Area Forecast Discussion
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
555 PM ChST Wed Jul 26 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Island showers triggered by light winds and island heating brought
locally heavy rainfall to parts of central and northern Guam and
even to Saipan late this morning and this afternoon. As of late this
afternoon, showers are dying out as late-day cooling sets in. Out
over the coastal waters, only isolated showers are seen on radar.
Winds are very light at about 5 kt from the SSW, and seas are running
3-4 feet at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
With similar wind and moisture conditions expected on Thursday,
island showers are a good possibility again. The models have light
winds from the south on Thursday, which is slightly less favorable
given the SSW-NNE orientation of Guam and the Tinian-Saipan island
pair. In fact, Tinian and Saipan may escape island showers if the
wind is from due south, keeping Tinian-heated air from crossing
Saipan. For now, have scattered afternoon showers for Guam only, and
the night shift can add Saipan if it appears winds will be SSW again.
The rest of the forecast is unchanged, as unseasonably dry conditions
should persist for at least the next week.

&&

.Marine...
Only minor adjustments Were made to marine grids, keeping southwest
to west swell somewhat higher this weekend. Have kept surf at 4 ft
or less for Thursday with SW swell of 3 to 5 feet, due to the
relatively short period. But expect the period to increase by Friday
with a more westerly swell, nudging surf up to 5 feet at times along
west facing reefs with a moderate risk of rip currents. Along north
facing reefs, the northeast swell will be more northerly Friday,
again bringing the rip risk to moderate.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
There are two main features over eastern Micronesia. The first is
an area of trade wind convergence which is bringing showers and
isolated thunderstorms to Majuro and the Marshall Islands. This
area will move westward over the next few days and bring drier
weather to the Marshalls over the weekend.

The second feature is a tropical disturbance west of Chuuk which
is bringing wet weather. Otherwise, more isolated showers and
thunderstorms are impacting Pohnpei and Kosrae. However, as the
convergence to the east approaches, these locations will see an
increase in showers.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Tropical Depression 11W is north and west of Koror and Yap and
moving northward and eventually westward. Meanwhile, a tropical
disturbance west of Chuuk will approach Yap and Koror THursday
bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Beyond
that, showers are expected to become more isolated, except for
some island thunderstorms at Koror with light wind through
Saturday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/Nierenberg



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