Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 242124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
224 PM PDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Shower activity will taper off this evening and by
Tuesday will be confined to far northern Nevada. Dry and mild
Wednesday and Thursday then more showers will move into the region
Thursday night and Friday.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Short wave that is
enhancing shower activity today will exit the area tonight for
decreasing shower activity. Upper ridge begins to build northward
on Tuesday but still enough moisture riding over the top into far
northern NV for a few showers. Ridge will continue to build on
Wednesday for dry conditions all areas. Mild temperatures will
continue with highs hitting the lower 70s across the warmer
locales on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday. With the
upper level pattern continuing to be progressive, several storms
are poised to move through the Great Basin and yield some
precipitation. The strength and moisture content cannot be
determined at this time, and do vary model by model, however the
timing of the storm systems by the individual models is similar.
There may be some changes upcoming due to the infusion of energy
from dying tropical systems later in the week.

Wednesday night through Thursday morning. High pressure centered
over Mexico and the Baja Region will provide dry weather.
Temperatures will be relatively mild as 582DM H5 heights expand
northward into Idaho and Wyoming. Lows will generally be in the

Thursday afternoon. A weak shortwave will move through the
Pacific Northwest and brush Nevada. The passage of this wave will
help pull up some Pacific moisture into Humboldt County primarily,
but could affect parts of Lander and Nye Counties as well. High
temperatures will be in the 60s.

Thursday night through Friday night. A slightly positive-tilted
mean trough will be the focus of entertainment as it develops and
settles over the eastern Pacific, open to the northwest CONUS. A
robust shortwave will move through California and Nevada and some
remnant tropical moisture could get infused into the flow. With a
good fetch of moisture, this system could produce a half-inch of
rain for the valleys of northern Nevada as it crosses and re-
develops lee-side of the Sierras. Low temperatures will be in the
40s. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the lower

Saturday through Saturday night. This could turn out to be a
fairly dry, albeit cloudy, period in between systems. A strong
low pressure system will drop south off the coast of northern
California. The southwest flow across the Sierras will likely
scrape off some of the moisture content. High temperatures will be
in the 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.

Sunday through Monday. A little more discrepancy is showing up
between the model solutions due to the amount of energy the next
system is producing. A strong short wave is progged to lift
northeast from the mean trough hanging out over the Pacific, then move
through northern Nevada. Model consistency is generally good with
this short wave. Then, the ECMWF model re-loads the mean trough
with another strong low center off the coast while the GFS model
tends to keep more of the energy up north in a broader short wave
situation. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the
lower 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.

.AVIATION...A storm system will bring moisture to the area through
tonight. Intermittent MVFR CIGS are possible at KELY and KTPH through
Tuesday morning. VFR conditions are expected to hold at KWMC and
KEKO through Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts to 30 mph are possible
at all four sites through early this evening with isolated
thunderstorms possibly affecting all sites.

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
taper off this evening. On Tuesday isolated showers will be
confined to far northern NV. Dry all areas Wednesday. Mild
temperatures will continue with the warmer locales reaching the
lower 70s on Wednesday. Another storm system will bring showers
Thursday night and Friday.



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