Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 210304 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1004 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


.UPDATE...Have updated to remove pops for the remainder of the
night and also to lower overnight lows slightly based on the
latest trends.  Made other minor adjustments. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...MVFR conditions in isolated showers and storms will
mainly affect extreme southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi
through the early evening hours, with convection dissipating later
this evening. May still see some MVFR conditions in patchy fog
again late tonight, followed by isolated to potentially scattered
showers and storms redeveloping again during the day on Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Convection will rapidly
decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some
patchy fog will be possible late tonight, especially in areas that
receive rain. Lows tonight will fall into the low 70s inland to
mid 70s along the coast. The best deep layer moisture on Thursday
will reside near the coast with slightly drier air inland. This
will result in the highest rain chances (scattered) near the coast
with isolated coverage inland. The best coverage will be during
the afternoon and early evening hours during with peak daytime
heating. Outside of any cooling from showers and storms, hot and
very muggy conditions will continue. Highs will be in the upper
80s to near 90 inland to mid 80s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...An upper
level ridge extending from the central Texas to the Great Lakes
region will remain nearly stationary through the near term. A
cutoff upper low pressure area is expected to develop out of an
upper level trough over the southeast states and northeastern
Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning. The upper low is then expected
to slowly drift west over the forecast area throughout the day
Saturday. A surface ridge across the eastern conus and Gulf of
Mexico will also remain intact as Hurricane Jose remains stalled
off the coast of New England, and Hurricane Maria tracks east of
Caribbean Islands. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the short term, mainly during
the afternoon and early evening hours during maximum instability.
Patchy fog should form again each night across the forecast area
after midnight into the early morning hours.

Low temperatures each night will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s. High temperatures will be in upper 80s to lower 90s inland
areas, with mid 80s along the immediate coastal sections. /22

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The upper low over the
region will shift more to the west through the long term period
filling and become less organized Mon through Tue. As a result
Less coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
beginning Sun continuing through Tue. The threat for strong to
severe weather still remains low. Both high and low temperatures
will be been near seasonal levels with Little change in the
humidity levels also expected. 32/ee

MARINE...High pressure centered over the marine area through
tonight will break down by early Thursday, but a general ridge
of high pressure will continue to extend into the marine area from
the northeast through the weekend. Light and variable winds
expected tonight, before becoming primarily light to moderate
northeast to east Thursday through the end of the period. Little
change in seas over the next few days. /13




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