Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 200217
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1017 PM AST SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED AN
AREA OF DRIER AIR EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDREDS MILES. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IN LESS EXTENDS THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PR...
INCLUDING TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z. LLVL SE WINDS OF 10-25 KT WILL
PREVAIL BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING A LITTLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE RISING A LITTLE AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
LURKING OFFSHORE FROM USVI TO LEEWARDS. BUT OF LATE THE SHOWERS
HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE IN INTENSITY WITH SOME WIND DOWNBURSTS BUT
FEWER IN NUMBER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...BASICALLY BRIEF
SHOWERS THOUGH A FEW PROVIDE A WIND GUST AND A BURST OF RAIN. LEFT
THE THREAT OF THUNDER FOR WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING THERE...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY.

DRYING TREND SET FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY THOUGH A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL100 WITH EMBEDDED SHRA/SHRA
AND FEW TCU MOV WNW APPROX 12KTS ACROSS RGN MOSTLY EN ROUTE BTW PR
AND NRN LEEWARDS. BRIEF PRD OF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND VCTY MOST TAF SITES DURG REST OF PM TIL AT LEAST 19/22Z.
MTN OBSCR WILL REMAIN PSBL OVR PARTS OF THE ERN AND CTRL MTN RANGE
AND ALSO OVR WRN PR MOSTLY DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING SHRA.
LLVL WINDS FM ESE AT 15-25 KTS BLO FL120. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS BTW
25-30 KTS PSBL MAINLY WITH PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY.

MARINE...TRADE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING A LITTLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL HELP PROTECT PR/USVI FROM SHORT FETCH
SWELLS DOWNSTREAM FROM LESSER ANTILLES. SO DECREASING WINDS/SEAS
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  73  86 /  60  40  20  40
STT  77  80  76  87 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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