Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 252034
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HOWEVER...ITS PRESENCE DOES COMPLICATE WHAT
WOULD BE AN OTHERWISE BENIGN FORECAST AS MOISTURE POOLING IN ADVANCE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A RIBBON OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 900 MB ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE...IT IS POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY
DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. SHOULD ENOUGH MIXING HANG IN...THIS MAY
MANIFEST AS A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH JUST PATCHY FOG AT THE SURFACE.
SO...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPORARILY
STALLS OUR WARMING TREND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TWO SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST ONE...A COLD FRONT...BUT THEY ARE
STILL TRYING TO LOCK IN ON THE TIMING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND COUPLED WITH SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
QUESTIONABLE TIMING OF PRECIP NEAR 00Z POSES A PROBLEM FOR POPS.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM AREA WIDE...IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER IT WILL BE IN THE 12 HRS BEFORE OR AFTER 00Z...OR BOTH...FOR
THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED 50 PERCENT POPS IN THAT
AREA FOR BOTH PERIODS. WHILE THERE IS NO OFFICIAL 24 HR POP...IF
THERE WAS IT WOULD BE IN THE 70 PERCENT RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER
00Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS INDICATED...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT SE OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE FAIR WX AND TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS TODAY...THE MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IF THE
12Z RUNS PLAY OUT...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE RUNNING WITH THIS. FOR NOW...WILL
CARRY LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND MID-UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY COULD
END UP NEEDING TO GO LOWER SHOULD THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...WITH MVFR CEILINGS OBSERVED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
THE LOWER CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS JKL...THUS THE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THAT TAF...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS STAY NORTHWESTERLY...NOT THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
TYPICALLY BRINGS THE LOW CIGS. SO...WILL ONLY ADVERTISE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
TOMORROW SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...ABE







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