Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 200034 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 21.00z. Expect
increasing mid to high clouds through the forecast period. Winds
will be mostly southeast less than 5 knots through 20.15z
increasing to 8 to 12 knots through 21.00z. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...On the weather maps, a
positive tilt southern stream long-wave upper trof extends from
the Lower MS River Valley, southwest into TX. Within the trof
axis, a thickening shield of clouds was present and gradually
moving east. At the surface, high pressure axis over the deep
south tonight is progged to move east, with its axis aligned more
over the southeast by Saturday. Tonight not as cold. The upper
trof axis moves east over the central Gulf coast during the day
Saturday with more cloud cover. Although some weak layer lift is
noted in the weather models on Saturday, deep layer moisture
appears too limited to mention rain chances with pops only 10%.
Daytime highs Saturday close to climate normals. /10

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Surface high
pressure will move slowly east across the area into the western
Atlantic on Saturday. A light southerly wind flow will develop on
the western periphery of the high, bringing increasing moisture
and the potential of patchy fog to the area Sunday night. An upper
shortwave will move across the Gulf coast Saturday night with
little fanfare as the atmosphere remains dry. A cold front
approaching the area on Monday will bring rain chances back to the
area along with a slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm. The
precipitation will end from west to east Monday evening as the
cold front moves east of the area. Temps will moderate to above
normal through the period. /13

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Dry conditions follow
on Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area. A fast moving
shortwave moving across the Gulf may bring some rain to mainly
the marine area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Have included some
small rain chances for this time period. However, the ECMWF is
much weaker with this feature and keeps conditions dry. Rain
chances begin to increase again late in the period as another cold
front approaches. /13

MARINE...Next cold front approaches from the west on Monday
bringing an increased chance of showers and embedded storms across
the marine area. Ahead of the front, a more established onshore
wind allows a gradual build in seas late in the weekend continuing
into Monday. Another potential concern is with warm, moist Gulf
air flowing atop cooler water near the coast, dense fog formation
over the nearshore waters could pose some problems late this
weekend. /10




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