Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232115
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 PM MST Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered thunderstorms into this evening. Some
storms will produce heavy rain, especially east and south of
Tucson. Gusty winds may produce areas of blowing dust northwest
of Tucson late into early evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will then prevail Thursday into early next week,
with the greatest thunderstorm coverage mainly east to south of
Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms should continue into this
evening. The overall evolution of development has closely
resembled a blend of mesoscale models. Storm cluster over Santa
Cruz County figures to push a boundary northwestward/down the
terrain. This could enhance storms ongoing over central Pima
County and also produce some areas of blowing dust. Will keep
blowing dust advisory going into early this evening. Latest rapid
refresh model shows the peak storm coverage around 6 pm. Some of
these storms could produce heavy rain due to slow and erratic
movement. Showers and storms could linger until at least midnight
east of Tucson, closest to upper level support.

Models indicate mid level ridging/high pressure starts to shift
into northern AZ as early as Thursday with resultant north to
northeast mid level flow over SE AZ. While storm coverage will not
be as widespread as today, enough moisture and instability will
remain in place for isolated to scattered storms, especially east
of Tucson.

As the high becomes anchored to our north, easterly flow will
keep enough moisture in place for daily rounds of isolated to
scattered storms into early next week. While eastern locales will
be most favored, any disturbance moving from east to west in the
flow could help storms to progress into the western deserts on a
given day. Timing of such an occurrence is difficult to pinpoint
however.

High temperatures will generally remain above seasonal averages,
but fluctuate depending on thunderstorm timing.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/00Z.
Scattered to numerous TSRA through 24/03z with MVFR cigs/vsbys in
strongest storms. Brief wind gusts 35-45 kts may produce BLDU
northwest of KTUS. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of KTUS late
tonight into early Thursday morning, then scattered TSRA east of
KTUS Thu afternoon. Otherwise, surface wind less than 12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An easterly flow will develop by Friday keeping
enough moisture around southeast Arizona for daily rounds of
thunderstorms into next week. Coverage will vary from day to day
but areas east of Tucson will be most favored overall. 20 foot
winds will remain light except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for
AZZ501-502-504-505.

&&

$$

KD

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