Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 091115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER...A BRISK NW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE ONCE VERTICAL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE
MORNING. TOWARD SUNSET...THE MIXING WILL AGAIN DIMINISH...AS WILL
THE SURFACE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRY AIRMASS THROUGH TONIGHT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GREATLY DIMINISHES...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZE DURING THE DAY. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS WORTHY OF A HEADLINE...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WILL BE ABRUPTLY WARMER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP IT DRY...AND AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE WILL BE ABOVE-AVERAGE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

THE BACK-AND-FORTH TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH
THURSDAY TURNING COOLER...FRIDAY WARMER...AND SATURDAY
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...AS THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
CLIPS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODEL TIMING IS NOT YET VERY WELL COORDINATED.
THIS...PLUS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...RESULTS IN LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  30  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         61  32  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  27  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         54  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23


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