Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 022022
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
122 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SPARK OFF SOME HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS PWATS DOWN TO 1.36 INCHES AND THIS WILL
LOWER TO 0.75-1.00 INCHES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS. THIS ALL HAPPENS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE DRYING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX.
A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WITH HIGHS AROUND 110
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES AT
MOST WILL BE KEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE
TO THE NATURE OF MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO
SHAPE UP BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN
APPEARANCE AND WIND FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ


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