Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 292343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
643 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
30.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS EVENING. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR THE FORMATION OF MIST (BR) REDUCING VSBY TO BETWEEN 3 AND
5 STATUTE MILES BETWEEN 30.10-13Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
EVENING. /10

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ISOLATED THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY
A MID LEVEL VORT MAX SLIPPING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. EASTERN
AREAS HAVE HAD LESS COVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION LOWERS TO 10% OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH MID/UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL
AGAIN BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 CLOSER TO INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND LOWER
90S ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. /13

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A WET...SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE DAY WITH SURFACE
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERLYING THE AREA WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THE MAIN
THREAT ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MS -
SOUTHWEST AL...DEFINING TOO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
POOL OVERLYING THE REGION...EXTRA LIFT AIDED BY SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION COULD LEAD TO NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUST POTENTIAL IN AN
OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE LIGHT SHEER ENVIRONMENT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE H5 LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF AND BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD...THIS DRIFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE POOL TO EXPAND
FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...TAKING ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WITH IT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND NEAR
THE COAST. /08 JW

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEABREEZE AND NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  40  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  70  86  70 /  10  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      74  85  75  82  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   67  90  67  89  68 /  20  20  20  30  40
WAYNESBORO  67  86  66  86  66 /  20  40  30  50  60
CAMDEN      67  87  66  89  68 /  20  20  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   65  91  68  88  69 /  10  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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