Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 212136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
717 AM ChST Wed Feb 22 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows isolated
showers moving through the Marianas waters this morning. A dry
season trade-wind regime is expected to remain in place for at
least the rest of this week.


Dry season style trade-wind regime is currently dominating the
Marianas weather, and it looks likely to stay that way through the
rest of this week at least. Most available numerical model
guidance is showing an increase in winds tonight. This would not
affect the land zones so much because of decoupling, it could
affect the water zones though. All will depend on exactly how much
the increase is. If it is only 2 or 3 knots it is barely worth
mentioning. However, most models are suggesting it could, however
briefly, hit small craft advisory criteria. Since it would be very
marginal and quite short lived, will leave that decision for the
afternoon package. We could then have another small craft advisory
next week, so mariners beware.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A trade-wind disturbance is generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across Kosrae and just east of Pohnpei.
Convergence east of the disturbance is producing similar weather
across the Marshalls to the date line. Drier weather will build in
behind this disturbance as it heads west. Trade-wind convergence
will bring a few more clouds and showers to Pohnpei and Kosrae
Sunday, but most rainfall is expected to be south of 5N.

Seas and surf remain below advisory levels at Kosrae today but will
remain elevated. Surf could become hazardous again by Thursday
night. Over the weekend, Majuro could see some minor inundation due
to the combination of lunar high tides and higher surf.


.Western Micronesia...
Dry weather will persist at Chuuk through the end of the week.
Models still show an unsettled pattern emerging towards the weekend
with increased trade-wind convergence near and south of Chuuk.

A weakening trade-wind disturbance over Yap and Palau will keep
showers and thunderstorms over both locations today as it heads
west. Weather will dry out tonight and Thursday before another
disturbance brings showers and thunderstorms to the region late
Friday and over the weekend.


Marianas Waters...None.


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