Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 301855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BASED ON THE SUBTLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT SEEN IN THE
SURFACE OBS. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCT CU
FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT AS OF YET THE RADAR REMAINS SILENT.
STILL THINK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. OVERALL THOUGH...THINK
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY AND REMAIN QUITE WARM/HUMID IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING...THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND BRINGS IN
A DRIER AIR MASS. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT FOR THE BLUE MOON WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES.
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES TOMORROW...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RH VALUES!

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING
INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH
CHANCE ARE SLIGHT AND COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED. MODEL CONFIDENCE
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE TREND IS TOWARDS
TRANSITING INTO A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PATTERN FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  62  85 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/MJB


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