Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 082118
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EXPECT EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEING AT THEIR STRONGEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS
15-20 KTS OCCASIONALLY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST.
ALSO IN THAT LAYER...BUT WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL...SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 20 KTS. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEING AT
THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB


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