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000
FXUS65 KTFX 240415
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
All highlights have been allowed to expire/or were cancelled
today...as quieter weather moves over the region for the next 24
hours or so. Winds are slowly decreasing and with clearing skies
east of the divide...temperatures have been lowered a touch in this
region. Small stream rivers and creeks across Southwest MT have
risen to bankfull...but with no significant melting or warm
temperatures expected through Thursday...the flood highlights have
been dropped for now. Scattered showers this evening are coming to
end over the eastern Plains...but will continue to affect the
western mountains through tonight. Expect showers to move off the
Rockies tomorrow afternoon...as an upper level disturbance moves
through. Precip on Thu should be fairly light...with showers also
being short lived.

Looking ahead...the Nam model progs about 0.50 to 1.00 inches of
liquid precip from Friday night through early Sunday morning over
much of North Central MT. Lighter amounts are expected in
Southwest MT...except Gallatin County...which could receive some
fairly good precip amounts. Snow levels will become rather low by
Saturday morning...and there is the potential for
highlights...either hydro/winter or both for this up coming event.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
Weak high pressure will build over central Montana tonight, isolated
evening showers will end, and the air mass will dry. A low pressure
shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and
moisture ahead of this will cross the Rockies and increase cloud
cover through the afternoon. Scattered showers will develop over
Southwest Montana during the afternoon as the shortwave approaches
but most locations to the north will remain dry. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  59  35  58 /   0  10  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  34  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  20  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  30  40  50  60
DLN  30  56  35  57 /  20  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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