Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 271557
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017
Satellite imagery shows the cloud cover over eastern zones has all
but eroded, with a sunny sky expected to prevail areawide for the
rest of the day. Remaining hourly grids are generally on target.
Will address weekend storm system and associated hazards with the
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
Cloud shield is eroding in south central La this am while other
TAF lctns have gone VFR. All sites xpcd to become VFR by the late
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
The cold front that moved through the area late last night
continues its march eastward this morning and is currently
bisecting Alabama from north to south. Back across our area, IR
imagery indicating a band of low level cloud cover extending
across much of southwest and south central Louisiana. Expect
these clouds to continue to trail the cold front out of our area
over the next few hours leaving sunny skies and a cool
northwesterly breeze...at least for the first half of the day. By
this afternoon a quickly moving surface high behind the front will
slide east of our area turning winds back out of the south and
increasing temps and dewpoints.
With this event behind us, all eyes are now turning towards the
next front this weekend. With many outdoor public events scheduled
across the region this weekend, this front could have significant
impacts. Guidance has been in consistent agreement that the
actual front will push through the area from midday into the
afternoon Sunday and the day four 90% POPs reflect that
confidence. However, models have been a bit more tepid with
regards to precipitation Saturday. Today`s runs are much wetter
than those of 24 hours ago, but confidence in this solution is not
as high especially early Saturday.
What does appear a bit more certain is the possibility of another
round of severe weather Sunday along with the potential for heavy
rainfall. With an extremely moist atmosphere expected to be in
place, most guidance is favoring two day rainfall totals of two
to four inches, but locally higher amounts will be possible.
The front will clear the area late Sunday ushering in another
brief round of cool, dry air for Monday. Southerly winds and
moisture return by mid week as does the rain potential as another
shortwave trough is progged to swing across the central U.S. for
the latter part of next week.
Offshore winds this morning will veer around to the south by this
afternoon. Strong and gusty winds, elevated seas of 8-12 feet and
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday and
Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area.
Behind the front, winds turn offshore once again on Monday before
veering back onshore again by the middle of next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 77 64 87 74 / 0 10 20 20
LCH 80 68 85 75 / 0 10 20 20
LFT 84 71 88 78 / 0 10 30 10
BPT 81 69 87 77 / 0 10 20 20