Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 230008
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
108 PM SST SUN JAN 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TWO SEPARATE TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WSW OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SOLUTIONS HINTS AT MERGING THESE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ABOVE THE FCST ZONES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THUS SEPARATING THESE TWO WEATHER PHENOMENONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. PRECIP MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS DURING THE NIGHTS WHILE ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. HENCE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST AND
VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SAMOAN ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS STRUGGLES WITH THE POSITIONING OF AN
EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM
IS PROGGED TO BRING A LOT OF RAINFALL NEAR MANU`A AND TUTUILA AT
LEAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST SHOWER
COVERAGE TO MINIMAL SHOWERS...AND VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...A COMBINED NE AND SW SWELLS UP TO 10 TO 14 SEC WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ARRIVING
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SAVAII AND UPOLU. FINALLY...A NORTH SWELL
TRAIN FROM THE NORTH HEMISPHERE WILL ENTER THE SAMOAN COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. PERHAPS SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW BORDERLINE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EXPECTED SITUATION AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR
4 TO 7 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

CB








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