Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 302106
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS AOA 15KFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ


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