Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS65 KLKN 302243
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
343 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO NEVADA ON TUESDAY. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. MILDER
WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY STATIONED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER RUN AT RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UMPTEENTH TIME IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS. A FEW
PLACES MAY FLIRT WITH ALL TIME MARCH RECORDS...BUT THIS TIME, THE
WARMTH IS NOT TO LAST. SO...ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN! APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL BRING HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH FOR A RELATIVELY MILD (ABOVE
FREEZING) NIGHT IN MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT LOOK STRONG BUT
DON`T APPEAR TO QUITE GET FAST ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY...WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS PEAKING BELOW 40 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. ITS PRETTY
BORDERLINE HOWEVER...AND NEXT SHIFT WILL LOOK AT THIS AGAIN TO SEE
IF IT LOOKS A BIT BETTER FOR A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW ELKO
COUNTY WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THE LEE-SIDE/DOWNSLOPE
AREAS EAST OF THE RUBIES AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GREAT SALT
LAKE DESERT. WHETHER OR NOT IT HITS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE
WIND WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO STIR UP SOME BLOWING DUST. ENOUGH
FORCING EXISTS TO PRODUCE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA...BUT THINK THEY
WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED. HIGHS WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GET COLD AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN AND WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE ANOTHER 10-15 DEGREE DROP FROM TUESDAY`S HIGHS. WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BUT WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AGAIN THESE SHOULD BE PRETTY FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACKING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VORT MAX AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY CREATE A BAND OF SNOW IN THE
WHITE PINE COUNTY AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH SITS OVERHEAD AND INSOLATION MIXES WITH SOME VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES AND WHILE
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...JUST SEEING SNOW
IN THE AIR AFTER THE RECENT WARMTH WILL MAKE ONE FEEL PRETTY COLD.
LI`S GO PRETTY NEGATIVE IN MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
SOME GRAUPEL AND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST JUST YET. RCM

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WEAKENING THE HIGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING EVENING SNOW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST NV THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE. LATEST
12Z EC REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROF ALONG THE
WEST COAST THAN THE GFS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. STILL...BOTH MODELS KEEP
PRECIPITION MAINLY IN CALIFORNIA WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
PRESENT. THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT
COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE GFS AND DGEX HAS SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NV WITH A PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE EC RETROGRADES THE TROF WHICH MAINTAINS A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NV. WILL LEAN TOWARD SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODELS ...BUT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES PLAN ON LITTLE CHANGE
IN POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AT TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...THEN GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS ONCE AGAIN BUILT OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED BACK
INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RECORDS BEING
BROKEN.

            RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT      TODAY     TODAY

ELKO        76/1966     75
ELY         72/1966     74
EUREKA      73/1968     77
TONOPAH     77/1966     77
WINNEMUCCA  79/1966     74

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/87/87/93



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.