Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 220113
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
813 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TAD BUT STILL A SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER. HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO LEVELS NOT
SEEN AS YET THIS SUMMER. WILL NEED TO PAY SOME ATTENTION
PARTICULARLY AROUND HARDIN COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP
PRECIP CHANCES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.

SWEENEY

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
SR TMRW MRNG MAINLY ALONG THE CST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF...WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER DECAYING FRONTAL TROF BASICALLY OVER THE
I-10/U.S. 190 CORRIDOR OF SE TX/S LA. ISO SHRA HAS MAINLY STAYED
ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SC LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...THUS LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER S LA.

OUR REGION REMAINS BETWEEN AN EAST COAST TROF CUTTING OFF OVER
THE NE GULF...AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TUE WITH ONLY ISO SHRA
EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE UPPER
LOW RETROGRADING WESTWARD OVER THE N GULF COAST...WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT BY LATE TUE EVENING OVER SC LA...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...AND
SPREADING INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WED & THU.
THUS...KEPT THE CURRENT TREND OF INCREASING POPS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

BY FRI...THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECREASED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BUT SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT FORMS OVER
ALABAMA AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY DRIFTS SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  75  90  75 /  10  30  20  40  20
KBPT  76  93  76  90  75 /  10  20  20  40  20
KAEX  70  90  73  92  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
KLFT  73  90  74  90  74 /  10  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







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