Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 181346
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS ON GULF WATERS...

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. A
BROAD COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW OF THE SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE ARE NOW
STARTING TO BRUSH THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. OTHER SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH OVER INTERIOR FL FROM POLK NORTHWARD.
WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS IT SLIDES EAST TODAY THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREATS... DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. IN ADDITION RAINFALL WILL
BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SOME FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/12Z...MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO LIFT BUT EXPECT
THESE TO RETURN LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN SHRA AND VCNTY
TSRA THAT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
EAST WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY THEN SW LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS CURRENTLY EASTERLY AND GUSTY BUT WILL BE
VEERING AND INCREASING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. A COMBINATION
OF ADVISORY AND CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE AND LOOK OK BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. NEXT ISSUANCE OUT AROUND 10 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  66  74  60 /  70  60  20  10
FMY  85  70  81  61 /  40  60  20  10
GIF  83  67  79  58 /  60  60  20  10
SRQ  81  69  75  62 /  60  60  20  10
BKV  82  65  76  54 /  70  60  20  10
SPG  82  68  73  63 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND
     LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION...11/MCKAUGHAN








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