Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 060745
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
STRONG U/L RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. U/L CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE U/L LOW WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE U/L DIFFLUENCE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND TODAY
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SLIGHT INCREASE IN EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL
HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH
HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AS SOME WEAK TROUGHING MOVES IN TO OUR NORTH. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS IN PLACE AND THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL LEAD TO THE BEST
CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SETS UP. A TUTT MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT
LOWER FOR THOSE DAYS...BUT OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.  BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IMPACTING PGD/RSW/FMY
BETWEEN 19-23Z.  TIMING VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ 16-20Z...AND LAL 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL RUN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED/SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  77 /  40  10  60  30
FMY  93  75  93  74 /  60  20  60  30
GIF  93  75  93  74 /  60  30  50  10
SRQ  92  75  92  76 /  30  10  50  30
BKV  93  72  93  73 /  30  10  50  20
SPG  92  79  92  78 /  40  10  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE


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