Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 181727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
345 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Expect drying today with high temperatures rising to
near normal. There will be some clearing by tonight which will
allow temperatures to cool into the teens and 20s while there
could be a few places in the higher valleys of southwest Montana
that dip to the upper single digits. Freezing fog will be possible
across northwest Montana valleys Sunday morning.

A plume of moisture will move into the region by Sunday evening
and continue through Monday. The biggest impact will be snow to
the mountain passes along the Idaho and Montana border Sunday
night. Then there is the possibility of freezing rain due to the
fact that the snow levels will be rising pretty fast by daybreak
Monday morning and low temperatures will be near freezing.
Confidence is low on how widespread the freezing rain will be. It
could be that while air temperatures rise above freezing in some
locations, ground or sidewalk temperatures could be hovering around
freezing allowing for a light glaze to form. Showers continue on
Monday with snow levels near 5,000 feet.

A warmer, yet unsettled, weather pattern is still expected to
dominant the Western U.S. during this upcoming week. This weather
pattern should produce periods of valley rain and mountain snow
this week with a subtropic moisture source. Snow levels may even
rise above most mountain passes during the middle of the week. The
warmest day of the week currently looks to be on Thanksgiving
ahead of a cold front. The cold front may pass late Thursday and
into Friday, so Friday looks to be cooler with the potential to
see impacts from snow depending on how much moisture is available.


.AVIATION...Stratus has overtaken most of north-central Idaho and
western Montana and model cross sections show this cloud cover to
remain at least through the morning. Light snow is also falling in
portions of the high terrain and throughout the Seeley/Swan which
is forecast to decrease during this morning. Weak high pressure
building into the region will help decrease cloud cover from south
to north mainly during this afternoon, but northwest Montana may
remain in lowered cloud cover for most of the day. Gusty terrain
winds continue for today and the strongest winds remain along the
divide. The tight gradient along the divide is forecast to
maintain so winds will continue through the weekend.



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