Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 290000
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
700 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
The severe thunderstorm potential with possible tornadoes is
ramping up especially south of a developing surface boundary from
near Sayre to a Stillwater line. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding
potential is increasing as well across much of Oklahoma and
The main line storms of interest from south of Hollis, Oklahoma
to near Knox City, Texas will continue to move northeast in the
next several hours. As low level shear increases (0-1 km shear
30-40 kt), the line will contain mesovortices that may produce
tornadoes, mainly quick and brief spinnups. Pockets of damaging
winds up to 80 mph may occur with this line as well. Heavy
rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are likely with this line as
it moves northeast, which may cause flash flooding. The Wichita
Falls and Lawton areas will be affected in the 8-10 pm time frame.
This line will likely continue northeast, but may weaken
slightly, by time it reaches the I-35 corridor from Oklahoma City
south to Ardmore in the 10 pm to midnight time frame, though still
believe there will be some damaging wind, tornado, heavy
rainfall, and flash flooding risk.
Will also closely monitor for the development of isolated
supercells east and ahead of this line in parts of western north
Texas and central and southern Oklahoma in the next few hours. If
they form, which is possible due to strong forcing and cooling mid
level temperatures to weaken a cap, very large hail and tornadoes
would be possible. Not sure this will occur.
The showers and thunderstorms forming from north of Lawton north
to Ponca City appear to be elevated and rather unorganized. This
activity has a much lower chance to be severe in the next few
hours as instability is weaker across northern Oklahoma compared
to locations farther south.
Forecast confidence in the TAFs remains low.
TSRA will affect most, if not, all sites in the next several
hours, bringing variable gusty winds, brief IFR or lower conditions,
and perhaps some hail. Confidence in hail occurrence remains too
low to mention at any given site. Think most TSRA will end by 10
UTC, though some -SHRA may linger in some locations.
Widespread IFR or lower conditions with BR may occur 06-18 UTC.
Only mentioned these conditions mainly north of KLTS-KOKC where
confidence of occurrence is higher compared to locations south.
IFR conditions will likely linger after 18 UTC near KWWR and KGAG
while other locations should improve to MVFR or VFR.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
Will keep this relatively short as things will start getting busy
this afternoon. Expect marginal severe weather with the storms
over northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon, but the main show is
beginning to develop in west Texas and will move toward our
southwestern zones. Much higher surface dewpoints are moving
west-northwest through the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and toward
our southwestern zones allow surface moisture to increase ahead of
the arrival of the storms. Severe storms will be likely with
storms tonight. Although with time this evening, the convection
is expected to evolve toward a linear or QLCS configuration,
airmass would definitely support some supercells this afternoon
and early evening. Strong forcing associated with the approaching
upper wave will create widespread storms tonight, so continue with
categorical POPs and the chance of locally heavy rainfall.
Precipitation chances continue tomorrow as the upper low slowly
moves over the area. Expect cooler air and a break in storm
chances Thursday/Friday before the next in a series of upper lows