Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 050856
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FACTOR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS VERY APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS  AND ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT IS KEEPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF EARLY
MORNING FOG/SEA FOG OVER THE LAND AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

CHANGES WILL BE COMING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES IN
SUPPORT OF SURFACE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE NATURE COAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE A HUGE WEATHER PRODUCER
BUT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...SUPPRESSING A RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...LEADING TO CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER BAJA TRANSLATES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES
EASTWARD WITH A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF BY
MID-WEEK. THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT A BIT COOLER FOR SATURDAY BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES
FOR NEXT WEEK AS FLOW VEERS EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERALL VFR WITH SOME SHORT LIVED
MVFR CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FOG LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE
PATTERN STILL SUPPORTS SOME FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FACTOR STARTING OUT WILL BE SEA FOG ONCE AGAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE TODAY WITH LARGE AREAS OF FOG
FORMATION. THE PRIMARY FOCUS AREA WILL BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST
WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING STRATUS/FOG FORMATION.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTHWARD AND THEN AREAS OF
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY THEN INCREASING BY FRIDAY MORNING...
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY WITH
SCEC CONDITIONS ALONG ALL OUTER WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EARLY
MORNING FOG ON THURSDAY MORNING COULD POSE SOME DIFFICULTIES WITH
SMOKE MANAGEMENT AND VISIBILITY ISSUES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL PREVENT ANY CRITICAL FIRE
THRESHOLDS FROM BEING REACHED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  65  76  55 /   0  10  10  10
FMY  85  66  83  63 /   0  10  30  20
GIF  86  64  77  55 /   0   0  10  20
SRQ  80  64  77  60 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  83  60  71  52 /   0  10  20  20
SPG  80  66  74  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.