Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 262120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
H500 RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF OK... TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS TEXOMA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING... LIGHT N/NE WINDS... EARLY... WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN UNDER SUNNY SKIES... WHILE TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK AND WRN N TX IN THE
AFTN... OFFERING UP A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.

AS SHALLOW RIDING CONTINUES... A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN STILL LOOK
TO BE THE WARMEST... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH AFTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST DPTS
SPREAD FRI AND SAT AFTN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW... FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE HEIGHTENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR WRN OK EACH AFTN
GIVEN BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

THE WARMER TEMPS WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT INTO MON... AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS... BUT MOST WILL NOTICE THE STARK CHANGE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY... BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TUE... WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF
PHASE... WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS... WITH STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26/06Z AND 26/12Z GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE... WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH FASTER. NEITHER SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION... MEANWHILE... THE RECENT (26/12Z)
EXPERIMENTAL 13KM GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...
LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IS GAINED THIS AFTN... BUT KEPT SLGT CHC
OF RAIN EARLY WED INTO THU.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  54  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         29  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  33  57  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           25  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  50  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         33  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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