Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 221132
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
332 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern will continue through much
of the week. Northern Nevada will continue to see light
accumulating snow with a few inches of snow possible. The weather
will dry out Thursday, but remain cold and blustery. Additional
storm systems will be possible as we head into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This morning through Friday. Light to moderate snow
continues across White Pine County associated with a lingering
frontal bndry. Decided to issue a winter weather advisory, since
the models show this bndry remaining in place through the day.
There is some uncertainty, but confidence was high enough to
issue.

For Humboldt and Northern Elko Counties, The HRRR/RAP models show
snow continuing to overspread the area and intensify through the
morning. Models have been in very good agreement with a potent H5
trof clipping northern Nevada and a widespread 2 to 5 inches of
snow are likely. The mountains could easily see 6 to 12 inches of
fresh powder with Lesser amounts possible in KWMC. There could be
localized heavier amounts due to convective banding.

As the system pulls away, upslope snow could get going across NE
Nevada. A couple of inches are possible late Wednesday night
through Thursday morning in the upslope favored regions.

On Thursday afternoon, enough instability exists for isolated to
scattered snow showers across northern Nevada. There could be some
light accumulations associated with heavier showers. Temps will be
much cooler with many locations struggling to reach the 30s.

Friday morning will be a wake up call. Temps will be in the
single digits and teens with some locations falling below zero. A
brief dirty ridge will build in before the next system, but temps
will remain cold.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday. A few light snow
showers under zonal flow are anticipated across far northern
Nevada Saturday before diminishing Saturday night. Models have
been consistent in bringing a robust end of the month winter
storm to the Great Basin beginning Sunday. Plenty of cold air
will be available for a likely all snow event across the CWA with
700 mb temperatures below -10C as far south as northern Nye county
barring any major shift in forecast storm track. Latest GFS run
is a bit more progressive with the system which would tone down
snow amounts a bit. Preliminary estimates of snow totals from
Sunday through Monday should approach advisory levels of 2 to 5
inches across much of the CWA with mountain totals near one foot.
Lingering snow showers on the back side of the system should
persist through Monday into Tuesday. Pacific ridge tries to build
back over northern CA and NV for the mid part of next week
allowing a quiet weather pattern to settle back into the Great
Basin region.

High temperatures day to day are not expected to vary
substantially and should remain in 30s through midweek. lows
teens and 20s are anticipated. Colder lows are likely locally
where snow cover is greatest.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow showers will bring MVFR or lower conditions at
times next 24 hours to KEKO and KWMC as a storm system moves
across the state, except at KTPH where VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Conditions are expected to improve at KELY
this afternoon and evening as snow begins to move out of White
Pine county. Mountain obscurations should be anticipated en route
across eastern and northern Nevada through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Cancelled the areal flood warnings, since snowmelt
and precip has ceased. Martin Creek has fallen below flood stage
and is no longer flooding. Regardless of the cancellations, flows
will remain high for several days. The Humboldt River will
continue to flood from Battle Mtn to WMC. Palisade and Carlin has
risen back into action stage, but no flooding is expected.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Northern
Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
Humboldt County-White Pine County.

&&

$$

94/93/93


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