015
FXUS63 KIND 152340
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
740 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and quite humid much of the next week, with daily
  chances for showers and storms

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are primary concerns, though
  some potential for more organized/stronger storms will exist late
  Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Presence of a warm front and weak upper wave have sparked scattered
to numerous showers and storms this afternoon, and these will
persist into the evening hours. Anticipate some
weakening/dissipation of this activity early in the night with the
loss of diurnal heating, though the arrival of another impulse
within the disorganized upper wave may spark more activity later
tonight, which will necessitate PoPs throughout the night.

Primary threats with the activity today into tonight will be, beyond
the obvious lightning, continued concerns with respect to heavy
downpours and localized flooding given slow storm motion, extremely
high precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches/near
climatological maximum, deep pseudotropical moisture profiles, and
highly efficient rain processes.

These concerns will remain into Wednesday as well, though increased
instability may also present an isolated/conditional wind threat
late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

Temperatures will remain roughly near or just slightly above
persistence tonight into Wednesday given dewpoints remaining in the
low 70s overnight and only slight low level thickness increases
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A typical, if quite anomalously moist, midsummer pattern, will
persist throughout the long term period, dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge to our south and primarily subtle upper level
impulses passing periodically to our north within the quasizonal
belt of prevailing westerlies.

Presence of a frontal boundary in the region Thursday may promote
slightly higher but still low potential for organized convection
during this time frame, but uncertainty is quite high given
dependence upon prior rounds of storms, which will continue with
time throughout the long term.

Daily thunderstorm chances will be necessary, with limited
predictability in any one period given mesoscale dependencies which
are poorly resolved by global model guidance on the time scale of
days. That said, we are moving into the heart of the ridge rider
season, so one or more opportunities for strong storms producing
wind cannot be disregarded, particularly given the persistence of
the warm and very humid airmass.

Regardless of any strong to severe storm threat that may exist on
any particular day, prime conditions for heavy rain and localized
flooding will persist throughout the period.

With the exception of very slightly cooler temps on Friday in the
wake of the weakening boundary, highs will be seasonably warm in the
mid 80s to around 90, and lows in the 60s to low 70s. The humid
airmass will push afternoon heat index values well into the 90s most
days with a few days likely rising into the low 100s in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms possible, mainly late tonight through
  midday Wednesday

- Light MVFR fog possible at the outlying sites late tonight

Discussion:

Primarily VFR conditions expected through the period outside of any
convection. Showers or storms will be possible much of the period,
but particularly near BMG late tonight into Wednesday morning. Will
carry a mention at BMG along with HUF and IND as sufficient forcing
from a passing wave supports scattered convection. Confidence is too
low for an explicit mention near LAF.

The main timing for precipitation appears to be from 08-15Z
Wednesday, but cannot rule out storms outside of this window.
Brief MVFR ceilings are also possible from 08-14Z. Winds will be
south- southeasterly to start the period and become southwesterly
after daybreak Wednesday. Expect speeds generally below 10KT.

The very humid airmass may promote fog development late tonight at
the outlying sites, though guidance is uncertain with respect to
this. Will carry some MVFR fog after about 08Z through just after
sunrise for only LAF as showers or storms may help prevent fog at
the other sites late tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Melo