Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 201551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NE WIND 6-8 KTS TODAY AND
TUE AFTERNOONS...LIKELY BECOMING L&V AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NE WIND.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

24

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  83  59  82  54 /  10  10  10   0   0
KBPT  58  83  61  81  57 /  10  10  10   0   0
KAEX  53  82  55  79  49 /  10  10   0  10   0
KLFT  57  83  58  82  53 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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