Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KIND...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA IS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOOK TO IMPACT KLAF...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN IF IT OR ITS REMNANTS WILL REACH KIND.

IF IT DOES REACH KIND...IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z. FOR NOW
WILL JUST KEEP A LOWER SCATTERED LAYER AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/50

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