SOMEWHAT.  LINGERING POPS IN THE SE START TO
LESSEN, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE REMNANT
FRONT.  COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND THE WEEKEND
WRAPS UP UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.  SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN  AND THE MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO RETURN A
DRIER SOLUTION.  HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PD...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN AND THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND THEIR AFFECT ON CIGS AND
VSBYS. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
AT KSPI WHERE THEY RECEIVED SOME RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL ADD A 6 MILE RESTRICTION TO VSBY LATE
TONIGHT AT SPI AS THEIR TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 3 DEGREES. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AT SPI WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP THE FOG
FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL MO TRACKING NORTHEAST AND MOST SHORT TERM MODELS
BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MORNING AS THIS
WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS STILL VERY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VCSH OR VCTS
GOING TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP COMING
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH



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