Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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605
FXUS64 KLCH 061543
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
943 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS INLAND...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AREA COVERAGE IS
GENERALLY DIMINISHING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FROM CURRENT
TRENDS ADDING SOME LOW END POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WHILE LOWERING ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS
SHOWING CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT VORT MAX OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
THIS FEATURE INCOMING...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END AFTERNOON POPS AND
CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT/SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING SERN TX ATTM.
EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE SWRN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE DEPARTING TWO OR SO HOURS LATER. THUNDER HAS
BEEN FAIRLY SPORADIC WITH THIS ACTIVITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT NOT LOOKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
ATTM. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REMAINING SITES
BY NOON-TIME. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE/BOUNDARY
AND SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH.

WITH A COOL START...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
RE-ENFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A GOOD BIT FOR MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME FLAGS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

AFTER TODAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  32  60  38 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  55  35  59  42 /  20  10   0   0
LFT  57  35  60  41 /  20  10   0   0
BPT  58  36  61  41 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23



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