Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 142027 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ALOFT OF FLORIDA...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA MOVING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. TONIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS...MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RETRACT
EASTWARD AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FLORIDA WILL PASS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PULL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
MOST PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. A SECONDARY DRY FRONT WILL PASS EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA THURSDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 3-4 KFT...MOSTLY REMAINING FEW TO SCT IN
COVERAGE...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE TO
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS HOLDING AROUND 15
KNOTS OF LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA WILL SHIFT EAST AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES WILL AT TIMES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...BUT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEK. THE ONLY OTHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE HIGH DISPERSIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  75  63  73 /   0  20  50  20
FMY  57  78  63  79 /   0  20  20  20
GIF  54  76  62  76 /  10  20  40  20
SRQ  55  73  61  72 /   0  10  40  20
BKV  53  77  60  74 /   0  20  60  20
SPG  57  73  63  73 /   0  10  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...03/PAXTON
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON


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