Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT GENERALLY WLY WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 10-20 DEGS HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS
THIS TIME FRI. 23/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS
0.39 INCH. 23/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH A 562 DM LOW CENTERED OVER SRN UTAH AND A 565 DM LOW
CENTERED OVER SW OREGON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
OVER SE ARIZONA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THE UTAH UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO SE WYOMING SUN. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW OREGON
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD INTO SRN ARIZONA. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 23/12Z
NAM/GFS PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO
AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

MEANWHILE...THE 23/00Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TO ONLY
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN MON. AT ANY
RATE...WILL AWAIT RECEIPT OF THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC BEFORE ADJUSTING
THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS WHICH DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN-MON.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL THRU
MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 10-15
DEGS BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL START SUN AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WED-FRI WITH
ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
KTUS VICINITY WESTWARD EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL. EAST OF KTUS...FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE WLY/NWLY
AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



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