Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 130235
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
836 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO CANCELL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL
FLOATING AROUND THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING
SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LAST DAY OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO IMPACT OUR AREA.  PRECIPITATBLE
WATER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE MONTANA IDAHO BORDER ISLAND PARK REGION.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS RANGE BETWEEN 83 TO 95 DEGREES...SO SHOULD SEE
ACTIVITY REALLY GET GOING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. WIND GUST POTENTIAL IS
AROUND 45 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MODERATELY HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 15500. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN SO LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS MAIN IMPACT. MONDAY A WEAK STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PUSH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER TO ISLAND PARK INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEASONAL. MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS DECIDING ON POTENTIAL WEAK
STORM SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE
PLACE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS BUT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECTED. HAVE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SUN MOST
LIKELY TO GET A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. GK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY.   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STORMS WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND
EXPECT STORMS TO BE WET.  EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.
A PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. GK
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









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