Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 241423
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION. BY MID-MORNING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WAS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED POP`S. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FORECAST
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

60


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  90  76 /  40   0  20  10
STT  88  79  88  78 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

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