Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 050518
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

It appears that (finally) the wintry precipitation which impacted
much of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico has ended. Large
scale lift and moisture associated with a passing positively-
tilted long wave trough has moved east ahead and is currently
impacting north Texas south across the Hill Country. As a result,
aviation impacts to the Dallas/Fort Worth terminals will be
significant. Circling back, predominant MVFR ceilings, with a few
areas of IFR associated with some light snow at KFST early, will
prevail through at least 15Z (0900 CST/0800 MST).

The wild card in this TAF package is the timing of the scattering
of this MVFR deck. Models have been pretty consistent in indicating
a break in the clouds around 18Z (noon CST/1100 am MST) area wide.
However, as we`ve seen in recent winter weather events hereabouts,
it is hard to dislodge a shallow arctic air mass, and as such clearing
may not occur until mid afternoon. Holding in the cloud deck into
the afternoon will have some impact on area terminals with runway
operations, deicing, etc. as temperatures will be slow to rise
above freezing.  In any event, the area should be clear by late
afternoon. Could see an increase in cirrus late in the TAF period,
but am not going to worry about SCT250 tonight.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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