Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 260419
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016
For the 26/06Z TAF issuance.
Convection over land areas have diminished with redevelopment over
the coastal waters. With steering winds from the east and
northeast, this activity is expected to mainly stay offshore
during the night. Therefore, mainly VFR conditions can be
expected during the overnight, with the exception of KAEX that
may see some patchy fog with MVFR visibilities between 26/10Z and
26/14Z...and some low clouds at KARA/KLFT that may bring some off
and on IFR conditions through 26/10Z. On Tuesday, plenty of
moisture hanging around...along with an upper level disturbance
across the region...will allow a decent coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Will start with VCSH at coastal TAF sites at 26/12Z
then VCTS at all TAF sites after 26/15Z.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 943 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
UPDATE...Convection continues to decrease across the region as
heating is lost, however showers are now developing over the
coastal waters. This trend will continue through the rest of the
night with scattered to numerous developing through early morning
over the gulf then moving to the coast by sunrise. This is in line
with the previous thinking and no changes are needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
Sctd showers and storms are noted on KLCH radar this aftn, as the
remnants of convection over the coastal waters moves sw while the
interaction of outflow and seabreeze boundaries with abundant
moisture and daytime instability have produced several clusters of
tstms acrs srn LA/se TX. The combination of the very moist airmass
with weak storm motions have allowed for torrential rainfall and
high rain rates in a few locations with the possibility of some
minor flooding in urban or low-lying areas.
Aloft, an inverted trof was seen on water vapor imagery over the
nrn Gulf between a subtropical ridge off the SE CONUS and a ridge
over the Desert SW. At the sfc, a weak trough stretched fm nr
Toledo Bend se to just off the coast of the FL panhandle.
Ongoing convection late this aftn should diminish during the evening
with the loss of heating. Additional showers and tstms are
expected to re-develop offshore overnight, affecting coastal
locations toward daybreak.
The inverted mid/upr trof over the nrn Gulf will move very slowly
west through the week, resulting in a continued unsettled weather
pattern. Exceptionally high precip water values in excess of 2
inches, and generally between 2.2 to 2.4 inches, will remain over
the region. The result will be enhanced chances showers and tstms.
Maintained slt/low end chc POPs during the morning periods with
chc/low end likely during the aftns through Wednesday. Warm muggy
nights and hot humid days will continue. Aftn temps look to stay
near or a little below avg, right around 90 degrees, but this will
be quite variable depending on when and where rain occurs.
By Friday, a nrn stream shortwave will dig southward over the
mid MS Valley, with the weakness aloft bcmg more sheared. Higher
pres aloft looks to gradually build back over the region during
the weekend. While this won`t bring an end to daily rain chcs,
convective coverage should start to decrease by Sunday into
Lt and vrbl winds will continue tonight into Tuesday as a weak sfc
trough remains over the region. Sly flow will resume by Wednesday
as high pres becomes re-established acrs FL into the nrn Gulf.
a lt to modt onshore flow and low seas will continue through the
remainder of the period. Sctd to nmrs showers and tstms are
expected mainly fm overnight into late morning as a disturbance
aloft moves slowly west the next few days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 91 74 88 / 30 50 30 60
LCH 76 89 77 89 / 30 50 40 60
LFT 75 90 76 89 / 30 60 40 60
BPT 75 90 76 90 / 30 50 30 60