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000
FXUS63 KIND 050823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM AND AVIATION
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 06Z FORECAST.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AT KLAF. INCLUDED SOME BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT ALL SITES
BUT KLAF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BIT OF LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS

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