Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 261727 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1227 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18Z issuance...VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon
and evening. Southerly winds will remain 10-15 kt through the
afternoon with occasional higher gust. Winds will diminish tonight.
Low level moisture begins to advect in from the west by daybreak
Saturday which could result in periods of MVFR cigs over SE MS/SW
AL, including MOB and BFM, during the early to mid morning hours.
South to southwest winds will be a little lighter tomorrow, generally
less than 10 kt. 34/JFB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1103 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Shortwave ridging build across the area from the west
will result in abundant sunshine through the rest of the day. 12z
sounding from New Orleans showed precipitable waters less than an
inch with dry air throughout the column. Despite southerly winds,
this dry air has allowed dewpoints to drop a few degrees lower
than guidance, especially inland. That was the only real
adjustment made to the forecast which results in slightly lower
humidity levels. Temps on track to reach the mid to upper 80s away
from the coast with low 80s at the beaches. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12Z issuance...VFR conditions through 27.12z. Winds will be
mostly south to southwest increasing to 8 to 12 knots by late
morning and early afternoon with slightly higher gusts by late
afternoon and early evening then diminishing to 5 knots or less by
late this evening and overnight. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...Broad upper ridge
stretching from the western gulf to the mid Mississippi river
valley will slowly shift east across the lower Mississippi river
valley and northern gulf states through 12z Sat. Near the sfc high
pressure over the north central and eastern gulf stretching north
over the se conus will build through tonight in response to the
upper ridge approaching from the west. With this pattern expect a
light to moderate onshore flow near the sfc today and tonight
leading to better low level moisture return across much of the
forecast area through 12z Sat. With plenty of sunshine and
increased subsidense in the boundary layer expect good daytime
heating inland leading to a moderate onshore flow at the surface
by late in the day. With the increase in moisture in the boundary
layer expect some fair weather cumulus for most areas by late this
afternoon. Surface temps will be moderated somewhat especially
near the coast and over the lower half of the forecast area due to
the increased onshore flow. For now no significant fog is
expected overnight though will be monitored closely. 32/ee

High temps today will be slightly warmer compared to yesterday
climbing to near seasonal levels for most locations, ranging from
the to mid to upper 80s for most inland areas and the lower 80s near
the immediate coast. Lows tonight will continue to be near seasonal
averages ranging from the lower to middle 60s inland and the upper
60s to near 70 along the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...Broad upper ridge
continues across the Gulf Coast before weakening and shifting east
on Sunday. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will also progress
eastward. This will allow a southerly flow to develop on Sunday
with increasing Gulf moisture moving into the area. Much of the
area remains dry on Saturday with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected on Sunday as deep layer moisture
increases. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will
range from the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast. /13

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A weak cold front will move
into the southeastern states early next week and stall near the
Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. The combination of daytime
heating, the stalled boundary and plenty of deep layer moisture
with precipitable water values near 1.75 inches will lead to the
development of scattered to locally numerous showers and storms
each day. The showers and thudnerstorms will be most numerous
during the afternoon and early evening hours with a decreasing
trend overnight. Temperatures will generally be near seasonable
levels through the period. /13

MARINE...High pressure will continue to build over the eastern and
north central gulf through early Mon then begin to shift east late
Mon into Tue in response to a weak upper trof approaching from the
west. With this pattern a light to moderate southerly flow will
continue over the marine area through early next week with higher
winds and slightly better seas occurring during the afternoon and
evening hours mainly due to afternoon heating well inland. A weak
frontal boundary is still expected to approach from the north late
Mon into Tue as the upper trof approaches from the west, disippating
and becoming diffuse mainly inland north of the coast by early Tue.
Rain chances increase with pattern with the best coverage occurring
Mon afternoon through Tue morning. A light onshore continues with
this pattern later in the week as high pressure becomes better
established over the north central gulf and se states by midweek.




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