Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 230854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB




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