Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 130530
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2013
An upper level storm system in Arizona will move east into the
central plains by late Friday afternoon. Ahead of this system there
will be the chance of showers at several terminals through 09z
tonight. In addition TEMPO MVFR ceilings and visibilities in fog are
expected at most terminals from 09z to 14z Friday. Winds overnight
will generally be south to southeast at less than 10 knots. Breezy
to windy west winds are expected to develop by early Friday
afternoon at the terminals with VFR conditions prevailing.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO REMOVE HIGH WIND WATCH SUNDAY...
WV imagery shows the upper trough now centered over SoCal, w/a
healthy fetch of subtropical moisture ahead of it streaming thru a
weak ridge centered over Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of the
tough has resulted in -shra across srn NM...but area radars and Q2
data suggest precip amounts are light. All models are in good
agreement in bringing the heavier shra into the Guadalupes/SE NM
after 00z, before shifting the focus south into the lwr Trans Pecos
Meanwhile, the upper trough is set to open and begin shearing out,
moving thru SE NM/West Texas Friday. Latest sfc analysis shows a
leeside trough already developing ahead of this feature, extending
from the panhandles north along the Front Range thru CO and beyond.
This is forecast to drift south into the S, Plains by 00Z Saturday,
resulting in increasing SW-W sfc flow Friday. Pattern is such that
a marginal high wind event will be possible in the Guadalupes Friday
afternoon. Latest NAM generates a nice mtn wave signature w/the
trough, but brings it in a little early. Also, we`d like to see H7
pressure gradients packed a little tighter, than what`s currently in
the models. For these reasons, we`ll opt to go w/a watch attm.
Should this pan out, however, advisories may be needed on adjacent
W/this downslope flow will come a big warmup, although forecast
soundings and H85 temps suggest the MAV guidance may be a little
overwrought. In fact, past performance and temp fields suggest
staying on the cooler side of guidance in the short term, i.e.,
closet to the MET. This is just as well for Saturday, as a cold
front comes thru the region Friday night as a secondary trough
follows the first, knocking afternoon highs down into the 50s. Temps
will then begin to warm slowly into next week under cool NW flow
aloft, breaking above normal Monday and remaining there into the
extended. The next major trough will approach the region by
midweek, transitioning flow aloft to zonal.
Friday/Saturday, this trough will move thru the region, bringing
much colder air into the area. The ECMWF is faster and drier, and
the GFS is slower/wetter. Stay tuned.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday morning through Friday afternoon FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday morning through Friday afternoon FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.