480
FXUS64 KMOB 041810
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
110 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A scattered to locally broken cumulus field with bases mostly
between 3-4 kft AGL will extend across our forecast area this
afternoon. Isolated SHRA/TSRA are developing across coastal
portions of far southwest AL and the western FL panhandle along a
developing seabreeze as of 18Z. Expect additional isolated to
scattered convection to develop further inland this afternoon into
early this evening as the seabreeze advances northward. Localized
MVFR ceilings and/or MVFR to IFR visibility reductions will be
possible in and near convection that develops through this
afternoon, along with brief gusty winds. Patchy to areas of fog
and very low ceilings will likely develop again late tonight into
early Sunday morning with reductions to LIFR to VLIFR possible
across much of our region. /21

&&

.NEAR TERM UPDATE...
(Now through this afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The forecast looks to be on track this afternoon. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are starting to develop along a coastal seabreeze
as of 1230 PM CDT. We expect additional isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop further inland as the seabreeze
advances northward and as a weak shortwave trough moves over our
region this afternoon into early this evening. Shear still looks
to remain weak over our forecast area this afternoon, so storms
that develop will be pulse in nature. There could be an isolated
strong storm or two capable of producing brief strong/gusty winds.
Highs are generally on track to range in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees over inland areas, and generally in the lower to mid 80s
along the coast. Pensacola Beach lifeguards reported moderate
strength rip currents this morning. The MODERATE rip current risk
along area beaches looks to be on track today. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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