Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 061739
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
939 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm daytime temperatures will continue into early next week
under ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. Daytime highs
over the weekend will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
nighttime low temperatures around normal. High temperatures
returning to closer to normal by the middle of next week with
possible return of precipitation starting Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Sunny skies and warm temperatures today into early next week with
ridge of high pressure over Northern California. Temperatures are
expected to warm a few degrees today compared to yesterday with
increased subsidence and warmer airmass. High temperatures are
expected to rise into the 70s in the Valley and 50s and 60s in the
mountain this afternoon. These high temperatures are around 5 to
15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures will
be similar to a little warmer over the weekend and Monday. Temperatures
may rise to around 80 degrees in the Northern Sacramento Valley
this weekend. Record temperatures for this weekend are in the
mainly in the low 80s in the Valley- for March 7- Redding Airport
83 in 2004, Red Bluff 82 in 2004, Downtown Sacramento and Sac Exec
81 in 1953 and Stockton 82 in 1953, for March 8 Redding Airport 84
in 2004 and Red Bluff 83 in 2004, Downtown Sacramento 80 in 2004,
Sac Exec 78 2004 and Stockton 82 in 1953. Low temperatures will be
around normal with temperatures generally in the upper 30s to 40s
except upper 20s to upper 30s in colder mountain valleys and over
highest elevations. Winds will generally be light north to east
with weak pressure gradients over the area.

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Ridge begins to flatten and shift eastward by Tuesday as low
pressure system spinning offshore between 140 and 150 W slowly
moves closer to the the West Coast. Large spread in model
solutions continues and lends to low confidence in mid to late
week forecast. GFS continues to paint a faster, weaker solution
with a quick shot of precip, mainly across Oregon and far northern
CA late Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving the rest of the area high
and dry. Latest ECMWF coming more in line with GFS but still
depicts slower, wetter solution with precip over the area late
Wednesday into Thursday. This solution also features colder air
with lowering snow levels (but still fairly high around 6000-7000
ft). GEM a compromise between the two. Have continued with middle
of the road approach until clearer solutions appears which leads
to slight-low chc of precip across the area for Wednesday -
Thursday timeframe. Best chances across northern portions of the
area and mountains. Temperatures will be cooler than this coming
weekend, but still near or slightly above normal for this time of
year. Regardless of what happens mid- week, it looks like ridging
may return for Friday into the weekend with dry weather. CEO

&&

.Aviation...

Strong high pressure over Norcal resulting in VFR SKC conditions
with light winds through Sat.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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