Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 251841
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
241 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
A strong U/L ridge will remain over the Florida peninsula
through Wednesday with strong subsidence over the region.
Large surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic
will extend across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico...with
the ridge axis across the central Florida peninsula creating
weak boundary layer flow. Wedge of drier air aloft will
persist over the forecast area and will hold PWATs to around
1.5 to 1.7 inches. Combination of strong subsidence aloft,
decreased deep layer moisture, and weak boundary layer flow
inhibiting afternoon boundary collisions will lead to
relatively hot dry conditions across the forecast area
Wednesday. Strong insolation and decreased convection/cloud
cover will also lead to high temperatures climbing several
degrees above climatic normals.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms will develop along the west
coast sea breeze boundary during the early/mid afternoon and
will gradually push inland through the day, with a slight
increase in areal coverage of thunderstorms over the
interior during the mid/late afternoon where boundary
collisions are more likely.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night - Tuesday)...
In the mid/upper levels, ridging extends across central and
southern Florida while troughing extends over Georgia into
the Florida panhandle. This pattern will hold in place
through early Saturday when deeper troughing moves over the
eastern seaboard and will hold in place until the beginning
of next week. On the surface, a frontal boundary to the
north washes out while high pressure in the central Gulf of
Mexico ridges east. Not a lot of change is expected until
Saturday when another frontal boundary approaches northern
Florida. This will help to keep a west to southwest onshore
wind flow over west central and southwest Florida through
the weekend and into next week. This will bring another
round of increasing rain chances with 50-70% POPs possible
each day from Sunday through Tuesday next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly
vcnty LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY with LCL IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs.
Skies will become mostly clear across the region late
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will hold over the waters through the
remainder of the week. Very weak gradient will keep winds
less than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet through the
period. However, higher winds and seas will occur in the
vicinity of thunderstorms which will be the main hazard over
the next several days. Best chance for thunderstorms will
likely be during the late night and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant low level
moisture will persist across west central and southwest
Florida for the next several days. Minimum afternoon
relative humidity values will remain well above critical
values each day.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  92  79  91 /   0  10  20  30
FMY  78  93  77  93 /  10  40  40  30
GIF  77  97  77  94 /  20  30  40  50
SRQ  78  91  78  90 /   0  10  20  30
BKV  75  94  74  92 /   0  10  10  30
SPG  80  92  80  90 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn


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