Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 161150
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK
TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE COASTS AND
INTERIOR AS THEY WERE YDY BUT THE VLYS WILL COOL DUE TO THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

LOOK FOR A SIMILAR MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT. BUT THE
CLEARING THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN
A FEW BEACHES WITH NO CLEARING DUE TO THE FACT THE A WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND ADDITIONAL
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALL MDLS FCST A BIG BROAD TROF TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A SUPER DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH ALL
THE VLYS AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. SLOW TO NO CLEARING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE VLYS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A LITTLE RIDGING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SMOOSH THE MARINE
LAYER DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARM UP FOR THE VLYS AND
INTERIOR. THE COASTS WILL REMAIN COOL.

A BROAD PRETTY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTS AND MANY
VLYS. GRADIENTS RELAX AND CLEARING SHOULD BE QUICKER. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM SOME MORE WITH HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAKER SEABREEZE.

MORE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS.

THE EC AND THE GFS NO AGREE THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST WENT FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND MUCH
COOLER SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS MARINE
LAYER BUT MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FCST FOR THIS
TROF EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1200Z

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS FOR COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS AFFECT MUCH OF THE COAST AND SOME
OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LIFR N OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND IFR TO LOW MVFR FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT THE LAYER TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN DURING THE EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. 40% CHANCE
STRATUS WILL AFFECT THE SAN FERNANDO AND SALINAS VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE 17Z THIS MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
STRATUS RETURN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY DISSIPATE +/- 2
HR FROM TAF TIME OF 17Z. 40% CHANCE OF LOW CIGS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








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