Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 300816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
615 PM ChST Tue May 30 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Dry conditions are seen across the region with only a few showers and
clouds seen in the area, mostly west of the islands.


The quiet weather pattern will persist through the week with the
exception of some minor island-effect convection over Guam the next
couple of afternoons. Neither episode is guaranteed, but with the
weaker winds and increased low-level moisture, much of the
ingredients for island convection are there. Models still show
increasing cloudiness next week from the south. Seas of 3 to 4 feet
will decrease about 1 foot over the next day or two, maintaining a
low risk of rip currents along all reefs and beaches.


.Eastern Micronesia...
Trade wind convergence located south of Pohnpei and Chuuk and was
bringing some isolated showers to the area, and will continue to
do so for the next few days. However, there is enough dry air
aloft that moisture is limited overall across Eastern Micronesia.
By later in the week, and especially the weekend, trade wind
convergence will increase and moisture will increase and become
deeper. At that time, shower and thunderstorm chances could
increase at all locations.


.Western Micronesia...
A trade wind disturbance will continue to keep Koror unsettled
through midweek before showers may become more isolated. Another
shot of showers and thunderstorms may come around Saturday with
light wind which could yield some island convection. Yap start out
fairly dry but could see a marginal increase in thunderstorm chances
as low level moisture increases. Chuuk will see some shower and
thunderstorm chances for the early portion of the forecast,
mainly due to the proximity of the aforementioned convergence
nearby, but toward the end of the week and the weekend drier air
moves in aloft, which should limit any thunderstorms.


Marianas Waters...None.


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