Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 032001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
301 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

The short term period will continue to feature a cold and wet
weather pattern, with mostly light rain expected from this evening
through the day on Monday. The latest model soundings have trended
a bit warmer in the lower levels, so only a few isolated instances
of rain/snow mix are expected late tonight into early Monday. An
area of low pressure coming out of the southern Plains will be our
weather maker through Sunday night. Temperatures during the period
will quite cool, with overnight lows in the 30s and highs on
Sunday in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

The extended period looks to be quite active throughout, with a
series of weather systems expected to bring multiple round of
precipitation to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. The
first area of low pressure is expected to move out of the southern
Plains/western Gulf of Mexico region Monday and Monday night. This
system will bring light to moderate rainfall to the area through
Tuesday, with the highest chance for rain coming from late Monday
night through early Tuesday afternoon. Between three quarters and
one inch of rain is expected across the area through Wednesday
morning, with locally higher amounts possible. We should
experience a brief lull in the active weather during the day on
Wednesday, as our second area of low pressure exits the region. A
third system, however, is on track to move across the area
Wednesday night through Thursday night. This system will bring
quite a bit of cold air into the area on its eastward trek. In
fact, we are expecting minor snowfall accumulations across most
of the area from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Periods of rain/snow mix will then be possible Thursday and
Thursday night, as colder air filters into the region behind the
departing area of low pressure.

Temperatures in the extended will vary greatly. Highs on Monday
and Wednesday should top out mostly in the 40s, with max values in
the 50s on tap for Tuesday, as southerly flow sets up with an
area of low pressure that will be moving across the area that day
and night. After that, however, temperatures will take sharp nose
dive, as a cold air mass settles over the region to end out the
week. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 30s for
most locations, with a few spots along the Tennessee border
perhaps breaking 40. The cold air will become firmly established
on Friday, with highs that day struggling to reach or break 30
degrees across the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will
likely fall into the teens across the area, as cold westerly flow
sets up across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Low and middle level cloud cover will continue to plague the
airports of eastern Kentucky through early this evening. The
result will be a fluctuation between MVFR and VFR CIGS through
between 5 and 8Z tonight. Conditions will likely worsen by between
12 and 13Z Sunday, as an area low pressure moves by just to our
south, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible at the TAF sites due
to low cloud cover and incoming rain showers. The first rain
should begin moving into eastern Kentucky between 1 and 2Z this
evening. The precipitation will gradually further and further
north overnight, with some snow perhaps even mixing with the rain
by 6Z. The northern edge of the precipitation shield is expected
to push through our northernmost counties by 13Z Sunday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



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