Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         71  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           73  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

30/03/03


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