Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 070059
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PST SATURDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE TRENDING WARMER 1 TO 8 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH
4.7 MB BETWEEN WMC AND SFO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTIES. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTRICT DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE TAIL
END OF A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BAY LATE IN THE
PERIOD (NEXT WEEKEND.)

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO
TONIGHT AS WE HAD LAST NIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AFFECTING NORTH AND
EAST BAY TERMINALS FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP QUICKLY AT THE 1000 FOOT LEVEL
MSL...REACHING 20-30 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH
STABILITY AND WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS. THUS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT THE AREA TERMINALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME TAF SITES SEEING 10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BTWN 12-16Z MONDAY AT THE EAST BAY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KOAK. LLWS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
MORNING AT KSFO KOAK KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER
OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SEA BREEZE CONTINUED THRU 06Z.
INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL
AROUND 17Z SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY
MORNING IF STRONGER EASTERLIES SURFACE AT KSFO.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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