Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 242354 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE ALONG MAINLY
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...AFTERNOON WEATHER HAS BEHAVED PRETTY WELL SO
FAR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WOODLAND HILLS IS THE WINNER SO FAR WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 104. PLENTY OF OTHER READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 IN
THE VALLEYS AND AV...WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LAX-DAG ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ONLY WEAKLY ONSHORE BUT ENOUGH TO GET
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
CHECK FOR THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE DOWNTOWN LA HAS REACHED ITS MAX OF 91
AND IS NOW COOLING DOWN A BIT IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE. ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SOME VERY SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS HAS FORMED RIGHT
ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES...A DECENT INDICATOR THAT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SBA
COUNTY CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HAPPENINGS OF NOTE WILL BE
THE BELOW ADVISORY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST...BUT EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN CHARGE OF THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TOMORROW TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL COOL OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DIP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MODELS HINT
AT A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION BUT DID NOT BITE OFF ON THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE LA COUNTY COAST JUST YET. THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THE NAM INCREASES THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO LONG BEACH
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM
FRIDAY`S HIGHS...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DEPENDING ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...TO LEAVE THE GOING TRW
CHANCES ON SUNDAY UNCHANGED. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HINTS AT A
KICKER ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO CONTINUE WITH THE GOING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT AT ALL A SLAMDUNK AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MARINE LAYER NEXT WEEK
BUT KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW COASTAL
AREAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2345Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DISTRICT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AT KSMX TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING CIGS AT KLAX...KLGB...AND KOXR.
 ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 600 FEET ACROSS LA
BASIN. IF ANY CIGS WERE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE OTHER COASTAL
SITES...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR DUE TO
SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
EDDY CIRCULATION WILL BRING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
CIGS TO KLAX. IF A CIG WERE TO DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE
INVERSION.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...24/230 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
SAL AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

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