Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 230603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 12Z NE WINDS WITH A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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