Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 211845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN...GENERALLY ALONG A CINCINNATI TO NASHVILLE LINE. THIS
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AROUND SUNSET...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND IT. WINDS
MAY REMAIN PERSISTENT ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SINCE WATER TEMPS REMAIN WARM...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT MAINLY ALONG THE
WATERWAYS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS
FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH MINS FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. ON MONDAY...BOTH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAXES AND LOOK
REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SAME STORY AS YESTERDAY...
VERY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL LEAD TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR NORTH ALL WEEK STARTS MOVING FURTHER EAST...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL ADJUST SATURDAYS POPS DOWN FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS IT IS
GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME TO BUILD BACK IN OUR MOISTURE. SUNDAY IS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN
NOW BUT POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. AGAIN...
EXPECT SEVERAL MORNINGS AND EVENINGS TO HAVE A FALL-LIKE FEEL TO THEM
AS WE START THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  77  52  79 /  30   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  74  48  75 /  30   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  74  48  75 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  72  43  72 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR


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