Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 281156
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
456 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for today
and Saturday as a weak upper trough approaches the northern
California coast. Even so, most inland areas will remain warm. A
gradual warming trend is then forecast from Sunday through much of
next week as a high pressure ridge strengthens over the western
United States. Thus, expect a prolonged period of very warm
temperatures inland. Mild conditions will persist near the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:15 AM PDT Friday...Satellite imagery shows
less inland low cloud coverage compared to 24 hours ago although
stratus is extending well down the Salinas valley at this time.
The marine layer depth is more shallow - around 1000 feet deep per
the Fort Ord profiler, and surface pressure gradients are about
the same onshore with 2.3 mb from SFO to SAC, but much stronger
from north-to-south with 5.4 mb from ACV to SFO. This type of
gradient pattern lends itself to more clouds pushing into the
Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley and fewer clouds working into the
San Francisco Bay.

Meanwhile, a weak upper level trough is forecast to approach the
coast today which is expected to deepen the marine layer a little
today and tomorrow. Inland locations are expected to see similar
warmth to yesterday, with plenty of upper 80s and 90s for highs
today. Near-coastal areas could see a couple of degrees of
cooling depending on the strength of the sea breeze this
afternoon. Saturday is expected to be slightly cooler as the weak
trough moves through.

A strong ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Rocky
Mountain states will build and gradually shift to the west
beginning on Sunday and through the coming week. This will bring
warmer temperatures to the district through the remainder of the
forecast period. The ridge is progged to strengthen during the
latter part of next week for very warm to hot temperatures
across inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:56 AM PDT Friday...For 12z tafs. Low clouds
have filled in along the coast this morning. A shallow marine
layer around 800 ft will keep low clouds confined to the coast and
terminals mainly cloud free with the exception of Monterey Bay
terminals. Light westerly flow will ramp up this afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions will prevail. Light to moderate
westerly winds expected to ramp up to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR cigs expected through the morning
hours with low clouds expected to scatter out around 16z. Light
winds.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:38 AM PDT Friday...Moderate to locally strong
northwesterly winds will continue through the end of the week
across the northern waters. Gusty winds will produce steep wind
waves and fresh swell. Two tropical systems in the Pacific will
produce a long period southerly swell to arrive over the weekend.
Interaction between the northwesterly wind waves and southerly
swell will create choppy conditions across the waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION/MARINE: CW


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