Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250445
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. THE WIND WILL BECOME
STRONGER SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT
OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED THIN CIRRUS
PASSING THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL THIN CIRRUS APPROACHING SO CAL/NRN
BAJA AND THESE SHOULD PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

MAIN STORY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WIND...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
AND BLOWING DUST. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM...WHICH THIS EVENING WAS APPROACHING OREGON. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BE
PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST WHERE WE ALREADY
HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT. MIGHT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WINDS GETTING
NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS WIND
GUIDANCE HAS SUSTAINED 45-50 MPH AT DOUGLAS SAT AFTN. SOMETHING FOR
FUTURE SHIFTS TO THINK ABOUT. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED
BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND WITH
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITES.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
PASSING BY AT TIMES...WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
AND RANGE BETWEEN 17-22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING DRY AIRMASS/LOW HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SPOTS MEETING AND EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES.
THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN FIRE ZONE 152 AND SOUTHEASTERN FIRE
ZONE 151.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY RESULTING
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE...RESULTING IN SOME VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR MOST AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO REACH
LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF FIRE ZONE 152.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  RED FLAG WARNING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
   AZZ151-152.

  RED FLAG WARNING FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
   FOR AZZ152.

  WIND ADVISORY FROM FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
   FOR AZZ503-504-506>509-511>514.

&&

$$

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