Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
657 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

For the 10/22/17 1200 UTC TAF package.


Band of pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms headed quickly to
the SE are nearing Central LA, with more isolated to scattered
convective cells farther to the south moving generally toward the
NE. Based onset of convective line at each terminal on radar
trends, though obviously there is greater uncertainty regarding
timing and integrity of the convection at the coastal terminals,
especially KLFT/KARA. North wind gusts up to around 30 knots are
possible with the passage of the band, along with a short period
of visibility reducing heavy rain and lower CIGS. Conditions
behind the line are a bit more variable, with at least a brief
period of VFR CIGS, followed perhaps by a more extended period of
MVFR or even IFR CIGS just ahead of and behind the actual front.
Focus of this issuance was the timing and conditions primarily
associated with the pre-frontal band of convection, so the
potential for these lower CIGS is not currently reflected in the
forecasts. VFR is expected to prevail all sites by this evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

A persistent area of thunderstorms has been occurring acrs
portions of Acadiana since last evening, with periods of intense
rainfall since the beginning of this shift (05Z). During this
time, rainfall amounts of four to six inches have fallen acrs
parts of Iberia, Saint Mary and Saint Martin Parishes, prompting
the issuance of Flash Flood Warnings for these areas. This area
is within a zone of high moisture (precip water around 1.9 inches
per GPS-TPW), and focused along an area of enhanced low level
convergence, with lift augmented by shortwave energy over the

Meanwhile, a large band of thunderstorms extends from near Little
Rock southwest towards Tyler and into central TX near Waco. This
band is associated with a cold front that is progressing quickly
southeast early this morning.


Recent HRRR guidance suggests the cluster of storms over Acadiana
will diminish, with activity lifting northeast early this morning.
However, recent radar trends have indicated otherwise with
additional storms developing further southwest over the coastal
waters. Will continue to monitor this activity the next few hours,
as a flash flood watch may be needed, especially with additional
convection is expected later today with the passage of the cold

The line of storms to the northwest is expected to reach the
northwestern CWA around 12Z, and quickly cross the area this
morning, reaching the Acadiana region by early aftn. This
activity will be associated with a pre-frontal trough, with the
actual front lagging by about 3 to 4 hours. Additional showers
could accompany the front as it moves through the region during
the aftn. The overall risk of severe weather still appears minimal
with weak shear and modest CAPE, but a slight increase in diurnal
instability could result in an isolated storm or two capable of
producing strong to marginally severe wind gusts or small hail,
especially acrs eastern portions of the area. Heavy rainfall will
also be possible within some of the storms. This is not expected
to pose any problems acrs much of the area, especially with the
rather quick progression of storms from west to east. However,
minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas acrs Acadiana
will be possible due to saturated conditions from overnight

By this evening, drier northwesterly flow will develop aloft as
an upper trough moves over the lower MS valley, bringing an end
to the rain with skies expected to clear from west to east
overnight. Cooler air will spread into the area, with lows
falling into the 50s tonight, and highs in the 70s Monday aftn.

The cool and dry weather will get an additional boost late Monday
into early Tuesday as a second front moves through the area. With
dry air over the area (precip water will be well below one inch),
no rainfall is expected with the front, but it will bring even
cooler temperatures to the area. By Wednesday morning lows are
expected to fall into the 40s acrs much of the area, and into the
upper 40s/lower 50s on Thursday. Aftn highs from Tuesday through
Thursday are expected to be in the 70s along with abundant

Sfc high pres will quickly cross the region Thursday into Friday,
resulting in a slight warmup by Friday. Model guidance continues
to advertise another front toward the end of the week, but still
with little agreement on timing. Continued to go with Superblend
guidance, which leans toward a fropa during the day Friday
followed by cooler temperatures to start the weekend.


Onshore flow today will shift offshore during the aftn as a cold
front crosses the region. Widespread showers and tstms can be
expected along and ahead of the front today. Offshore flow will
strengthen tonight and continue into Monday as cooler and drier
air moves into the area, and this has prompted Exercise Caution
headlines for these periods of the coastal waters fcst.

A secondary front will move acrs the coastal waters late Monday
night into early Tuesday, reinforcing the strong offshore flow
through midweek. Winds and seas are expected to increase further
with the passage of this front, and Small Craft Advisories may be
required from Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will diminish late
Wednesday as high pres becomes centered over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico, with onshore flow returning by Thursday.



AEX  79  52  76  50 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  82  57  78  53 / 100  10   0   0
LFT  82  58  76  53 / 100  20   0   0
BPT  81  55  78  54 /  90  10   0   0


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution from this evening through Monday
     evening for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.


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