Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 290816
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
616 PM CHST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CIRCULATION HAS PASSED FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS
NEAR 15N142E. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SEEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTION INDICATES
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH SATURDAY THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
COULD DEVELOP NEAR GUAM DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THEN. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TUESDAY AS WEAK SOUTHEAST WINDS
PUSH UP NORTH OF 10N. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING WESTWARD OVER
THE MARIANAS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALSO HELP TO INCREASE CONVECTION
IN THE REGION.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MAJURO AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE
CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
INTO KOSRAE STATE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF
KOSRAE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AFTER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF POHNPEI ARE
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE. MODELS INDICATE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
EMERGE LATE SATURDAY AT POHNPEI AS A CIRCULATION TRIES TO DEVELOP
IN THE STATE. A TROUGHING PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO EXTENSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
MONDAY MAY BE NEEDED. MEANWHILE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS AROUND CHUUK WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT YAP AND KOROR FOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY. LIGHT WIND REGIME AND AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE
SOUNDING RAISES A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/DEVITA



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