Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011755
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE...DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE RETURN OF A MARINE
LAYER GREATER THAN 1500 FEET IN DEPTH HAS RESULTED IN LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES AND DOWN INTO THE
MONTEREY/SALINAS REGION. DO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO RETREAT TOWARD
THE COAST BY LATE MORNING...WHILE SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE
CLOUD COVER HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND REMOVE
PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY...YET INLAND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE AIR MASS LOFT
BEGINS TO COOL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY INLAND AND COASTAL SPOTS OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM AROUND SAN FRANCISCO
SOUTHWARD THROUGH COASTAL MONTEREY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS
THE FLOW FROM THE NNW WHILE THE MARINE LAYER IS CLOSE TO 1000
FEET. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO STAY MOSTLY ALONG THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY GOING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. TEMPS TODAY ARE
STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER RIGHT NOW AND HIGHS SHOULD END
UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAY ON MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS.
HIGHS AT THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH INLAND
SPOTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROF
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO CANADA WHILE A RIDGE STAYS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
ONLY CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE FROM DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW MORNING OF THIS WEEK ALONG THE COAST.

NO WEATHER RELATED ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT LEAST THE NEXT TEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE
PREVAILING OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE IN MONTEREY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVER THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH A 2000 FOOT DEEP
MARINE LAYER MAY KEEP MONTEREY IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1400 AND
1600Z. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC010 IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT FOR THE
OAKLAND TERMINALS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY AT KMRY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF VFR BETWEEN 2000 AND 2300Z.
VFR IS ANTICIPATED AT KSNS BEGINNING 1900Z. IF STRATUS DOES MIX
OUT AN EARLY RETURN IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO REACH 8 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 18
KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE WINDS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


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