Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220441
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS HIGH AFTERWARDS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE TO DECREASE THE
DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KLAW...KCSM...AND KHBR. MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF KGAG-KCSM-KLAW UNTIL A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DOUBT CONDITIONS WILL
WORSEN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS EXCEPT KGAG.

-DZ MAY CONTINUE NEAR KPNC THROUGH 18Z. A FEW -SHRA MAY MOVE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA 08-18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE TO DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY GIVEN SITE.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
10Z...KSPS AND KLAW 11-13Z...KOKC AROUND 15Z...AND KPNC AROUND
17Z. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND 23Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS NO OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE REPORTING DRIZZLE ANY MORE. MAY SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE LATER SINCE NAM SHOWS SOME RISING
MOTION AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT... BUT SIGNAL IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. SIGNAL IS ALSO NOT AS STRONG AS
FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TOO MUCH IN MOST AREAS... ALTHOUGH
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW AN AREA OF FOG TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE
AREA THAT MENTIONS FOG TO INCLUDE THIS REGION... BUT OTHERWISE
HAVE CHANGED THE DESCRIPTOR FOR THE FOG/DRIZZLE FROM AREAS TO
PATCHY SINCE THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TOO WIDESPREAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND PROGRESS QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL SKIRT THE REGION...MOST OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS STRONG JET ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE. COLD CORE SIGNAL BEING PROGD TO AFFECT
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND VERY LIKELY OVERDONE. ECM KEEPS PRECIP UP IN
KANSAS WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...WINDS AND TEMPS WILL
BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GETTING TO SEE THE SUN. BREEZY TOMORROW
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. COOL WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CHRISTMAS DAY. BACK TO COOLER AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  57  36  45 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  58  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  62  39  50 /  10   0  20  10
GAGE OK           35  54  31  41 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     42  54  33  44 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         45  60  41  51 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17



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