Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 291644
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
944 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Synopsis...
A chance of showers over the Sierra this evening through Saturday.
Thunderstorms possible over the Sierra Sunday afternoon and
evening. Breezy north winds developing this evening through
Saturday. Showers possible most areas by next Thursday. Above
normal daytime temperatures.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridging today will give way as an upper level shortwave
with a surface cold front moves southward. Moisture is limited,
though could see some showers early this evening and into tonight
over the Sierra. The Sierra south of I80 could see around an inch
of snow at and above pass levels overnight. The rest of the area
will be dry, warm, and sunny today, and this will continue into
Saturday.

The main issue over the next 2 days is wind. Winds are currently shifting
to the north over the northern Sacramento, and this shift will
move down the Valley behind the cold front. Surface high pressure
will build over Oregon, with the north to south surface pressure
gradient tightening and winds increasing. Winds will increase
tonight and become breezy, with windy conditions on Saturday,
especially on the west side of the Valley and over the Coastal
Range as a barrier jet develops. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect from 11 pm tonight to 5 pm Saturday.

Another disturbance drops down Sunday, and this will bring the
potential for mountain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening. Some breezy north to east winds continue, but will be
quite a bit weaker than the Saturday winds. EK

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Upper low in EPAC slowly approaches NorCal Tuesday into Wednesday
bringing synoptic cooling and a threat of showers over the
mountains. Models differ with track of low but pattern suggests
increased potential for showers over Interior NorCal Thursday
into Friday with possible afternoon thunderstorms over the
mountains.

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior Norcal thru 06z Sat except for
BKN-OVC AOA 200-250 moving SEwd over the area through 21z Fri.
Upper air feature moves over Norcal tonite and Sat bringing
strong Nly winds and local MVFR/IFR conditions in -SHRA/SHSN to
the Shasta Co mtns and Siernev. Nly barrier jet winds forecast to
develop on the W side of the Valley with areas 25g40kts 06z-18z
Sat and local NE-E g45 kts winds over Siernev.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Saturday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Clear
Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County
to Northern Lake County-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San
Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$


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