Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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983
FXUS63 KILX 121755
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Updated the forecaster earlier this morning to add the chance of
light snow over northern counties mainly along and north of I-74
into early afternoon with less than a half inch. This due to a
weak clipper system sliding se while main core of short wave was
over the western/southern Great Lakes. Low clouds cover IL into
southern parts of IA/WI and models decrease these clouds from nw
to se from mid afternoon into early evening. Increasing WNW winds
of 10-20 mph and gusts 20-30 mph will start to bring in polar air
as temps will be slipping during the afternoon. Highs early range
from mid 20s northern CWA to around 30F in southeast IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system tracking quickly southeast over western
Missouri has spread a band of mostly light snow into parts of
central through southeast Illinois early this morning. A narrow band
of light to moderate snow was located from Springfield southeast to
just north of Taylorville where a few locations may see up to 1.5
inches before the snow moves out this morning. Otherwise, the rest
of the area should see generally less than one inch. The weak
surface low was located over southern Missouri and will continue to
track quickly away from our area today taking any lingering snow off
to our east by late this morning.

In the wake of the weak clipper system, another surge of Arctic air
will spill southeast into the region this afternoon accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind. Some of the areas over central through
southeast Illinois that has some light accumulation of snow this
morning may actually see some blowing snow at times this afternoon
as winds gust up to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will struggle into
the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this
afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures
and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A brief respite from the snow expected for tonight, although the
bitterly cold temperatures will settle into Central Illinois
tonight. Mostly clear skies will help the temperatures drop down
into the low single digits as the sun rises on Saturday. Although
the winds are only expected in the 10 to 12mph range, the wind
chills will be close to advisory criteria potentially across the
northern half of the state. Highs only expected into the teens for
the first half of the weekend.  Models continue to speed up the
precip for the next clipper like system for Sat night.  Previously
not expected until Sunday morning, now models are accelerating the
onset of the precip to just around midnight Sat night.  Timing
issues with the last couple of systems lowers confidence in this
being the final word.  Expect adjustments.  Either way, snow
expected most of the day Sunday and Sunday night.  General amounts
of 2 to 4 inches expected before the snow tapers off on Monday.
Again, forecast will be shifting in the next couple runs as can be
expected in fast moving systems in rapid nwrly flow.

Behind the snow, a major pattern shift will begin a slow warming
trend as the ridge that has been dominating the western half of the
country moves into the Midwest. High temperatures should be back
above the freezing mark for Wednesday, and into the 40s and 50s
Thursday and Friday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system was bringing a band of light snow and
flurries that was progessing se of the IL river and approaching
I-72 at midday. The light snow was bringing vsbys down to 1-3
miles for 1-2 hours at PIA and will affect BMI and CMI next few
hours and possibly briefly bring MVFR vsbys to DEC early this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to scattered out from nw to
se late this afternoon and early evening. Brisk NW winds of 13-18
kts and gusts of 18-25 kts into this evening will diminish to
around 10 kts by overnight and down to 5-9 kts late tonight into
Saturday morning. 1046 mb arctic high pressure west of Lake
Winnipeg Canada will settle into eastern IA by 18Z/noon Sat as it
weakens a bit to 1041 mb. This will provide the fair weather
tonight into Sat with winds diminishing as high pressure settles
in.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07



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