Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 300237
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
937 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet night...weather-wise. No updates expected to current
forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Quiet weather pattern as clouds are expected to fall apart over
the next hour or two... areas of fog expected to develop towards
sunrise with vsby dropping... looking at MVFR at the TAF lctns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A very warm and humid afternoon across the forecast area with
temperatures away from the immediate coast in the upper 80s to
around 90F, and heat index readings in the low to mid 90s. With
some upper level ridging and mid level dry air noted across the
forecast area, local radars have been void of any significant
convection so far. May be a stray shower or two before the end of
daytime heating, especially near any sea breeze that tries to
form. However, a vast majority of locations will remain shower
free.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over southern
California, with an upper level northern stream trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. Disturbance rotating around the upper
level low is expected to be picked up by the southern stream and
pushed toward the forecast area, cutting briefly into the upper
level ridge by Monday afternoon. With a warm and moist air mass in
place, this will likely help kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms over the forecast area.

This system will move off to the east on Tuesday, with upper level
ridging again over the forecast area to limit convection.

By Wednesday, northern stream upper level trough will begin to
pick up and absorb upper level low and move off to the east. This
system will begin to break down the ridge over the forecast area
by Thursday, allowing an increase in chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

There is decent consistency in extended guidance now, with this
upper level system stalling over the region on Friday, with a cut
off upper level low developing west of the forecast area over
Texas. Therefore, looks like high rain chances for the end of the
week into next weekend. Will have to watch this closely, as this
is the typical pattern for heavy rainfall for the forecast area.

Rua

MARINE...
A weak high pressure system at the surface is located over the
coastal waters this afternoon. Mainly light winds, and therefore,
low seas are the result. This high pressure system will continue
to meander over the coastal waters through mid week, allowing the
light, mainly onshore winds, and relatively low seas to continue.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  91  70  91 /  10  30  10  20
LCH  71  88  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  72  90  71  90 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  71  88  70  88 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15


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