Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 282331
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
731 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS IN PLACE 24 HOURS AGO...HAS
WEAKENED AND CLOSED OFF INTO A SEMI-CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS UPPER LOW...HOWEVER...IS STILL THE
DIVIDER BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

IT WAS ANOTHER WET DAY ACROSS THE PENINSULA UNDER THIS ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AND MORE HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES. SEEMS TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
SUMMER...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE DECREASING FOR SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY FOR GETTING ANYTHING DONE OUTDOORS WILL
BE IN THE MORNING...AS RAIN CHANCE QUICKLY INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/00Z-30/00Z. EXISTING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY NORTH AND
EAST OF TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAILING LIGHT E/SE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. SCT TSRA LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS EARLY
SAT...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT KTPA/KPIE. THEN...SCT TSRA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP FROM 18Z TO 21Z...LINGERING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN TSRA...WHERE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS
MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH SATURDAY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AWAY FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE TREND AS BEEN FOR A WEAKER
AND WEAKER STORM...BUT THOSE PLANNING ACTIVITIES ON THE GULF
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  77  91 /  70  50  30  60
FMY  76  93  77  90 /  90  70  30  60
GIF  75  92  75  90 /  70  60  30  70
SRQ  75  91  76  91 /  40  50  30  50
BKV  74  91  73  91 /  90  50  30  60
SPG  79  91  78  91 /  70  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN



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