Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 141116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE COOL AND DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER ONT...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M NEAR
HUDSON BAY...AND WITH RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM NV NORTHWARD TO WESTERN
CANADA.  850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO MO/NORTHERN OK/TX PANHANDLE AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPE RMS RIVER VALLEY.  MOISTURE WAS FOR THE MOST PART SHUNTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH KOMA STILL HAD A 12C DEWPOINT BEHIND THE
FRONT.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z WAS BUILDING INTO EASTERN MT/WESTERN
SD...AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE INFILTRATING THE
DAKOTAS/MN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING EXIT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING...AND
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.  HRRR/RAP ARE
HANDLING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER WELL...AND BOTH INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY 12-
15Z...AND WILL EXIT THE CWA BETWEEN 15-17Z.  HAVE PLAYED CLOSE TO
THESE SOLUTIONS WITH GRIDS...WITH CWA DRY FROM 18Z ONWARD.  WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TRAJECTORY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION AND MOST CLOUDINESS WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE 70S WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS.
RECORD COLD MAX TEMP IN NORFOLK MIGHT BE THREATENED TODAY...AS
RECORDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK FOR COLD MAX TEMPS TODAY. TONIGHT...WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEB...AND LOWS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...LIKELY APROACHING
RECORD LOWS AT ALL SITES.  UNDER CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A COLD AND
DRY SURFACE RIDGE AND THE COOL SIDE OF THE DEEP GREAT LAKES
LOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 70S AGAIN...THOUGH RECORDS COLD
MAX TEMPS ARE A LITTLE LOWER AND ARE NOT AS LIKELY TO BE THREATENED
EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY OR SLIGHTLY COOLER. ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA...AND RECORD LOWS AGAIN MAY BE
THREATENED.  ONE MORE DAY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE ZONAL.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  BY LATE SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN...DEVELOPING INTO AN
UPPER LOW THAT DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY.
INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AFTERWARDS...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING ABOVE 590DM BY
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HEAT BACK INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD SHUNT
PRECIP POTENTIAL OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY CONT TO AFFECT THE KOMA/KLNK TAFS FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT OTHERWISE THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL 3
SITES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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