Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 212141
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
241 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible over
eastern White Pine County into this evening. Thunderstorm activity
will expand both west and north each afternoon through the
weekend. By Monday afternoon most of northern and central NV will
have the potential for thunderstorm activity. Drier air gradually
moves in from the west Tuesday through mid-week diminishing
thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This evening through Sunday. High pressure dominates
the region today, with sunny skies across northwestern NV and
scattered cumulus clouds building over eastern NV. Moisture and
instability increase later this afternoon and evening across east-
central NV, with a slight chance of thunderstorms over eastern
White Pine County. High pressure builds in from the southeast
into Saturday bringing with it a gradual increase in moisture and
instability to portions of central and northeastern NV. With this
latest forecast package, have expanded the area of potential TS
activity for Saturday afternoon a little more to both the north
and west, which now includes portions of southeastern Elko County,
as well as southern Lander and northern Nye Counties. Best
chances for TS on Saturday however continue to be over the eastern
half of White Pine County. For now expecting only isolated
coverage to areas where storms develop. Little if any rain is
expected with storms on Saturday, with the exception of White Pine
County where a tenth of an inch or so of rain will be possible.

The northwesterly push of moisture and instability continues on
Sunday, with latest model guidance raising precipitable water
value up over an inch across portions of central and northern NV.
Wettest storms Sunday should be over Lander and Eureka Counties,
along with Elko County south of I-80 and west of the Ruby
Mountains.


.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday. Ongoing convection
Sunday afternoon likely to continue into Sunday night. Surface
dewpoints jump quickly into the the 40s with PWAT values climbing
to around 0.75 inches across northern NV to around 0.90 inches
across the central. Expect more isolated, drier storms across the
north to scattered with a mix of dry/wet across the central.
Monday, the monsoonal action gets going in full force with mid-
level moisture plume getting pulled well north and west into NV
with upper-level low off the northern Cali coast and Four Corners
high in place. Tuesday continues to be quite active as the low is
expected to begin to push onshore. This will increase steering
level flow and shear. Widespread convection again expected to
develop. With high PWAT values around an inch or more, moderate to
strong instability and slow storm motion could lead to an
enhanced risk heavy rain and the potential of flash flooding,
especially over recent burn scars, with the best set up on Monday.
Wednesday, the short wave shears northeast and drier air advects
into the region and the deeper monsoonal plume pushes east. More
convection expected across the eastern half of the CWA where
enough moisture and instability remains. With all the moisture and
expected cloud cover, relatively cooler temps for Monday through
Wednesday, with highs in the 80s. Drier and drier air works into
the state for Thursday and Friday and convection expected to shift
further east into Utah. Highs will rebound back up into the 90s
to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across the region. However,
widespread hazy skies from California and Nevada fires could
limit slant visibility, particularly over KWMC, but will keep
P6SM at all TAF sites. Afternoon wind gust 14-18 knots possible.
Expect afternoon cu buildups tomorrow afternoon with
thunderstorms in the vicinity of KELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms are possible over eastern
White Pine County this evening. Storm activity is expected to
expand north and west each day through Monday with storms
transitioning from briefly dry, to wet. Best chances for TS on
Saturday will be over White Pine County. By Sunday most areas
south of I80 may see showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to
possibly heavy rains over and near zone 454 where precipitable
water values climb over to over an inch, while dew points increase
to around 50 degrees. Overnight RH recoveries will begin to have
decent improvements over Central NV Saturday night. Recoveries
continue to improve Sunday night and Monday night across most of
central and northern NV as mid and surface moisture increases.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

96/99/99/96


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