Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 292239
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
339 PM PDT Wed Mar 29 2017
High cirrus have begun to stream in from the approaching system
which will continue the active trend of valley rain and mountain
snow. This system and accompanying cold front will be more potent
than storms in the past week. In addition to winter weather
advisories for Northern Elko County and the Ruby Mountains, wind
advisories and even a high wind warning are in effect. This system
will exit the state by Friday morning and in its place dry
weather once again with the next ridge building in.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. Clouds will continue to increase
through the overnight as the system to our west continues to push
into our CWA. A combination of warm temperatures to start and high
freezing levels will keep precipitation as rain tonight. The
exception being mountain tops over 8500 ft where the precipitation
will remain as snow. As the cold front sweeps across the CWA
Thursday, air will cool enough to allow for precipitation to
change over to all snow starting mid-late Thursday morning. In
addition, there still exists enough instability associated with
the front that isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out at this
Snow accumulations in most valley locations will see 1-3 inches.
The mountains will see the brunt of this storm with the mountains
in Northern Elko county and Ruby Mountains receiving 6-12 inches
of new snow. Mountains further south and east will see some snow
but not nearly as much with amounts generally around 4-8 inches.
The other weather story for Thursday will be the winds across the
state. Wind advisories remain in effect for Thursday with a high
wind warning out Northern Nye county. Winds will be 25-35 mph with
gusts up to 50 mph across much of the state. Northern Nye will
see sustain winds of 35-45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, especially
in Tonopah. These winds will accompany the snow and could reduce
visibilities at times.
Friday. Lingering snow due to a deformation band on the back side
of the closed low in southern Utah will diminish through the
day across eastern Nevada.
Ridging returns Saturday with dry and pleasant conditions.
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Wednesday. The
progressive pattern continues but it appears that there is only
one full shortwave passage to deal with in the long term period.
And model agreement is very good.
Saturday night. This is essentially a dry period. A shortwave
ridge axis aligned west to east across northern Nevada will be
nudged south by the next incoming shortwave low. Perhaps there
could be some showers developing over northern Humboldt County by
daybreak Sunday morning but the ECMWF is still dry at that point.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Sunday through Monday. Another low pressure wave will move through
the Great Basin. Timing of the cold front looks to be overnight
Sunday night with showers tapering off Monday. Could be another
4-6 inches of snow for elevations above 6000 feet across eastern
Humboldt County and northern Elko County. High temperatures will
spike to near 60s degrees Sunday before the front moves through,
then highs will only reach the 40s on Monday. Low temperatures
will be in the 20s.
Monday night through Wednesday. This entire period is in the dry
period between systems as high pressure rolls across the Great
Basin. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid
50s Tuesday, rising to around 60 degrees again Wednesday. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 20s.
.AVIATION...AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through most of tonight.
VCSH is expected at KWMC by 02z Thursday followed by KEKO at 06z
Thursday. KELY should begin VCSH by 12z Thursday. KTPH will remain
dry for now however significant wind gusts are expected to affect
KTPH by 16z Thursday. Gusts around 50 mph will be possible at KTPH.
.HYDROLOGY...A storm system will bring more valley rain tonight
before changing over to snow on Thursday. Up to a foot of snow is
expected to accumulate on the Independence and Ruby Mountain
ranges. Rivers and creeks will likely continue to run strong as
this will be additional runoff through the weekend and early next
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday
for Northern Elko County.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for Northern Elko
County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko
County-Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Humboldt
County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday
for Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County.
Flood warnings are in effect for the following areas:
Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Moderate flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Comus: Moderate flooding continues.
Marys River: Minor flooding continues.
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
River Statements have been issued for the following areas:
Bruneau River - near Charleston
Humboldt River - Carlin
Humboldt River - Palisade