Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 250806
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS AN AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND LIKELY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH OF NEBRASKA CITY. HRRR/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND DISSIPATES IT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
MORNING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z.

OTHERWISE...VERY MILD AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN ON PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING POTENTIAL. LATEST MET GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND BY
KNOCKING SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST HIGHS. GFS MOVES THE
MOISTURE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND STILL WARMS TEMPS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER THE LONGEST...BUT KEPT READINGS AROUND 80 STILL IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

A FRONT DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT COULD
LINGER ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT
OCT 25 2014

AREA WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY BRIEF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID HAVE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT 00Z MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
MOISTURE...THUS PULLED THEM OUT FOR NOW. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
FOR HALLOWEEN HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND NOW...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA...IT MAY AFFECT KOMA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.

AFTER SUNRISE...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLNK AND KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ091-093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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