Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 252314
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
614 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There are few cells around the PB/SE NM, but are not expected to
impact TAF sites. Otherwise E-SE wind overnight less than 10kts.
SHRA/TSRA will be a little more favored later Tue PM but there is
too much uncertainty ATTP to include in TAFs, PROB30 groups may
eventually be needed though.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorm activity moving southwest into the
northern tier of counties in the CWA.

Looks like the models do not have a good (or any) handle on the
convection moving southwest into the CWA. There was convection
last night to the north...the outflow boundary looks like it moved
south and is serving as the focus for the convective development.

A weak inverted trough will get trapped between two centers of the
subtropical ridge. One piece of the ridge will become centered
over Southern Nevada and the other piece will be along the
Southeast US Coast. Whereas the models are having difficulty with
the details including any boundaries from convection it looks like
the whole CWA will have the possibility of isolated/scattered
convection right thru Thursday. Temps will "cool" to near normal
for a change.

The ridge will begin to reassert itself starting Friday and
continuing thru the weekend. This will confine any thunderstorm
activity to the higher terrain to the south and west in upslope
flow and intense heating. Temps will also edge up to above normal
values by next weekend.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  92  72  94 /  20  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       73  97  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  95  76  97 /  10  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  94  72  94 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  69  89 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          69  93  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
Marfa                          63  89  62  87 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           75  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  20
Odessa                         77  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           76  97  73  97 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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