Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231806
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
206 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHEN A STACKED CLOSED LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION...REMAINING IN THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BRINGING REPEATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT DREARY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

NO CHANGES MADE WITH MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AFTER STARTING OUT COOL...EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE TO HELP TEMPS RISE
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH...AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS IS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND...AS RAW MODEL TEMPS LOOKED FAR
TOO COLD BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. MAY SEE A BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD LATE TODAY...BUT LIKELY TOO LATE TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WANT TO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...BUT
AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS IS
OVERDONE.

SOME ADDITIONAL MODEL DISCREPANCIES HAVE CREPT IN BETWEEN THE OLDER
EURO AND THE NEW GFS ON FRONTAL TIMING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WHAT HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT SCENARIO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PRECIP INTO THE
AREA NO EARLIER THAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...K INDEX VALUES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AND WILL CARRY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.
A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE CARDS...AND INDEED LATEST
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHIFTS THE THREAT FOR THE DAY FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.

ON TEMPS...MOS BLEND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LOOKS BEST FOR MOST PERIODS
AS RAW MODEL NUMBERS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO COOL...SIGNIFICANTLY SO IN
SOME PERIODS...BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW QUIET WEATHER AND RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER THERE ARE BIG CHANGES FOR THE BEGINNING ON NEXT WEEK AS
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLOWLY LINGER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MORE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A WARM
FRONT OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD INDIANA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS TO THE TAF
SITES. TIME HEIGHTS AT THAT TIME FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AS DO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD JUST THE VFR CEILINGS.

TAF SITES SPEND MUCH OF THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH MINIMAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IN PLACE ALOFT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN RESUME ON LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE ARRIVING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 00Z THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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