Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 221108
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
404 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES RISING TO 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE INLAND EXTENT OF NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO SHRINK TO START THE WEEK...BECOMING CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER BUT STILL DRY WEATHER. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE STRATUS IS HAVING QUITE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING GOING
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUT QUITE LIMITED IN ORANGE COUNTY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED LIMITED SURGE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS THE
DEPTH OF THE MARINE INVERSION IS SHRINKING AND THE ONSHORE
COASTAL GRADIENTS ARE DECREASING. FOR TONIGHT THE MARINE STRATUS
SURGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP...ESPECIALLY TO INLAND LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND INLAND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INLAND AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COASTAL.

ON THURSDAY THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECM CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
DROPPING A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS SLOWER...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. WE ARE TRENDING A
LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE ECM AT THIS POINT WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. ALTHOUGH COASTAL GRADIENTS WILL
BECOMING MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE THURSDAY...OTHER CHANGES WILL NOT
REALLY ARRIVE TIL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-15 DEGREES INLAND WITH A MORE MUTED
CHANGE NEAR THE COAST IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH DEEP MARINE LAYER
AND COASTAL SURGE WILL BE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW THE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG BUT LOOK
TO REMAIN ONSHORE DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE
DESERTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATER OVER THE
WEEKEND IN THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...KEEPING
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA DRY...FOR THE TIME BEING ANYWAY.

FALL ARRIVES TONIGHT AT 729 PM PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...
220900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND EXTEND
LOCALLY INLAND BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE 1000-1500 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO 2000 FEET. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI...EXCEPT
LOCAL VIS UNDER 1 MI COULD OCCUR ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS
10-15Z. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BY 17Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
EVENING AND MOVE INTO COASTAL AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS AND
LESS INLAND EXTENT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM





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