Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 011013
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 AM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
THIS WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CENTER OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA...YET WITH ITS COMPANION LOW CENTER
OVER NW NEVADA AT THIS TIME...STILL HELPING TO PROVIDE A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
MOVING WEST ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
DEPICTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER NE NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND THE RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW WEAK ECHOES OVER ELKO
COUNTY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME DEGREE
OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
THE MORE ACTIVE TIME-FRAME FOR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN OUT TO BE A
DRY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. AN EXTREMELY POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH
WILL BE HANGING BACK OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER REX-LIKE PATTERN AND THE 576DM HIGH OVER
MONTANA WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWEST
CONUS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE EVOLUTION
DOES NOT SUGGEST ESTABLISHMENT OF A BLOCKING RIDGE BUT DOES APPEAR
TO SLOW DOWN THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN A BIT. WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE INTRUSION OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO EXTEND
SOME MOISTURE AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NEVADA BUT THE GFS
MODEL SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOLDING THE MOISTURE BACK TO ONLY
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THUS THERE COULD BE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT
EVOLVES INTO A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE THAT DRIFTS TOWARD SRN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONE ALONG THE
COAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ACROSS NEVADA. THIS RESULTS INTO A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN VALLEYS ON WED AFTN/EVE.

WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE SPREADING EAST ACROSS NEVADA...THE MODELS
SHOW SOME SPREAD BUT PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN (AND BLOCKING DEEP CYCLONE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD). AT ANY
RATE...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PLENTY OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SPINNING DEEP CYCLONE INTO
NRN/CENTRAL NEVADA...REGARDLESS ON WHICH DETERMINISTIC MODEL OR
BLEND IS CHOSEN. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE STATE AND HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT ANY
RATE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY MILD AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGH AND
RANGE BETWEEN 7500 TO 8500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NEVADA THAT TRACK
WESTWARD. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AFTER
18Z)...MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA (INCLUDING KTPH)...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS KELY.  AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR SMALL STREAMS
MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD MAKE THEM
IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

92/88/88


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