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000
FXUS65 KMSO 241938
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
138 PM MDT Fri May 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Several showers have been developing this
afternoon all across western Montana and north-central Idaho as
another spoke of energy/moisture sweeps across the region. The
atmosphere will be unstable enough to support a few thunderstorms
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Once the sun dip below the horizon, then shower activity will
decrease slowly with some clearing periods later tonight and early
Saturday morning. A southwesterly flow aloft will continue to
provide moist, unstable conditions throughout the weekend with a
subtle warming trend. Looking forward to some nice morning
conditions with some sunshine, followed by increasing clouds and
showers during the afternoon. Once again, there is a chance of
thunder each afternoon, mainly between 2pm and 8pm. Overall, very
typical weather for this time of year in the Northern Rockies.

The wet weather continues next week with daily showers and
thunderstorms. Monday and Tuesday the upper level flow is from the
southwest bringing in warmer moist air to help fuel showers and
thunder storms, however, the low level flow is weak at best and
non-existent at times. So clouds and showers will develop over the
mountains and generally move very slowly. Wednesday looks to be
the most unstable with the potential for strong thunderstorms.

Wednesday night low level flow from the southeast will tap into
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty in the models make
it difficult to place where the moisture will impact, but there is
potential for another heavy rain event along the Continental
Divide mid-week next week.


&&

.AVIATION...A weather disturbance passing across northern Idaho
and western Montana will bring enhanced shower activity to the
area through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening
hours. A few thunderstorms are also possible. All airfields will
be impacted by showers and mountains will be obscured at times in
clouds and showers through the evening. Partial clearing will be
taking place later tonight and favorable weather conditions can be
expected Saturday morning. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will be developing once again Saturday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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