Area Forecast Discussion
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542
FXPQ60 PGUM 121926
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
526 AM CHST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
RAINSHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE REGION. BUOY DATA SHOWS SEAS REMAINING
AROUND 10 TO 11 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH
OF GUAM HAVE PUSHED WESTWARD OUT OF THE MARIANAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY BY SUNDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER
GUAM AND THE CNMI WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARIANAS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY
MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET BY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
ACROSS GUAM FRIDAY...BUT DID LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE DRY CONDITIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WINDS ALSO REMAIN GUSTY AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING
DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A COUPLE OF TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. ONE IS
NEAR POHNPEI WHILE THE OTHER IS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO NEAR THE
DATE LINE. THICK CIRRUS IS SEEN ELSEWHERE FROM CHUUK TO KOSRAE.
REDUCED SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION AT MAJURO BASED ON SLOWER WESTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE BY THE DATE LINE. MODELS SHOW BOTH
SYSTEMS SLIDING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD SPREADING. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...KOSRAE WILL SEE MORE MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE CHUUK...POHNPEI AND MAJURO SEE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...THE BULK OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEARER KOSRAE AND SOUTHWARD.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. SEA
AND WIND CONDITIONS ARE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AT CHUUK AND
POHNPEI AND WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO LATER
TONIGHT. LARGE NORTHEAST WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG
WITH A LARGE NORTH SWELL ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA WILL
CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE OF SIMILAR
CONDITIONS.

THE SHEAR LINE THAT PASSES SOUTH OF GUAM BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AS IT
NEARS YAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH
OF THE MARIANAS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE
FURTHER AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND
YAP. LARGE NORTHEAST WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG
WITH A LARGE NORTH SWELL MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/W. AYDLETT



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