Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 261827
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.