Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 221144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
444 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
COMPRESSED TO AROUND 1500 FEET PER THE FT ORD PROFILER. THE MARINE
LAYER HAS BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY BUT A SECONDARY
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL HILLS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO WARM ON MONDAY THEN WARM UP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND COOLING WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS MUCH
SHALLOWER THIS MORNING THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING...WITH A DEPTH
AROUND 1500 FEET. THE CURRENT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS IN BOTH MONTEREY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AS WELL AS THE
INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CLEAR SKY EVIDENT AROUND
KSFO THIS MORNING. THE SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
EARLIER STRATUS BURN OFF THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF CIGS BKN-OVC008 BETWEEN 1400 AND 1600Z THIS
MORNING. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS OVC006 ARE EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF BY 1700Z THIS MORNING AT KMRY. AT KSNS OVC012 IS ANTICIPATED
TO BURN OFF BY 1800Z. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:33 AM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL...GENERATED BY TROPICAL
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

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