Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 312031
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
631 AM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE CLOUDS THINNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS. SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 7-8 FEET AT THE
SAIPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HALONG MOVES ON TO THE WEST OF 140E A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN IS
SETTLING IN...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI APPEARS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP...AND GFS/ECMWF
BOTH KILL IT BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO BOTHER THE MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HAVE KILLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AS THE BUOYS HAVE SEAS NEAR
THE ISLANDS CONSISTENTLY BELOW 9 FEET AND MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
SEAS BELOW 10 FEET EVEN IN THE EXTREME WESTERN MARIANAS WATERS
WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE HIGHEST DUE TO WEST SWELL EMANATING FROM
TS HALONG. BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AS THAT WEST
SWELL SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY--DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH HALONG.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH PERSISTS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM
HALONG WEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS TO A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR POHNPEI AT 8N157E...THEN CURVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAJURO TO
ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE DATE LINE AT 13N178E.
MODEST CONVERGING WINDS NEAR THE FIRST CIRCULATION COULD TRIGGER A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU SATURDAY EVENING...AND
ALSO NEAR KOSRAE THRU SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
REST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER OVER MAJURO
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR POHNPEI GRADUALLY TRACKS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL ALLOW FAIR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER KOSRAE
ON SATURDAY EVENING...POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
SECOND CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING NEAR THE DATE LINE WILL
APPROACH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THIS WEEKEND AND THEN KOSRAE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE FOCUSING NORTH OF
10N...MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH LOCALES.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY
A TUTT NEAR SAIPAN AND ALSO A LARGE UPPER HIGH SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA.
THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT HALONG FROM INTENSIFYING TOO
FAST. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RELATIVELY SMALL WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HALONG. UNTIL ITS WIND FIELD STARTS TO
EXPAND...SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS ACROSS PALAU AND YAP WILL NOT
STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...CONVERGING SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR
YAP ARE TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR KOROR...THE
SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF HALONG WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THERE THRU
TONIGHT. ASSUMING HALONG WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE WIND SHEAR AND
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY DURING THIS WEEKEND...INCREASING MONSOON WINDS
COULD SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM YAP TO KOROR. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HALONG SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH SO THAT THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL RESUME ITS CONTROL OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON THE
SIZE OF HALONG...NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY IT COULD
CAUSE HIGHER SURF ACROSS PALAU AND WESTERN YAP STATE THIS WEEKEND.
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS SURF AND ISSUE ADVISORIES
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN







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