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000
FXUS65 KTFX 100421
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1021 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2014

.UPDATE...
Will allow the high wind warning to expire at 9 pm this evening as
winds have decreased and are not expected to return to dangerous
levels. Have Added Glacier, Pondera, and Teton county into a urban
and small stream flood advisory due to the multiple reports of
water over state highways along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast as showers begin
to develop on the eastern side of the continental divide. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
Moisture across central Montana will increase tonight as an upper
level low pressure trof moves over the West Coast. This will bring
MVFR/IFR conditions across the Rockies and much of Southwest
Montana. These conditions will spread northward by late Monday
morning. Widespread IFR conditions and mountain obscurations are
expected through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another round of rain and snow Monday, followed by a warm- up
midweek, will likely increase snowmelt again and potentially
produce areas of flooding.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2014/

Tonight through Tuesday...Strong westerly flow aloft continues and
is mixing to the surface. The high wind warning will continue into
this evening before winds decrease and the main weather event
commences. An upper trof moves to the Pacific Northwest bringing a
large plume of moisture across southwest Montana later tonight.
Snow levels and temperatures will continue to be the biggest
sticking point with this forecast. Some valleys and lower
elevations will likely see rain to begin the event and then switch
to snow. When the changeover occurs is still a question. Snow
amounts should be high in the mountains with lesser amounts at
lower elevations. Temperatures will cool on Monday but remain
above freezing. Numerous winter weather highlights are in place.
The upper trof swings through the area Tuesday as upper ridging
builds over the west coast. Temperatures will remain near or
slightly below seasonal averages.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Medium range models are in fair
agreement through next weekend, depicting a progressive westerly
flow aloft over western North America, generally dominated by
ridging over western North America. An upper level ridge over the
interior western US Tuesday night through Wednesday will keep the
region dry with temperatures near to somewhat above seasonal
averages. On Thursday, a fast moving shortwave trough moves east
along the US/Canadian border, bringing increased winds to the
forecast area while most(if any) precipitation should remain north
of the border. Another period of upper level ridging moves in behind
the shortwave on Friday before a somewhat stronger wave moves
onshore in southern BC then digs SE through the Northern Rockies and
MT on Saturday. This system looks to bring another period of
stronger winds as well as a wind shift to the NW and cooler
temperatures along with a period of snow showers Friday night into
Saturday. Drier conditions look to move in again Saturday night
through Sunday as another upper level ridge builds over the Northern
Rockies. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  41  23  44 /  30  90  90  20
CTB  27  38  20  43 /  20  90  70  10
HLN  35  42  26  44 /  60  90  90  40
BZN  35  44  25  40 /  60  90  90  40
WEY  35  42  21  36 /  60  90  90  50
DLN  34  43  24  39 /  70  90  90  40
HVR  29  43  22  46 /  10  70  60  10
LWT  35  42  24  42 /  30  90 100  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 3 AM MDT Tuesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Jefferson...Judith Basin...Meagher.

WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight tonight to 3 AM MDT Tuesday
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis
and Clark...Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Monday to 3 AM MDT Tuesday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening For Route 287 over
Norris Hill in Madison County.

AREAL FLOOD WARNING is in effect for Lewis and Clark County until
Tuesday afternoon.

Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories are in effect for Gallatin,
Madison, Jefferson, Broadwater, Fergus, Meagher, Glacier, Teton,
Pondera and Judith Basin Counties until Monday.

&&

$$


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