Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 240923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
223 AM PDT Sun Jul 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Very Dry and warm conditions persist across the state
this week. Thunderstorms chances come back into the picture by
Friday due to a push of monsoon moisture.


.SHORT TERM...This morning through Monday. Overall 5-wave pattern
maintains a long wave high over the southern US with a long wave
trof over the Gulf of AK through the period. This keeps a
generally westerly flow at the mid levels, which in turns prevent
a strong monsoon push over the area. A weak branch of the polar
jet was able to push a weak 500mb trof through the northern half
of the area yesterday evening. Additional energy is expected to
dig south from the long wave trof and and deepen the weak 500mb
trof over the west coast tomorrow. This turns the upper level just
southerly enough to draw the dry/moist boundary into into White
Pine county this afternoon. PWATs go above .50 with LIs around 0
or -1. A cell is certainly possible in eastern White Pine where a
convergence line exist at 700mb. The remainder of the area will
continue with mostly sunny skies and near average temps as 500mb
heights increase about 1DM. Similar situation expected on Monday
as the 595DM 500mb high is centered over southern UT or northern AZ
with the neutrally tilted 500mb trof over the west coast. Just
enough moisture to produce some afternoon buildups over mainly the
higher terrain of eastern NV. 500mb heights increase a little on
Monday; therefore, expect high temps to increase a little as well...but
still not that far from average. As for overnight lows, after a
rather chilly morning in some locations, they should increase each
Sunday night as the overall surface flows turns more to the
south, which nudges the dewpoints upward from their impressive low
values during the past few days.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday. Model agreement remains
pretty good for most of the week. The biggest difference pops up
late in the week when the GFS model brings in monsoon moisture
earlier than the ECMWF model. Until Friday, expect hot and dry
conditions to continue with the possibility of some Heat
Advisories by mid-week. Weak low pressure over the Pacific
Northwest region will keep high pressure in check near the
4-corners area of the country through Tuesday and moisture should
mainly stay east of the LKN CWFA. Then as low pressure begins to
move east as an open wave north of Nevada, high pressure will
strengthen, expanding further west of the 4-corners area to
envelop the entire Great Basin region. High temperatures will
float back up to 100 degrees in some areas Wednesday, Thursday and
possibly even Friday depending on how much cloudiness moves in
with a potential monsoon push. The GFS model, the outlier at this
point and introducing some moisture a day earlier than the model
run a day ago, is showing some convective precipitation along
highway 50 by late Friday afternoon and a significant push of
moisture Friday evening through central Nevada and into the
northeast part of the state. The ECMWF model does introduce some
limited moisture on Saturday. Just to mention, there is a kicker
low feature moving in from the Pacific Northwest Saturday that
could make the monsoon flow not happen for Nevada as it may get
pushed further east into Utah.




.FIRE WEATHER...Although winds are expected to light for
tomorrow, as well as the work week, very low RH values will
remain. Overnight recoveries are expect to improve each night,
with 20-30% for most zones by Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Some moisture creeps into eastern 455 to generate a dry
thunderstorm or two over the mtns. This moisture eventually works
into eastern half of 470 on Monday but not enough to produce
thunderstorms. The next best chance for thunderstorms looks to
hold off until Friday.




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