Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 040913
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
215 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AND A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
SEATTLE AND THE ASSOCIATED MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PRODUCING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND
THE INLAND EMPIRE...WITH OVERCAST SKIES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. MARINE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE DESERTS AND
COASTAL AREAS. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND LOCALLY IN THE DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STRONGEST THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS.

THE MEAN TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR MINOR WARMING. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN DEEP WITH LOW
CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST TO
WEAK RIDGING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST EXPANDS
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING GRADUAL WARMING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH LESS EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AS THE MARINE LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. THE 00Z EC IS FAR
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE BY MIDWEEK AND BRINGS
IN SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES SHOW
WEAKER RIDGING AND ARE MUCH DRIER. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AND NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE EC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
A POTENTIAL MONSOON PUSH LATE IN THE WEEK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
040900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 2500-3100 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 4000 FT CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND THE
INLAND EMPIRE THIS MORNING. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN BR POSSIBLE WHERE
STRATUS NEARS THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. STRATUS SLOWLY CLEARING TOWARDS THE COAST 17-20Z...THOUGH
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC
STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 05/00-03Z AND SPREADING
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS ARE
EXPECTED.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&


.MARINE...
210 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...
210 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING AT 3 FT/20 SEC
PERIOD. SURF WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY...AND 4 TO 7
FEET BY SUN MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
CARLSBAD...WITH THE LARGEST SURF AT THE WEDGE IN NEWPORT BEACH. THE
SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MON WITH A MIX OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH SWELLS. STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HIGHER SURF...CREATING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT
BEGINNING MID MORNING ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SWELL AND SURF
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS


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