Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 271507
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED AS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM AST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SAT THEN
COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE AWAY BY 12Z LEADING TO A CLEAR AND DRY DAY. CONTINUED
WINDY AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUT CLOUD
CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT NIGHT.

A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
MON-MON NIGHT WITH RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ERODING QUICKLY ON MON PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY
WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MON-MON EVENING. TROF AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO DRYING. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES MID TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIKELY RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA BCMG ISOLD BY SUNRISE AND CONT AT TIMES THRU
SAT. MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS FM VFR BUT THOSE FEW COULD CAUSE BRF
SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND BLW FL150 E 13-28 KT TDY CONT AT LEAST
THRU SAT.

MARINE...WINDS AOA 20-KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE 5-DAY
FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...24-HR TRENDS SHOW DEWPOINTS RUNNING 2-4F DEGS
LOWER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND RH`S AS MUCH AS 10 PERCENT LOWER.
DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTH COAST AND ST. CROIX. NOT AS DRY SAT SO NO FIRE WX
WATCHES ATTM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUN WHICH RESULTS IN
WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE BUT ALSO
IN GREATER FRICTION WITH A SIG REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  85  75 /  20  20  20  20
STT  85  75  85  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL
     PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

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