Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240106 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED OVR INLAND SECTIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE
REGION BUT ALL INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING. AS WE ENTER THE
MONTH OF MAY WHICH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE
YEAR THINGS LOOK AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT LESS THAN 12 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 4 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT A MINIMUM NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING SOME THU NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THU IS 95F AND THIS WILL NOT BE BROKEN
AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
STT  79  85  78  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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