Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 272004
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN...AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. SO
FAR...SURF 10 FEET OR MORE...WITH MUCH HIGHER SETS...IN HUNTINGTON
BEACH AND AT THE NEWPORT BEACH COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATION SITES.
HIGHER AT THE WEDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT
SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LARGE.

BASED ON BUFKIT AND THE LOCAL WRF...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MINIMAL AT BEST...WITH STILL WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE A RAMP UP IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS. THE ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MORE MONSOON
IS PROBABLY ON TAP FOR US EVENTUALLY AS WE STILL HAVE THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER TO GO THROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
272000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS PEAKED AROUND 10
FEET TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER SWELL PERIOD.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HIGH SURF TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE
TO THE SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION...HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAINTAIN ITSELF SOMEWHAT IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS




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