Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 272344
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...An upper level disturbance will continue
to push southeast through the region this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will be common for locations mainly north of a Butte
to Bozeman line. Some storms could be strong with gusty winds,
lightning, and brief heavy rain. An isolated severe storm is
possible, mainly in the Great Falls, Lewistown, and Helena areas
early this evening. For Thursday, drier air will slowly start to
move into the region, but just enough instability over the
mountains for a few thunderstorms to develop. The storms are not
expected to make it too far off the mountains at this time, so I
kept lower elevations mostly dry, but some adjustments are
possible later tonight. On Friday, isolated thunderstorm are
possible, mainly over North Central MT as the upper level ridge
builds to our West. Afternoon temperatures will be near normal for
both Thu and Fri. Brusda

Friday Night through Wednesday...Weak ridging aloft will yield dry
conditions across the forecast area Friday night. Saturday still
appears to be the warmest day of the period with southwesterly flow
aloft and westerly downslope winds at the surface. Models continue
to advertise scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over far
southwest Montana through the weekend associated with a northerly
push of monsoonal moisture. On Sunday afternoon a broad closed upper
low moving through western Canada will produce increasing winds as
its associated surface low deepens and moves through central and
eastern Montana. This could raise fire weather concerns over
southwest Mt where lower afternoon humidity is forecast. Temperatures
trend cooler to start next week as the Canadian low moves east of
the region. For now it appears the track of this system will keep its
associated precipitation north of our forecast area. However, a
secondary shortwave follows along the international border Tuesday
night producing chances for showers across much of North-central MT.
PN

&&

.AVIATION...Updated 2345Z.

The air mass remains unstable and isolated showers and thunderstorms
will continue mainly across northern and central portions of the
region into this evening. Locally heavy rain is possible along with
strong and gusty winds. A slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will continue on Thursday although the coverage will
not be as great.  VFR conditions are expected through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  85  56  89 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  55  81  55  85 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  60  89  60  92 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  88  52  90 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  46  79  43  80 /  20  10  10  10
DLN  52  87  53  89 /  10   0  10  10
HVR  57  83  58  88 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  55  79  55  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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