Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 041013
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
413 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers currently moving through northwest Montana
and over the Continental Divide will continue to push northeast
this morning. Although these showers may have briefly suppressed
smoke, it looks like smoky skies will linger for the next 24 hrs
as southwest flow brings in more smoke from Oregon and California
fires. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again this
afternoon, mainly south of the I-90 corridor. Lightning, brief
moderate rain, and gusty winds will be the main threats with any
showers. Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees cooler than
Monday in north central Idaho, and about 10 degrees cooler than
Monday in Montana.

On Wednesday, forecast models have come into good agreement
bringing a round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms
through southwest Montana and north central Idaho. The best
daytime rain accumulations (a couple tenths of an inch under
storms) look to be southeast of a Grangeville, ID to Seeley Lake,
MT line. Northwest Montana looks to miss out on most of this
moisture, but will see breezy overnight winds into Thursday
morning as the system passes.

Relatively dry and mild conditions return to the Northern Rockies
on Thursday, with strong westerly flow aloft. Anticipate gusty
westerly winds throughout the day on Thursday. High pressure is
expected to strengthen on Thursday night, with some impressive
overnight cooling across the region. Dry and mild conditions will
continue through Friday.

Southwesterly flow aloft will once again develop over the Northern
Rockies by midday Saturday and last through early next week.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible
during this time, however no extended range model is indicating a
very impressive scenario of widespread precipitation for the
region.

&&

.AVIATION....Showers currently over KGPI and KBTM will move out
this morning. Despite the rain, some visibility reductions due to
smoke can still be expected today. The afternoon will bring
breezes in the 10 kt range with occasional gusts to around 20 kts.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms do not look widespread, but
KBTM, KMSO, and KSMN all have the off chance of seeing a shower.
Lightning and gusty winds will be the main concerns with any
storms that do form.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$


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