Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 222027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
227 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms associated with the western most end of the
southward moving disturbance in the Upper Middle West, just
brushing the Island Park to Driggs area. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge transitions across this area on Tuesday, bringing
the warmest temperatures expected this week. This changes soon
enough when a low pressure disturbance tracks through Alberta and
Saskatchewan on Wednesday. A cold front trails back into SE Idaho
and will bring near advisory level winds to the Snake Plain. Most
showers and thunderstorms will be in the South Central and Caribou
Highlands Wednesday afternoon and evening, while rather dry air
advances across the Central Mountains. RS

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday. Models in general
agreement on placement of upper low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba late
in the week. There is even some agreement on short-wave energy
sliding southward into Idaho by Friday morning, though the GFS is
closing off circulation over Boise around mid-day Friday. Beyond
that, GFS maintains a higher amplitude pattern than the ECMWF and is
the wetter and the cooler of the two models. Maintained some slight
PoPs for Saturday and trimmed back coverage Sunday. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions should continue with upper
ridging the dominant feature. Isolated showers are possible at KDIJ
this afternoon. Marginal instability will be present so there may be
some thunder along the ID/WY state line, but keeping it out of TAF
for now.  Hinsberger


.Hydrology...Snow melt and runoff will vary with the swings in
temperatures this week, along with a chance of rain showers across
the Central Mountains and Upper Snake Highlands Thursday and
Friday. There is still a lot of snow in the mountains, especially
around Hailey, that is waiting to come off. Time to remain
vigilant. RS



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