Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 252330
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
430 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GREATEST COOLING
EXPECTED AT THE COAST. NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE BAY AREA AND
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE RAPIDLY TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AT THIS HOUR YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO LOWER
70S IN THE HILLS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST AREAS TONIGHT
OTHER THAN MONTEREY AND THE MONTEREY COAST...SO IT WILL BE A GREAT
NIGHT TO BE OUTSIDE WATCHING THE STARS.

850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING 24
DEGREES CELSIUS SUNDAY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA.
HOWEVER...ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS REACHING 588DM OVER THE SF BAY AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE CENTER
SLIDES SOUTH WEST ON SUNDAY ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE TO STABLE FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY GRADIENT FROM ACV
TO SFO INCREASED TO 6.3 MB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MONTEREY BAY DURING THE EVENING AND THEN FARTHER
NORTH UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
DECREASES. BUT ONLY PATCHY LATE NIGHT CIGS EXPECTED INTO SF BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLE
PATCHY IFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL. WNW WINDS AROUND
18 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. MODERATE-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH 03Z WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY 04Z. CONFIDENCE LOW-MEDIUM. IFR/LIFR CIGS
LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR VIS DEVELOPING AS WELL. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JULY 25TH ALONG
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED. * SIGNIFIES THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL YEARS THE RECORD WAS SET.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION................TEMP/YEAR
 KENTFIELD...............103/1975
 SAN RAFAEL.............. 98/1975
 NAPA....................101/1975
 SAN FRANCISCO........... 82/1973
 SFO AIRPORT............. 91/1973
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)...... 97/1973
 OAKLAND AIRPORT......... 92/1973
 LIVERMORE...............111/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD........... 90/2006
 SAN JOSE................ 99/1975
 GILROY..................109/2006

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION................TEMP/YEAR
 MONTEREY................ 83/2006
 SANTA CRUZ.............. 97/1973
 SALINAS................. 85/1975
 SALINAS AIRPORT......... 87/1973
 KING CITY...............104/1973

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:17 AM PDT FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
EXCEPT MODERATE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: SIMS

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