Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
417 FXUS65 KTWC 090926 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 226 AM MST Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue through the weekend. High temperatures will be near normal through tomorrow, then several degrees above normal this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The benign and dry weather pattern continues through the forecast period. The low pressure system that is currently centered over the northern AZ and southern UT border and continues the dry westerly flow aloft. This system will shift slightly westward today and Friday before beginning to dip slightly southward before exiting the region by the begining of the next week. The low pressure system does not move southward enough to have any rain changes other than a slight chance (12%) in the White Mountains Monday afternoon. The afternoon breeziness continues each afternoon, with the strongest winds expected on Saturday. With this prolonged dry pattern causing low moisture and elevated winds continues elevated fire weather conditions, more in the fire weather discussion. After this system passes, there is a small shortwave trough that passes through mid week keeping the temperatures near normal. This will remain dry. Looking into next weekend, ridging and warming temperatures become the main pattern and possibly gives us the first chances for reaching 100 degrees. Currently the NBM has a 15%, 31%, and 25% chance for next Thursday, Friday and Saturday respectively. This is still far out, but something to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z. SKC thru the valid forecast period. SFC winds 12 kts or less thru 09/16Z, then becoming WLY/SWLY and increasing to 14-22 kts and occasional gusts to around 30 kts, especially east of KTUS including KDUG/KSAD/KALK. SFC winds then diminish aft 10/03Z becoming 12 kts or less overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will continue near be normal through Friday. Highs then climb to 2-4 degrees above normal this weekend. This week min RHs values will remain in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the mountains. Breezy winds continues each afternoon, especially areas along the AZ/NM border and areas east of Tucson becoming light and variable overnight. The strongest of these afternoon winds are on Saturday creating some near-critical fire weather conditions, but is currently not widespread and last long enough for any fire weather headlines at this time. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Tetrault Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson