Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 032040
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

Focus remains precip chances thru tonight.

MCV remnants across cntl MO shud continue to dissipate this evening.
The SHRA shud continue to slowly move ewd some this afternoon into
the evening while the more intense area of TSRA continues to sink
SSE. That area shud start building more swd than SE.

Focus then turns TSRA activity overnight. Have generally trended twd
the GFS soln, tho other solns have similar ideas. Expect a complex
across srn NEB/nrn KS to extend into nrn MO/srn IA late tonight into
Thurs morning. Main question will be how far E this complex builds.
Believe that as the upper trof over MN continues to lift newd, the
weak sfc fnt will gradually sag swd. As the LLJ veers tonight, this
fnt shud provide a focus for TSRA. The main question will be how far
S these TSRA develop/propagate.

Pulled PoPs further S compared to the prev forecast and is some
concern these PoPs are still not far enuf S. With little to focus on
and given that many of these features will be impacted by
convection, have kept PoPs in the chance category for now.
Hopefully, timing/location can be fine tuned with future updates.

As for temps tonight, kept warm trends aoa warmest guidance due to
cloud cover and generally sly winds. Only exception is across ern
Ozarks region where low lying areas may decouple allowing more
cooling.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

Not many changes from the prev forecast overall.

With upper air pattern becoming more amplified and upper ridge
building into the region, warming trend is expected to continue thru
this weekend. However, with RA chances each day over at least some
portion of the CWA, any storms and outflow bndys will complicate the
temp forecast.

Mdls are in an agreement bringing an upper trof and associated cdfnt
swd into the region on Mon, possibly thru the CWA by Tues. That
said, am not certain this fnt will push as far swd as currently
advertised by mdls. Have therefore kept low PoPs behind the fnt but
did trend cooler for Tues and esp on Wed.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

Dying MCS continues to track southeastward this afternoon but feel
it will not reach STL metro area or KUIN, so kept these tafs dry. As
for KCOU, will see scattered showers through 01z Thursday.
Otherwise, main issue is the stratus that has been advecting north
across the forecast area. Cigs are beginning to lift a bit, but
remain MVFR, so kept MVFR mention through 20z-21z, then scatter
lower cigs out with lingering mid and high clouds. As for winds,
to remain light and from the southeast to south through forecast
period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Dying MCS continues to track southeastward this afternoon but feel
it will not reach STL metro area, so kept taf dry. Otherwise,
main issue is the stratus that has been advecting north across the
metro area. Cigs are beginning to lift a bit, but remain MVFR,
so kept MVFR mention through 20z, then scatter lower cigs out
with lingering mid and high clouds. As for winds, to remain light
and from the southeast to south through forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  68  86 /  10  30  30  50
Quincy          64  81  67  82 /  30  50  60  60
Columbia        65  83  67  85 /  40  40  30  50
Jefferson City  65  85  67  87 /  40  30  30  50
Salem           62  82  66  85 /  10  10  20  50
Farmington      58  83  62  86 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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