Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 262137
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
237 PM MST Sun Mar 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions with mild daytime temperatures
and some gusty afternoon winds through Monday. A low pressure system
will then bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers Monday
night into Wednesday mainly northeast of Tucson. Dry and warmer
conditions return on Thursday, before the next system results in
another chance of showers and cooler temperatures Friday into next
.DISCUSSION...A storm system will begin to approach the region on
Monday, with the flow turning southwest ahead of this system. This
will lead to a few degrees of warming on Monday, along with breezy
conditions, especially east of Tucson. The models have been trending
to a more northeast solution/track with this system through the Four
Corners region, which will result in highest precipitation chances
northeast/east of Tucson over Graham and Greenlee counties Monday
night through Tuesday night. However, there will still be a slight
chance of showers as far west as Tucson during the day Tuesday. The
highest elevations in the White Mountains, such as Hannagan Meadow,
could pick up 1-2 inches of snowfall. This system will result in
cooler temperatures area-wide on Tuesday, with below normal
Short wave ridging will transition across the area Wednesday and
Thursday, with near normal daytime temperatures on Wednesday and
temperatures warming to 5-8 degrees above normal Thursday.
Another storm system is then expected to move into the region
Friday, lingering into early Sunday. This system is progged to be
stronger than the one moving through the region early this week.
Again, the models have been trending to a more northeast track with
the system. However, with decent height falls, stronger dynamics and
a little more moisture to work with, there will be a chance of
showers over portions of Graham and Greenlee counties, with a slight
chance south and west of this area. There will be a fairly sharp
gradient as far as precipitation goes with this system, so if it
continues to trend further east with the track, precipitation
chances across southeast Arizona will be greatly diminished. Breezy
conditions are expected on Thursday as the system approaches the
region, with breezy to windy conditions Friday. Also expect cooler
temperatures Saturday and Sunday.
AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
SKC to SCT high cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. Surface wind WLY/NWLY
10-15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts, especially SE of Tucson.
Wind diminishing to less than 12 kts during the early evening.
Surface wind WLY/SWLY 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts Monday
afternoon, with the strongest winds again SE of Tucson. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect low humidities, mild daytime temperatures
and breezy conditions Monday, especially in Cochise county where
near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Monday
A low pressure system will then bring cooler temperatures and a
chance of showers late Monday and Tuesday, especially to areas
northeast of Tucson. Farther south in southern fire weather zones
151 and 152, windy conditions and low humidities will result in
brief and localized critical fire weather conditions Tuesday.
It will be dry and warmer Thursday, before the next system results
in another chance of showers and cooler temperatures Friday into
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