Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 302104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








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