Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 221453
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN THE
EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE GULF MAY MOVE EAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY
AREA AND NATURE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SUPPLYING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A BOOST OF INSTABILITY.

SOME EDITS WERE MADE TO THE RAIN CHANCE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...LIMITING CHANCES THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT INTRODUCING
LIKELY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NATURE COAST...TO GO ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF MVFR. KTPA...KPIE...KSRQ...AND KLAL COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF AREA TAF SITES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO BE AN ISSUE...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES DROPPING DOWN BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LIFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH. SEA FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COOLER GULF
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  66  78  69 /  30  20  30  40
FMY  82  66  83  69 /  10  10  10  20
GIF  81  64  81  67 /  20  20  30  40
SRQ  79  66  79  69 /  10  10  20  30
BKV  78  64  79  68 /  50  30  30  50
SPG  77  66  77  68 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





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