Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 310925
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41  50 /  10  30  60  40   0
KBPT  62  56  71  41  52 /  10  40  70  30   0
KAEX  61  51  67  36  47 /   0  40  70  40   0
KLFT  64  55  70  42  50 /   0  30  60  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

27
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