Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 310438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1138 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

06Z TAF discussion below.


mvfr/vfr ceilings expected during the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms will affect the area starting early Tuesday and
continuing into Tuesday night. The activity will likely be
scattered at times. There is still some uncertainty on timing so
haven`t done more than PROB30s at times for now. A front will also
slowly move south across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 819 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

Adjusted precipitation chances this evening, through midnight.

Large 500mb trough continues to churn over the southern west
coast. Farther east, thunderstorms continue to fire along the
western high plains. Driven primarily by large scale ascent and
supported by the warm moisture laden air from the Rio Grande to
the southern plains, scattered storms began to fire along a weak
surface boundary, just barely analyzed at 00z north of the Permian
Basin to the Llano Estacado. The boundary was evident earlier on
visible sat, where more congested cumulus development formed
within the larger cu field. As has been the trend over the last
few days, guidance continues to struggle with this large, somewhat
weakly forced environment. However, at present time, focus looks
to be warranted on the cluster that continues to evolve off the
Caprock north of I-20/Midland/Big Spring, as well as the isolated
storms still on the Llano Estacado in the southern Texas Panhandle
northwest of Lubbock. Current thoughts are for this activity to
continue to slowly evolve east and northeastward into the
overnight hours, potentially reaching far western north Texas late

Did not make any changes to the forecast after 31/06Z, as
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances still look to increase
through the morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

0z TAF discussion below.

MVFR/VFR ceilings expected through the taf period. Some
showers/storms could affect the area tonight but better chances
will be Tuesday. Activity will be scattered and timing is a bit
uncertain so difficult to know when/where to put in TAFS but do
mention PROB30s for part of the day Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

A few showers and storms may form during peak heating this afternoon,
otherwise partly cloudy and humid conditions will prevail into the
evening. A stronger southerly flow has returned to the High Plains
and near surface moisture is improving somewhat. Most models
develop convection during the afternoon over the high terrain of
West Texas. Scattered storms may reach western Oklahoma and
western north Texas during the mid to late evening hours with
perhaps a better chance over southwest Oklahoma and northern

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
by at least Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly
across northern Oklahoma. The front will continue to push slowly
southward Tuesday night into Wednesday with a continued chance
for scattered to widespread showers and storms. Heavy rainfall
and associated flooding will be a concern, especially Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday.

An upper low/trough over the Desert Southwest will move slowly
east Wednesday through Thursday before becoming nearly stationary
over South Texas by Friday/Saturday. Therefore, thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday for mainly southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas.


Oklahoma City OK  66  81  63  77 /  30  70  70  60
Hobart OK         66  82  62  78 /  40  70  70  50
Wichita Falls TX  67  83  64  80 /  40  50  70  60
Gage OK           64  79  59  75 /  30  60  70  40
Ponca City OK     65  80  61  76 /  30  60  70  50
Durant OK         67  83  66  79 /  30  50  70  70


.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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