Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 160930
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH
A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
CUTTING ACROSS OREGON PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF STATE HIGHWAY 140 /A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN OREGON/
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SKIES START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY WARM REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 86
DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE NATURAL
NEVADA CONVERGENCE ZONES WITH LI`S LOWERING TO MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 800 J/KG. WITH BOTH THE
NAM/GFS KEEPING PWATS AROUND TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH...ANY VERY
LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND DRY. AS FAR AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES...H7 TEMPS OF PLUS 13 TO PLUS 14 WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. ELY...EUREKA AND TONOPAH MAY
COME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TYING THE RECORD FOR THE DATE.

TONIGHT...ANY DRY CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH MODEL INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS /HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES/ AND GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AVERAGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL START OUT SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE FROM SEVEN TO NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
LI`S FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3 AND CAPE INCREASING FROM 400 TO 800
J/KG. WITH THE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT TO BE MAINLY
WET...HAVE ADJUSTED TO CONVECTION ACCORDINGLY. SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS OVER ELKO COUNTY AND 60 TO 65 KTS OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS APPROACH
OR REACH SEVERE LIMITS ESPECIALLY OVER ELKO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FEATURES
AND BEHAVIOR OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST. HAVE THEREFORE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ANY
FORECAST ELEMENT DURING THIS TIME. BASIC IDEA OF SOME MOISTURE SURGE
FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE INTO MOST OF NEVADA THURSDAY
REMAINS IN THE PICTURE. THIS QUASI-MONSOONAL SURGE WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS MIX OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES WITH SHOWERS, ETC. HAVE TRIED TO SIMPLIFY THE
COVERAGE WITH EITHER SHOWERS OR SHOWERS/ISLD THUNDER. TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...CLOSER TO SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE...BUT THIS TIME
FROM GULF OF MEXICO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY CLOSED LOW...A LA MAINLY THE
EC...OVER SOCAL. AGAIN...SERIOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND HAVE NOT CHANGED VIRTUALLY ANYTHING IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY ON OUT. TEMPS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS GUSTY AT
TIMES BUT NOTHING ON THE HORIZON LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY OR ANYTHING. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY AND IN
VICINITY OF KEKO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DRY TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH RESULTING IN STORMS
TRANSITIONING TO WET THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE 15 TO 20 KTS
ALONG WITH MOISTURE AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LEVELS ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WEST COAST TROUGH IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO SET OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.

MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
LEVELS OF SCATTERED DRY STORMS. DRIER AIR WITH LIGHTER WINDS
RETURNS FRIDAY...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY ZONE 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

89/98/98/89




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