Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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316
FXUS66 KSGX 032039
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR MILD CONDITIONS AND SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...SUNNY
AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN
COOLING AND MORE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM IS OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE
COOL THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN FAIR WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRATUS COVERED THE BEACHES ALONG MANY PARTS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS
QUITE WARM INLAND...WITH TEMPS AS HIGH AS 96 AT THERMAL AND 91 AT A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...AS OF 100 PM.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 34N/132W...SHOULD START TO LOWER
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT OVER SO-CAL TONIGHT. THAT WILL START TO DEEPEN
OUR MARINE LAYER AND RESULT IN STRATUS BEING MORE LIKELY IN THE
VALLEYS IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE AND BRING A COOLING TREND TO MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WEDENSDAY. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE MARINE LAYER FOR DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.
SHOWERS COULD START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK FRIDAY WHEN THE
UPPER LOW IS RIGHT OVER US AND THE MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST...BUT THE
LOW WILL MOVE SLOW ENOUGH THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
BEST FRIDAY WITH THE COLD AIR AND THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER US...WITH
500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -25 C. A THUNDERSTORM COULD HAPPEN SAT
AFTERNOON AS WELL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE SUN ANGLE IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS COLD AIR ALOFT. AT OTHER
TIMES...WE WILL RELY ON THE ONSHORE FLOW CAUSING LIFTING OF A LOW-
LEVEL NEAR-SATURATED LAYER OVER THE TERRAIN TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE HARD TO PEG AT THIS POINT AS IT
WILL VARY FROM POINT-TO-POINT...BUT GENERALLY 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH SHOULD
PREVAIL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL OF ONE INCH OR
MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 6000-7000
FEET...SO SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...MAINLY
SBD COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL BY AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
032030Z...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS MARINE LAYER
WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO FILL THE COASTAL BASIN AFT
04/0300Z. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2200-2500 FT
MSL...REDUCING VIS ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR TOMORROW...IF AT ALL...OVER COASTAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JT



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