Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 290440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EYES ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT THE MOMENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE LINE ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME
WEAKENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PICKING UP
SPEED. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FAR OFF FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKENS THE PORTION OF THE LINE THAT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 29/11Z...WITH THE BEST CONVECTION STAYING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AS EARLY AS 29/12Z AT KBPT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 29/17Z WITH
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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