Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 160122
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
622 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.UPDATE..DROPPED WIND ADVISORY AS SPEEDS HAVE LOWERED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AFTER DARK. MAY REMAIN GUSTY ON SUMMITS AND
PASSES. ESPECIALLY PEQUOP AND H.D.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 245 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES FAR ENOUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST TO CREATE A
DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF THE LKN CWFA. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF ELKO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF ELKO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING...PERHAPS BEING INHIBITED SOMEWHAT BY
THE CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND THROUGH NEVADA. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM SINKING INTO THE 20S WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN HOWEVER THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
TEENS FOR THE MOST PART...AND EVEN DRIER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. ANY
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500
FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A PROGRESSIVE FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID
30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO VALLEY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GROWING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE FOR THE
LONG TERM WITH A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT STORM BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND
MODELS RUNS STILL EXIST...HOWEVER GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE
CONVECTION FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT SUNDAY. ALL MODELS PICK UP THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BUT DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE FROM THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENT THAT INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM SNOW COVERED AREAS SO INCLUDED THEM FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH FOR SUNDAY AS GFS DEPICTS MORE CONVECTION AS THE TRAP
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BUILDS A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD
WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A STRONG STORM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA...HOWEVER WHAT TYPE IMPACT IS STILL IN DOUBT.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL CA LATE MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NV
LATE TUESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF DOESN`T EVEN BRING THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST...WRAPPING IT BACK TO THE
NORTH. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...WIDESPREAD PRECIP WOULD BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH AREAS OF PRECIP TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. NOW THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION DID EDGE TOWARD THE
GFS...AND THE TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW... SO FAVOR THE GFS EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN REGARD TO POPS AND
WINDS. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC BUT
NOT AS DEEP WHICH IS TYPICAL. DGEX AND GEM ARE ALSO SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL IS USED...THE WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK
SO STAY TUNE.

AVIATION...WINDY AND TURBULENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR
THIS PERIOD. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 10K FEET OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT SETTLES NEAR
KELY...A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98




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