Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 252208
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
736 AM CHST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EAST
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. NIXED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY DECREASING TO 10 TO 15
MPH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST. BUOY DATA THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND
9 FEET. SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS INCREASED TO 4 FEET. THIS SWELL
OCCASIONALLY REACHES 6 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. THIS SWELL SHOULD
GENERATE A SURF OF 8 FEET. THE FOUR FOOT SWELL SHOULD PRODUCE A
SURF HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. EXPECT SURF HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ON NORTH
AND EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINED SEA
HEIGHT OF 9 FEET IS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS OF 8 FEET IS CLOSE TO HAZARDOUS SURF
LEVELS. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN NEAR BODERLINE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE EBBING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN NEAR 3N
ON THE LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
ALL THREE LOCATIONS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRESH TRADE-WIND SURGE IS
ALSO VISIBLE IN THE ASCAT IMAGERY...JUST EXITING THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE LEADING AHEAD OF
THIS SURGE NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR KOSRAE TODAY...POHNPEI UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND CHUUK
THRU TUESDAY MORNING. FOR MAJURO...DRY FRESH TRADES SHOULD DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THERE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SAME TRADES WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD TO KOSRAE BY TONIGHT...POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY TUESDAY
EVENING. A TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRESENT UPSTREAM EAST OF THE
DATE LINE...BETWEEN 4N AND 8N STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM 176W TO
BEYOND 165W. THIS FEATURE COULD INTRODUCE WETNESS TO MAJURO AND
KOSRAE BY MIDWEEK...POHNPEI AND CHUUK TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ON
KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION THRU MIDWEEK. SEAS NEAR
POHNPEI AND CHUUK WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BECOME
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AS WELL.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

KOROR AND YAP ARE IN BETWEEN A SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTH NEAR 13N
AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR 2N. A SURFACE
IMPULSE WILL SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KOROR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERATED BY A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAPAN WILL SUPPORT FAIR
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH PLACES THRU TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...TRADE WINDS
PROGRESSING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA SHOULD PROLONG FAIR
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN



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