Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 200745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

Ridging at the surface and aloft over the eastern CONUS will
provide mild and dry weather with clear to partly cloudy skies
through the period. High clouds will increase by the end of the
period as the upper level ridge creeps to the east. Seasonal
valley fog is expected during the early morning and late night
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

The extended forecast period begins on Saturday night with a
pattern in the process of changing as high pressure anchored into
the central Appalachians will finally begin to slip east. A
deepening longwave trough will begin to dig into the southeast
CONUS as the high exits to the east with return flow setting up.
This will draw significant moisture northward ahead of the
developing cold front. Models have been rather consistent with the
large plume of moisture being drawn northward. Thus, have
inherited categorical pops for the Sunday night through Monday
night timeframe from the super blend and will keep these values.
The front lifts northeast through KY by Tuesday evening. The air
mass behind this front will usher in the coldest air of the season
so far.

Post frontal troughs will keep a period of cooler temperatures and
lingering showers through Wednesday. The colder air in place will
mean low temperatures dropping into the mid 30s for lows Thursday
morning. For this, have added some frost in the forecast for the
extended. Overall, a cooler pattern is on the horizon for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

Fog will affect the typical valley locations through early
morning. It will also likely affect KSME and KLOZ for a time
around sunrise. Aside from this, VFR conditions will prevail, with
little in the way of wind.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL



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