Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 010229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
929 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST
TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM ROUGHLY 01/10Z TO 01/14Z. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EAST TEXAS...AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE NEAR THE
KBPT/KLCH TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINING
TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  74  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  30
LFT  74  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  74  87  74  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05


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