Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 011402 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
INTO THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS SLIGHT RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC RIDGE ENOUGH
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD). SKIES PARTLY TO
OCNLY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS... EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S LIKELY. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS EAST FROM OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE PLAINS THEN MID MISS RIVER VALLEY AS
A CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE NORTHERN MISS
RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HEADS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW
DEEPENS ONCE IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE FA...THIS IS
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THUS AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY SERIOUS
INCREASE IN FLOW OVER THE FA FROM OFF THE GULF (WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIMIT WIND SHEAR AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY). AM STILL
EXPECTING THIS PASSAGE TO BE IN THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AROUND 2000 L/KG DURING THE DAY FRIDAY)
FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. GUIDANCE IS STILL LIMITS
0-3KM WIND SHEAR TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 M^2/S^2. WITH THE STILL
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
FA CLEARS OUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
COOLEST...ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES THAN THE GFS. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE COOLED
DOWN FROM YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. AM CONTINUING TO
BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AS FEEL THE ANSWER LIES IN THE
MIDDLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COOL-DOWN CONTINUES AS THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA(WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVER THEN EAST OF THE FA). THE COOLING TREND FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS CONTINUES...WITH EVEN THE GFS ADVERTISING TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA. WITH TEMPS DROPS THIS RUN
BEING JUST ONE RUN...HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO GO BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER
GFS FOR THE RESULTANT TEMPS. ALSO OF NOTE...BY MONDAY MORN...WITH THE
CENTRE OF THE SURFACE HIGH BEING EAST OF THE FA...A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEGUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY...
WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND PUSHING A RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILST THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE ENERGY REMAINING...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT...REMAINING NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. EITHER SCENARIO
IS POSSIBLE...SO HAVE BLENDED THE COOLER ECMWF WITH THE WARMER GFS
FOR THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THAT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE ECMWF...THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE....SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
01/12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO ONLY
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS...BUT ABOVE 3000 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST OFF THE US ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BECOMING A
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ACCOMPANIED WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  73  86  76  84 /  05  20  30  40  60
PENSACOLA   86  71  84  76  84 /  05  10  30  30  60
DESTIN      83  72  82  77  82 /  00  10  30  30  60
EVERGREEN   88  67  89  74  82 /  00  10  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  88  69  88  74  83 /  20  20  50  50  60
CAMDEN      89  66  89  74  83 /  05  10  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   87  65  87  74  84 /  00  10  30  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


12/16








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