Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 050028
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
828 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE PATTERN HAS
QUIETED DOWN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE PAST WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS ROOTED WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH TROUGHING ONLY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...AND A MORE ZONAL MID-LEVEL CONFIGURATION FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WAS A SCATTERING OF SEA-BREEZE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR...BUT MOST OF THESE HAVE
QUICKLY FADED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS FROM OUR LOCAL GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.

THE ADVERTISED RETURN OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO A POSITION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THIS POSITION AND HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL AREAL
FLOODING HAS COME TO AN END...AND THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO LEVY COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS OF 800 PM EDT THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER...SEVERAL LOCAL
RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...INCLUDING THE ANCLOTE RIVER IN
PASCO COUNTY WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN MAJOR FLOOD. WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE FLOODING ALONG THESE RIVERS FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS
AT LEAST.

SO...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS OVER THE
LANDMASS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS FEEBLE LAND-
BREEZES DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MORNING WILL START OUT QUIET WITH VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 80S. ONCE A WEAK SEA-
BREEZE ORGANIZES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR A
FEW SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INLAND FROM THE BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
STORM COVERAGE PEAKING AT 30-50% INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AFTER 19-20Z. THE SCT STORMS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE INLAND ZONES
FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING. JUST ANOTHER SUMMER DAY IN FLORIDA. IT IS NICE TO HAVE
THIS PATTERN BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY CHANCE FOR A BRIEF CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION WILL
ACCOMPANY TYPICAL SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR A BRIEF STORM ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT KLAL/KPGD/KFMY AND KRSW.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER
WITH MINOR FLOODING ON THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER...ALAFIA RIVER...LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER...MYAKKA RIVER...AND CYPRESS CREEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS PROVIDED IN
THE RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  78  90 /   0  30  10  30
FMY  76  93  76  93 /  10  40  10  20
GIF  75  94  76  93 /  10  60  20  50
SRQ  75  90  76  89 /   0  20  10  20
BKV  72  93  73  91 /  10  30  10  30
SPG  78  91  79  90 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING


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