Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 292206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  91  72  89 /  10  10  10  30
KBPT  74  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  30
KAEX  67  90  68  88 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  71  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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