Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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426
FXUS63 KOAX 051112
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH STRONG WARMING INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING POPS AND COOLER BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
AND STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER WITH GOOD MOISTURE
POOLING INDICATED THERE BY SATURDAY EVENING.

UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IMPROVES WITH TIME ON
SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LOW WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY MODELS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WORKS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PRIMARY EVENT
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS FIRST MAIN WAVE LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION. TIMING BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM STRONGER FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANALYZED FROM WRN WI TO CNTRL NE AS OF 11Z
WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEWD WITH LIGHT WLY OR NWLY WINDS BECOMING SLY
BY EVENING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEAD



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