Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240430
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
930 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect gusty winds this evening with a few showers
northeast of Tucson tonight. A brief warming trend early next week
will be followed by a stronger winter storm system around the middle
of the week, with a decent chance of valley rain and mountain snow
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry conditions with a warming trend
next Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Evening surface analysis showed that cold front has
pushed through much of the forecast area. Should be through
Cochise and Santa Cruz counties by midnight. Gusty northwest winds
post frontal with gusts mostly in the 20 to 30 mph range. However
they have been stronger, up to 40 mph, in NW to SE oriented
valleys. Post frontal cloud cover was mainly across Pinal county
and will continue to push E-NE across Graham and Greenlee
counties during the overnight hours. Radar was depicting very
light returns across northern Pinal county moving NE in Gila
county. As the associated upper level trof continues to move
across Arizona overnight, a few snow showers are possible across
northern mountains of Graham and Greenlee counties.

Cooler Saturday in the wake of tonights system, then a warming
trend into Monday before the next Pacific storms impacts the late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs Saturday will run 10 to 14 degrees
below normal and then be near normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/00Z.
Isolated -SHRA and higher terrain -SHSN mainly KSAD vicinity and NE
into the White Mtns overnight into Saturday morning. Otherwise,
scattered to broken clouds at 5k-8k ft AGL spreading east tonight.
Generally clear skies south of KTUS. Clouds decreasing rapidly
from west to east late tonight followed by clear skies to a few
clouds around 10k ft AGL Saturday. Surface wind wly/ nwly 12-25
kts with gusts to 35 kts this evening then diminishing late
tonight. Surface wind Saturday wly/nwly mainly less than 12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of valley rain and
mountains snow showers northeast of Tucson, and especially near
the White Mountains tonight. Dry conditions will prevail Saturday
through Monday night. A stronger storm system will then bring
scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers Tuesday into
Wednesday. Dry conditions will return next Thursday and Friday.
Expect gusty southwest to northwest winds this evening and again
Tuesday. 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven at less
than 15 mph at other times through next Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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